Michael Burry was also famously (and vocally) short TSLA for many years until he finally folded and closed his positions recently. I'm not crazy bullish on crypto myself, but it is pointless to hold the opinion of a few analysts/fund managers above the rest just because they made some good bets in the past. The one thing that the market has shown is that no one knows which way any security will go tomorrow – not Buffett, not Burry and not you or me.
Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
51–60 of 227 posts
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#52It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.
> It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop. Many things have actually no intrinsic value (like art) yet don't lose value over time that much.
Art has value as a money laundering scheme and so do NFT’s.
Although I’m hopeful maybe someone will find a decent use case for them.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or - and hear me out here - you're simply misinformed.
If this is really the case and not just an opinion, you should be able to easy show that Tether is not a fraud. Can you do this? I don't think so because Tether itself has never shown as much. Calling me "misinformed" without any easily verifiable basis in fact would suggest that perhaps you are a participant in the fraud somehow.
I do believe Tether is one huge lie.
The fact that it does continue to operate in spite of that being increasingly clear to most people interested in crypto is because there is a need for something like it.
It's very unfortunate that they (the Tether operators) were the first to implement this at scale and are a bunch of crooks.
However, what is very much less clear is what will happen when (not if) Tether explodes.
How will it affect BTCUSD?
I claim that BTC will be affected (up or down, who knows), but certainly won't die because of it.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#54I'm really amazed at these comments. Every time Bitcoin goes through a major move, the "bubble" crowd comes out of the woodwork, while having done absolutely no effort in understanding what Bitcoin is.
> having done absolutely no effort in understanding what Bitcoin is
To see its value, I don't need to make an effort to understand what a pear is, or a bar of gold, or a house.
I and others have looked at Bitcoin, and its trillion dollar market cap (which means Bitcoins are worth more than JP Morgan Chase and Johnson and Johnson put together) and realized it has absolutely no value.
At least subprime mortgages, 1999 dot-bomb stocks and the like had some value. Bitcoin has no value. On the next market contraction like 2008 or 2000 or the like Bitcoin value will collapse. Maybe even before that.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#55It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.
I became convinced that NFTs are worth something after understanding that there is little difference between an outrageously expensive watch and a rare NFT.
One shows off your wealth in person, the other will let you show it off online.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#56Michael Burry was also famously (and vocally) short TSLA for many years until he finally folded and closed his positions recently. I'm not crazy bullish on crypto myself, but it is pointless to hold the opinion of a few analysts/fund managers above the rest just because they made some good bets in the past. The one thing that the market has shown is that no one knows which way any security will go tomorrow – not Buff…
I don't think that's a sign of Burry being wrong, it very well could mean he couldn't stay solvent in that position longer than the irrationality of the market.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#57It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.
What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews. Mostly based on speculation.
> What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews.
Why does that surprise you? As the article from this discussion shows, there is strong evidence supporting the idea that crypto in general "it's just a big scheme".
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
When btc becomes overleveraged, we simply see a -25% flashcrash. They happen every couple months.
Maybe. I'm just an armchair economist. I don't have quantitative evidence, but you can imagine that the overall degree of leveraging can affect the local-in-time price dynamics and push them into a phase change from a flash crash regime to a `bigger problems` regime. The saving grace to date has been that Bitcoin is a fundamentally financialization-resistant technology, but it still lives in and interacts with the re…
I'm qualitatively in agreement -- I had day-traded bitcoin many years ago and sold off my last small holdings over the weekend.
I had a forcing function that made the sale timely, but $62k/BTC was close-enough to my ~$100k/BTC target that it seemed silly to try to squeak out the remaining ~50% gain given the downside risk. It is strange no longer holding any cryptocurrency, but it is harder to see the future of crypto, as an investment, now than it was back at $30.
Blockchains are here to stay and the underlying technology is proven, but as a fraction of M1, it is harder to know where the prices might go and which crypto will emerge as the ultimate winner. Alternatively, if crypto is to go through a "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win" experience, I believe we're just beginning the "then they fight you" stage, which may be challenging for investors.
Over all of this is my feeling that, looking with a logarithmic perspective (the only way one should view Bitcoin), there is now a lot more distance for prices, especially of any one currency, to fall than there is for prices to rise. I asked myself the perpetual question, "If markets were to close for the next five years, would I be happier holding BTC or USD at the present price?" The answer was no longer emphatically BTC.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop. Many things have actually no intrinsic value (like art) yet don't lose value over time that much.
Art has value as a money laundering scheme and so do NFT’s. Although I’m hopeful maybe someone will find a decent use case for them.
> Art has value as a money laundering scheme
That's IMO a very reductive view. While - true - art is used to launder money, that's not the only thing that lends it value.
If that wasn't the case, there wouldn't be any brick and mortar museums left in the world and you could buy the original Mona Lisa for a dime - since everyone else would have a 16k x 16k reproduction of it, essentially identical to the original.
Somehow, that does not happen.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#60It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.
I became convinced that NFTs are worth something after understanding that there is little difference between an outrageously expensive watch and a rare NFT. One shows off your wealth in person, the other will let you show it off online.
How? You can't see if I own any NFTs right now. You can't see it in gmail. You can't see it on facebook. You don't get ads saying "rich NFT holders in your area!". No one knows or cares if you own an NFT.