Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Been Told

Post by newbamboo » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 6:23 PM UTC

HarryHirsch wrote: post #14

jhayward wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He's right in a way, being vaccinated keeps you out of hospital, but it won't prevent you that much from catching the disease and developing post-covid syndrome This is misinformation. From the data we have available, vaccination prevents at least 80% of symptomatic infections with the Delta variant. To characterize an 80% reduction in risk as “not that much” is simply trying to get people to give up on vaccines.

You see papers claiming an effectiveness against symptomatic infection against Delta of ~ 50 %, and the rise of cases in Israel as well as the Provincetown outbreak should really make us concerned. The vaccine still prevents hospitalization and death, so that's reason enough to take it. But on its own it isn't enough to get R_0 below 1. The way everyone is behaving, they are asking for outbreak after outbreak.

Post by nradov » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 8:13 PM UTC

Mikeb85 wrote: post #49

mint2 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he meant to ask about rates. The term risk is slightly ambiguous. Death or long term disability is the risk of Covid. The rates of those outcomes are extremely higher for the actual disease. I Feel like a lot of people are falling into a “Both sides” or “fair and balanced” type trap by over indexing on that in theory the outcome could be the same, while ignoring the elephant in the room that the odds are vast…

> The rates of those outcomes are extremely higher for the actual disease. But the risk of catching the disease is less than 100%. So you need to weigh the risk of the vaccine versus your risk of catching the disease AND dying. Do the probability of negative outcomes of AZ for women 20-40 versus the probability of catching Covid during a given timeframe AND dying for that same age group. There's a reason many countri…

Post by newbamboo » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 9:56 PM UTC

chiefalchemist wrote: post #54

newbamboo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it’s at 47% now if I’m up to date.

Wasn't it up around 75% in Providence RI? Yes, an outlier but it's indicative of the potential.

Post by SideburnsOfDoom » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 7:06 AM UTC

infamouscow wrote: post #31

deegles wrote: post #19

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The science on this is clear, please update your stance. Natural immunity is not as protective as vaccine induced immunity. It is in fact 2.3x more likely that you will get reinfected while unvaccinated, and a stronger immune response from the vaccine means fewer people end up hospitalized. See: > Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Vaccination https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.ht…

The reason for this global effort was because SARS-CoV2 was overrunning healthcare systems. The CDC also said: > Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 346 (74%) occurred in persons who were fully vaccinated > Among five COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized, four were fully vaccinated In other words, 80% of infections that require hospitalization are from vaccinated patients. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volu…

Post by randomopining » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 12:05 PM UTC

Mikeb85 wrote: post #52

randomopining wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize that everything is a probability right? There are people who choke and die on Hot Dogs every year. So there is a "risk of death from hot dogs" Yet most reasonable people would not really care.

The same argument can be made for Covid itself too and is also an anti-vaxx argument. Everything we do has risks and we determine whether or not they're reasonable. With vaccines, enough countries have said some have acceptable risk profiles (Pfizer and Moderna) and some are too risky (AstraZeneca).