How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says • Hacker News Board

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#51

Post by anonymouswacker » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:12 AM UTC

oxymoran wrote: post #26

mint2 wrote: post #18

This title is editorialized to be misleading. It’s specifically the nose not in general. It does not mean the viral load in the lungs is the same. And studies indicate vaccinated ppl may stay infectious a shorter timespan.

Why is nobody recommending a highly saline nasal irrigation as a prophylactic? Or even a lower saline nasal irrigation with a very diluted amount of hydrogen peroxide???

Some do [0]. But obviously the gov & corporations controlling them prefer a more expensive prophylactic than a dirt cheap one.

0 - https://chrismasterjohnphd.com/covid-19/povidone-iodine-kill...

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#52

Post by sterlind » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:13 AM UTC

meheleventyone wrote: post #49

vsef wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the consensus is that they reduce severity but also protect against contracting, just at lower efficacy rate than against earlier variants. They still reduce cases versus not having them.

You can see this happening here in Iceland where we’re going through a surge in cases thanks to Delta but almost the entire adult population is vaccinated: https://www.ruv.is/frett/2021/08/12/janssen-group-most-at-ri... https://www.ruv.is/frett/2021/08/12/people-told-vaccinate-to... > “Diagnosis of infection is three-times more likely in the non-vaccinated than the vaccinated, the likelihood of hospital admission is…

Maybe having gotten vaccinated, if I got Delta the serum antibodies would protect me from serious illness, and I'd gain mucosal immunity from the upper respiratory tract infection to complete the set? Not that I'm planning to get infected; I'm just looking for silver linings to soothe myself about the possibility.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#53

Post by leereeves » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:16 AM UTC

meheleventyone wrote: post #49

vsef wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the consensus is that they reduce severity but also protect against contracting, just at lower efficacy rate than against earlier variants. They still reduce cases versus not having them.

You can see this happening here in Iceland where we’re going through a surge in cases thanks to Delta but almost the entire adult population is vaccinated: https://www.ruv.is/frett/2021/08/12/janssen-group-most-at-ri... https://www.ruv.is/frett/2021/08/12/people-told-vaccinate-to... > “Diagnosis of infection is three-times more likely in the non-vaccinated than the vaccinated, the likelihood of hospital admission is…

It seems to me that the key phrase there is "diagnosis of infection". That's likely to be reduced by protecting against symptoms, because asymptomatic people are unlikely to be tested.

Is anyone doing regular tests on large groups of people to measure the rate of asymptomatic infections?

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#54

Post by jbigelow76 » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:18 AM UTC

drno123 wrote: post #42

walterbell wrote: post #25

Vaccines delivered to the arm deltoid muscle never promised mucosal immunity. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7733922/ > The mucosal immune system is the largest component of the entire immune system, having evolved to provide protection at the main sites of infectious threat: the mucosae. As SARS-CoV-2 initially infects the upper respiratory tract, its first interactions with the immune system must occu…

Thank you for the clear explanation. Here in Europe we have Covid passports - if you are vaccinated or tested negative, you are allowed admission to, for example, shopping malls and no need to wear a mask indoors. Does this mean that Covid passports actually help spread Covid from vaccinated to non-vaccinated people who mix together without masks?

Does this mean that Covid passports actually help spread Covid from vaccinated to non-vaccinated people who mix together without masks?

Not crazy about the wording of that sentence; it reads, to me at least, that the vaccinated kind of "duped" the un-vaccinated into thinking intermingling was safe. It removes the agency from the un-vaccinated, as if remaining both un-vaccinated[1] and mitigation of possible exposure is beyond their control.

(Nobody asked me but...) I would have worded it more like: "Does this mean that the un-vaccinated, hoping to parlay herd immunity into abdication of personal and societal responsibility, ended up playing themselves?"[2]

[1] I'm separating the legit medically immuno-compromised from voluntarily un-vaxxed.

[2] I'm in Texas and was fully vaccinated as early as possible with two kids that can't be vaccinated yet and am currently watching a surge drown our local hospitals so I'm super fucking jaded.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#55

Post by walterbell » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:21 AM UTC

ignoramous wrote: post #43

walterbell wrote: post #25

Vaccines delivered to the arm deltoid muscle never promised mucosal immunity. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7733922/ > The mucosal immune system is the largest component of the entire immune system, having evolved to provide protection at the main sites of infectious threat: the mucosae. As SARS-CoV-2 initially infects the upper respiratory tract, its first interactions with the immune system must occu…

Thanks. > There are new Covid vaccines in development which provide sterilizing immunity... How far along are those and how long before they hit the shelf? I am guessing these can be self-administered?

It's still quite early, Phase 1 trials are underway for nasal-delivery vaccines from Spain, China and US.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas...

https://www.statnews.com/2021/08/10/covid-intranasal-vaccine...

In theory, a vaccine delivered via inhaler requires little or no training for administration, so the supply chain would be simplified. Given the current focus on vaccine passports, governments will probably want an approved witness to the vaccine being administered, even if they could technically be self-administered.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#56

Post by sterlind » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:22 AM UTC

anonymouswacker wrote: post #51

oxymoran wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is nobody recommending a highly saline nasal irrigation as a prophylactic? Or even a lower saline nasal irrigation with a very diluted amount of hydrogen peroxide???

Some do [0]. But obviously the gov & corporations controlling them prefer a more expensive prophylactic than a dirt cheap one. 0 - https://chrismasterjohnphd.com/covid-19/povidone-iodine-kill...

the idea of using povidone-iodine as a nasal prophylactic is interesting, but I think your explanation is lazy. for one, it's hard enough to get people to wear masks, much less snorting cleaner every morning! second, if this works, why wouldn't doctors and nurses be using it? they were at tons of risk before the vaccines.

edit: less sketchy link to a study of Iota-Carrageenan nasal spray for covid prophylaxis: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.13.21255409v... not peer reviewed, but a registered clinical trial reporting positive results.

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#57

Post by meheleventyone » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:24 AM UTC

leereeves wrote: post #53

meheleventyone wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see this happening here in Iceland where we’re going through a surge in cases thanks to Delta but almost the entire adult population is vaccinated: https://www.ruv.is/frett/2021/08/12/janssen-group-most-at-ri... https://www.ruv.is/frett/2021/08/12/people-told-vaccinate-to... > “Diagnosis of infection is three-times more likely in the non-vaccinated than the vaccinated, the likelihood of hospital admission is…

It seems to me that the key phrase there is "diagnosis of infection". That's likely to be reduced by protecting against symptoms, because asymptomatic people are unlikely to be tested. Is anyone doing regular tests on large groups of people to measure the rate of asymptomatic infections?

I know the UK is: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

Iceland has been as well you can see the breakdown on where infections came from here: https://www.covid.is/data

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#58

Post by Uberphallus » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:27 AM UTC

rdtwo wrote: post #4

Vaccine passports are dumb for this reason. Somebody choosing to be at higher risk does not increase the risk to other other than clogging up hospital resources

> Somebody choosing to be at higher risk does not increase the risk to other other than clogging up hospital resources

So it doesn't have an impact except for when it does?

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#59

Post by walterbell » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:31 AM UTC

drno123 wrote: post #42

walterbell wrote: post #25

Vaccines delivered to the arm deltoid muscle never promised mucosal immunity. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7733922/ > The mucosal immune system is the largest component of the entire immune system, having evolved to provide protection at the main sites of infectious threat: the mucosae. As SARS-CoV-2 initially infects the upper respiratory tract, its first interactions with the immune system must occu…

Thank you for the clear explanation. Here in Europe we have Covid passports - if you are vaccinated or tested negative, you are allowed admission to, for example, shopping malls and no need to wear a mask indoors. Does this mean that Covid passports actually help spread Covid from vaccinated to non-vaccinated people who mix together without masks?

Statistically most people, vaccinated or non-vaccinated, are not infected. Once infected, both vaccinated or non-vaccinated can transmit if there is sufficiently high viral load. Normally, a high viral load causes symptoms that would cause someone to self-isolate or fail a temperature check, reducing transmission. Because a vaccinated person can be infected without symptoms, there may be some cases where they should be isolating, but are not, and are thus transmitting to anyone, vaccinated or not.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210729/cdc-reverses-guidan...

> Even if they’re not showing symptoms, fully vaccinated people should “get tested 3-5 days after exposure to someone with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 and wear a mask in public indoor settings for 14 days after exposure or until they receive a negative test result,” the agency’s website says. The CDC previously said fully vaccinated people didn’t need testing after exposure unless they showed symptoms. “Our updated guidance recommends vaccinated people get tested upon exposure regardless of symptoms,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, told The New York Times in an email. “Testing is widely available.”

Stanford University will test all students, including those who are vaccinated, https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status/1425554996683149313

A subset of all populations globally, especially in young people, have already recovered from a Covid variant and have some natural immunity, which is sterilizing immunity (both upper respiratory system--since that is how they got naturally infected--and serum antibodies + T-cells). Governments have the option of performing national sero-surveys to statistically estimate the percentage who are already immune without a vaccine. Individuals who can afford to pay for testing can determine if they have natural immunity, including the newest FDA-EUA test for T-cells (costs $210 with blood draw, only in US for now), https://t-detect.com

Re: How do vaccinated people spread Delta? What the science says

#60

Post by leereeves » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 6:42 AM UTC

meheleventyone wrote: post #57

leereeves wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me that the key phrase there is "diagnosis of infection". That's likely to be reduced by protecting against symptoms, because asymptomatic people are unlikely to be tested. Is anyone doing regular tests on large groups of people to measure the rate of asymptomatic infections?

I know the UK is: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... Iceland has been as well you can see the breakdown on where infections came from here: https://www.covid.is/data

Very interesting, thank you for those links.

According to the second link, 255k people have been vaccinated in Iceland, out of a population of 364k (according to Wikipedia). So about 70% of the population has been vaccinated.

And according to the chart "Number of vaccinated individuals among domestic infections", about 60% of infections are among fully vaccinated people.

That suggests vaccination may not reduce the chance of infection much. As does the recent spike (the largest to date) in the "14-day incidence per 100 000 inhabitants" despite 70% vaccination.

Vaccination is still worthwhile, of course, to protect against severe illness, but if neither vaccination nor previous illness will prevent infection, it seems like COVID is going to be an illness we'll experience many times in our lives (hopefully with less impact once our immune systems adapt).