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The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

stevegattuso.me

51–60 of 82 posts

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#51
post #3

I appreciate the analysis, though I am not sure that any of the results should surprise anyone. - NY is moving away from nuclear (counted under "clean") - none of the "clean" sources can easily scale on demand. Sun, wind, hydro and nuclear have either fixed or random output - all peaker plants and less-desirable and so less-fully-maximized sources fall under the dirty category. Sun not providing enough juice? Ramp up…

> Sun, wind [have] random output While true, they do correlate to demand. The sun is going to be the strongest when A/C demand is greatest, shaving peak demand. Same with wind: a hot wind in summer will drive A/C demand. Same in winter with winds driving resistive heating or the 1hp load from furnace circulating fans. This falls apart when your system becomes significantly double digit solar/wind, but smaller contrib…

You also need power to heat, and there's usually very little sun then... sometimes even no wind.

Nuclear and thermal are both slow to ramp up and ramp down, and unusable for short term peaks.

Hydro is actually great for that, because you can regulate the power production relatively fast (as long as you have enough water).

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#52
post #3

I appreciate the analysis, though I am not sure that any of the results should surprise anyone. - NY is moving away from nuclear (counted under "clean") - none of the "clean" sources can easily scale on demand. Sun, wind, hydro and nuclear have either fixed or random output - all peaker plants and less-desirable and so less-fully-maximized sources fall under the dirty category. Sun not providing enough juice? Ramp up…

> Sun, wind [have] random output While true, they do correlate to demand. The sun is going to be the strongest when A/C demand is greatest, shaving peak demand. Same with wind: a hot wind in summer will drive A/C demand. Same in winter with winds driving resistive heating or the 1hp load from furnace circulating fans. This falls apart when your system becomes significantly double digit solar/wind, but smaller contrib…

> The sun is going to be the strongest when A/C demand is greatest

Not necessarily. There are lots of hot summer days when the sky is cloudy.

Also, there can be direct sunlight heating up NYC while there are clouds over the solar plant, which could be miles away.

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surprisingly, a decent chunk of America's nuclear reactors are in the midwest. Illinois and Pennsylvania are by and away the largest producers of nuclear energy in the US, with 11 and 9 reactors respectively.

Pennsylvania is not in the Midwest. According to most regionalization schemes, it's in either the Northeast or the Mid-Atlantic region. e.g.: https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/maps-data/maps/reference/us...

Western PA is for all intents and purposes.

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#54
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are they moving away from nuclear? They have a 100% carbon free target, which doesn't exclude nuclear and they intend to introduce a carbon price, which lets nuclear fight on an even ground with other carbon reduction moves. I guess it just didn't make sense financially?

> Why are they moving away from nuclear? Because in the US, Twitter determines policy priorities, not science or reason.

I think it’s more because, does it make sense to have a nuclear power plant so close to nyc. Even in a moderate fallout incident the city would have to be evacuated.

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#55
post #5
post #3

I appreciate the analysis, though I am not sure that any of the results should surprise anyone. - NY is moving away from nuclear (counted under "clean") - none of the "clean" sources can easily scale on demand. Sun, wind, hydro and nuclear have either fixed or random output - all peaker plants and less-desirable and so less-fully-maximized sources fall under the dirty category. Sun not providing enough juice? Ramp up…

Is there a battery technology on the market that can be used at scale or do we need to wait for this to be invented?

Besides existing hydro, there's biomass (like coal plants, just without the coal), new pumped hydro, thermal electric (where you heat up rock and use the heat to drive a turbine, still no full-blown plant), and chemical batteries like lithium-ion or flow batteries. Chemical batteries are currently too expensive for longer term storage, but lithium-ion are already competitive for peak shaving.

So no new invention is needed, but some of this tech needs maturing/getting cheaper.

Extending the grid is also often helpful, albeit still somewhat expensive. I think we need someone to work on making that cheaper.

If you just need energy for heating, you can store the heat in a big insulated pond with an insulated floating lid on. That's cheap, and good enough for seasonal storage. There are several of those ponds in production already, village-sized ones, but they're going to build a town-sized one not far from where I live.

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#56
post #3

I appreciate the analysis, though I am not sure that any of the results should surprise anyone. - NY is moving away from nuclear (counted under "clean") - none of the "clean" sources can easily scale on demand. Sun, wind, hydro and nuclear have either fixed or random output - all peaker plants and less-desirable and so less-fully-maximized sources fall under the dirty category. Sun not providing enough juice? Ramp up…

Why are they moving away from nuclear? They have a 100% carbon free target, which doesn't exclude nuclear and they intend to introduce a carbon price, which lets nuclear fight on an even ground with other carbon reduction moves. I guess it just didn't make sense financially?

It's a mix of economics, technical issues, politcs, and safety concerns.

The economics of building or even operating nuclear power plants continues to be unfavourable relative to either wind/solar, or natural gas (for peaking plants). Nuclear has, of course, a smaller carbon footprint than gas, but until that is built into economics (through emissions costs or higher costs for natural gas fuel), that doesn't translate into a financial benefit. Long-term costs of nuclear have been rising whilst those of alternative renewable and low-carbon sources (notably solar and wind) have been falling for well over half a century. If you're hiring^Wbuying based on slope rather than intercept, nuclear is not attractive.

Technically, nuclear power is poorly suited to peak-power loads. It doesn't ramp easily or quickly, and performs most economically when operated at constant power outputs. Gas (and hydroelectric or pumped-hydro storage) by contrast can follow demand-side changes rapidly, in a matter of minutes. For pairing with a variable-input solar-and-wind capability, something other than nuclear would be a better supply-side match. Pumped hydro, compressed-air energy storage (CAES), thermal-electric storage (e.g., molton salt), electric battery, load-banking (e.g., as thermal energy) or demand-side shaping (adjusting heavy loads to maximum generation) would be better fits. For now, natural gas turbine peaking plants fit the bill, though those also need phasing out.

Politically nuclear power is a challenge for numerous reasons, spanning those I'm raising and with others. The economics make for challenging financing and popularity, with very long lead and pay-off times. Cancellations of plants during construction or operation means that potentially-realised benefits are lost with major costs. In many ways, nuclear solves the wrong power problems (though it does solve the right emissions problem).

Nuclear continues to carry risks, and very-long-tailed ones, despite the claims of supporters. Many of those are not technical in nature, but operational, organisational, or reflect global threats outside the purvue of a utility itself. Nuclear plants typically have a paramilitary security presence armed, trained, and authorised to use lethal force. Relative to coal and oil plants, the net safety record is better, but one of the characteristics of nuclear power is the capability for things to go from operating very well to behaving exceeding poorly in a matter of minutes. This has happened repeatedly, across a wide range of designs, despite assertions of safety. Once things go poorly, then tend to remain that way for centuries or millennia. Long-term environmental consequences of fossil fuels notwithstanding, other power options don't have this specific handicap.

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#57
post #5
post #3

I appreciate the analysis, though I am not sure that any of the results should surprise anyone. - NY is moving away from nuclear (counted under "clean") - none of the "clean" sources can easily scale on demand. Sun, wind, hydro and nuclear have either fixed or random output - all peaker plants and less-desirable and so less-fully-maximized sources fall under the dirty category. Sun not providing enough juice? Ramp up…

Is there a battery technology on the market that can be used at scale or do we need to wait for this to be invented?

We know the fundamental physics and chemistry.

Your largest-scaling options are thermal storage (molten-salt thermal, not to be confused with molten-salt electric batteries), compressed air energy storage (CAES), and pumped-hydro. The last as with hydroelectric dams is limited by available sites and environmental impacts.

Any thermal storage or thermal-process generation (e.g., molten salt thermal storage, synfuel-based generation) will be limited by Carnot efficiencies, with about a 30% energy recovery to thermal input possible. Hydrolysis loses about half of input energy, hence the 15% return on synfuel storage.

Synfuels are another option. Most of these involve creating hydrogen, many (and the ones I tend to favour) will then combine that with carbon and/or oxygen to create hydrocarbon analogues or alcohol. These are very-long-term stable, and have high energy densities. They're valuable for specific uses already (portable power tools, vehicles --- especially off-road or remote, aircraft, and marine shipping). The total net energy recovery is low, on the order of 15--25%, but the storage capacity, the storage durability, the handling characteristics, safety, and extensive extant experience and capital for storage, transport, and utilisation, are all positives.

I've followed the electric battery story reasonably closely for about a decade. It's characterised by big promises and relatively low delivery. LiON is likely the best light-weight battery, for mobile and portable applications, simply based on chemistry. There are only so many light atoms, and the ones lighter than those we're using are exceedingly anti-social. (Notably flourine and chlorine.)

Air-metal, molten-salt, and molten-metal batteries might afford large-scale capabilities, though most research seems to have had limited success. All involve inconvenient behavioural properties of the electorlytes and cells themselves. None are well-suited to mobile applications. Several should be kept some distance from other infrastructure (e.g., residential/commercial zones, etc.).

Energy banking through direct thermal storage (hot water, ground/geothermal heat/cold storage, etc.) are possible, though would require considerable revisions to existing land-use and infrastructure interconnections. Reducing overall energy loads through passive designs minimising heating, cooling, lighting, and other loads, is also probably a factor.

We're headed to a future in which energy economics will be markedly different from those of the past 50, 100, 150 years. It's those economics which have shaped our activities, infrastructure, and land use. I strongly suspect all three to adapt substantially to the new regime. Assuming that the lifestyle we've become accustomed to will continue forward is probably at odds with future realities.

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - none of the "clean" sources can easily scale on demand. Sun, wind, hydro and nuclear have either fixed or random output Hydro scales on demand actually, somewhat slowly, but it does. Pumped Hydro in fact turns hydro power into a battery for perfect response vs demand. Nuclear can scale in theory: but its too expensive to scale down. The fuel is _basically_ free, so there's no point ramping nuclear power plants do…

I think it's somewhat useful to actually list numbers in these discussions. Hydro is great, but it tends to produce quite a bit less power than most people imagine. A lot less once you consider the relative size of not just the dam, but the reservoir behind it as well[0]. The biggest Hydro plant in the US is the Grand Coulee dam in Washington, with a nameplate capacity of 6,809MW. This is pretty impressive, but it's…

To your geography point: If the numbers I've found can be believed, Canada as a whole has 81GW of hydro generation capacity. This would beat out the US, despite Canada having ~12% the population.

Now, some people associate hydro with mountains. BC, admittedly, has something like 15-20% of the hydro capacity of all of Canada. Washington is similar.

Still, he biggest generator isn't actually BC, it's Quebec. Quebec has the largest hydro dam in Canada. It also has a greater total hydro capacity, and percentage of power from hydro, than BC. This despite Quebec not being particularly known for its mountains. Why?

Well, geography.[0] The Canadian Shield is pretty good for hydro. The mountains are more of hills, these days, but they were mountains once, and the corresponding rivers and height changes still exist. Also, you know that wonderfully cold Hudson Bay, especially the attached southern bit, James Bay? Yeah. It's cold. No one wants to live there. But water? Water wants to get there, so Quebec built dams, and now generates a bunch of power there.

Ontario, on the other hand, went mostly for nuclear. I'm not sure whether that's due to some inherent unsuitability of the land or rivers on the Ontario side of the Bay, or something else, but Ontario has several nuclear power plants, and relatively few hydro facilities.

[0] Okay, so I dramatized this paragraph a fair bit, but the message stands. Quebec has a very large amount of hydro generating capacity.

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#59
post #3

I appreciate the analysis, though I am not sure that any of the results should surprise anyone. - NY is moving away from nuclear (counted under "clean") - none of the "clean" sources can easily scale on demand. Sun, wind, hydro and nuclear have either fixed or random output - all peaker plants and less-desirable and so less-fully-maximized sources fall under the dirty category. Sun not providing enough juice? Ramp up…

> though I am not sure that any of the results should surprise anyone [...] none of the "clean" sources can easily scale on demand. Sun, wind, hydro and nuclear have either fixed or random output

That does surprise me a lot. Here in Brazil, it's hydro which follows the load. Nuclear has fixed output (always the maximum except when it's offline), non-nuclear thermal is mostly constant (with large changes whenever generators are dispatched on or off), solar and wind do their own thing, and hydro is the one left to fill the gaps between generation and demand. See it for yourself at http://www.ons.org.br/paginas/energia-agora/carga-e-geracao (select "SIN" on the first drop-down for the whole country); selecting "Geração Hidráulica" (hydro) on the second drop-down you can see how well the shape of the generation curve matches the shape of the demand curve at the top, while for instance "Geração Térmica" (non-nuclear thermal) is nearly flat.

Re: The data behind New York's increasingly dirty electricity peaks

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New York introduced subsidies to keep nuclear plants operating just a few years ago: "Five states have implemented programs to assist nuclear power plants" https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41534 It says that some nuclear plants in New York receive subsidies since 2017. I don't know what the New York selection criteria are. Maybe Indian Point just didn't qualify like other plants did, and (regrettably)…

Indian Point has always been a political flashpoint because of how close it is to NYC, just 36 miles north and in the middle of the suburban bits of the metro area.

>in the middle of the suburban bits of the metro area

I.e. the rich people who have the spare fucks to give about this sort of thing.

If it were in a crap neighborhood in Newark nobody would care.

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