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A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard

1729.com

51–60 of 121 posts

Re: A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard

#51
post #24

What I'd really like to see is a multi-dimensional inflation vector that would also be future-proof. People really need diverse items: they need food, but also real estate, the prices of which are going through the roof currently, and that's a form of inflation. Also, there are many profiles of consumption. People have different needs. I'd say that it could be a 100 floating point vector; with the first 40 values arr…

I'll start off with saying: Good luck to anyone trying to create a truly comprehensive historical price database.

Take these examples:

- The housing market is extremely diverse in certain countries, where some cities have experience price increases the past decades, some have been stagnating, and some have seen price decreases.

- Same goes for salaries. In extremely centralized cities, there's likely been above inflation rise, while in extremely decentralized cities, salaries have been stagnating, sometimes just standing still.

- Fuel prices can depend on local policies and taxation laws.

- Foods etc. can depend on how far away the places are in the logistical chain, how many competitors there are in the area, how the stores and chains are organized, etc.

- Travel (airfare, trains, etc.) can depend on location. Some larger hubs have experienced airfare that's become cheaper and cheaper with years, while rural places have seen the same going up.

Just in my country (Norway), there are hundreds of towns and villages with prices that are all over the place, and you'd need to scrape thousands of websites. Some of the data would be more or less impossible to get, due to the data never being digitized to begin with.

Of course, I would love to have such a database ready. I'd love to be able to run a query on my home town, and see what the prices for top 10 items were, say, 45 years ago. And compare that to the national inflation, as well as local prices of the more expensive cities.

So I think that whomever is going to work on this, probably just need to take the very rough and general (historical) inflation rates, which most government websites offer. To make a DB which accounts for all the micro- and macro changes would just be too consuming for any small team. You'd basically need a Wikipedia-esque team of individual contributors to cover all the prices.

Re: A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard

#52
post #16
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technically it says "We'll invest $100k in the best entrant if you end up starting a company". I guess not bad if you're already working on this?

>if you end up starting a company How can you monetize this? The whole point is that the data is public for everyone to see?

Lots of people/businesses have a need to know if they’ll be able to meet their future expenditures with current savings. The issue is the generic basket of goods isn’t relevant for all people. For example, a condo with a reserve fund only really cares about construction costs in a single city. A retiree cares a lot about the price of nursing homes and in home care but may not even realize it.

I expect if you can help people/financial advisors understand their future expenditure needs there is a lot of value in it.

Re: A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard

#54
post #50
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be very useful for on-chain financial derivatives based off a more accurate inflation gauge. I don't trust the official CPI numbers and don't see them as accurately reflecting my cost of living increases over the years. Couple in the fact that there are literally trillions in pension benefits tied to CPI, so the incentive to manipulate these numbers is huge. It's already very opaque. If you look at the const…

>I don't trust the official CPI numbers and don't see them as accurately reflecting my cost of living increases over the years. What makes you think a NGO would do a better job? On one hand they might not have the same incentive to manipulate the numbers in the same way that the government would, but that would be replaced with an incentive to come up with whatever numbers that their donor base would like to see (see…

> What makes you think a NGO would do a better job?

Maybe they wouldn't do better, but they wouldn't have a trillion dollar incentive and ideally there'd be competing metrics.

> Are you missing a part of your argument here? You just say that a few categories make up 60% of the CPI, then immediately conclude that "it makes no sense that inflation has been flat".

In the US, over the last 10 years housing, education and health care have grown by a lot while official inflation has been historically very flat (0 - 2%).

Health care: On a per capita basis, health spending has increased over 31-fold in the last four decades, from $353 per person in 1970 to $11,582 in 2019. [0]

Housing: Median home price was around ~210k in today's dollars ten years ago and is now ~314k [1]

Education: The cost of college increased by more than 25% in the last 10 years [2]

> The problem is that you need to do various subjective adjustments

Sure, but again, I don't trust the officials to do this given the trillion dollar incentive to fudge the numbers.

[0] https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spe....

[1] https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/cost-of-college-increased-by...

Re: A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard

#56
post #52
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>if you end up starting a company How can you monetize this? The whole point is that the data is public for everyone to see?

Lots of people/businesses have a need to know if they’ll be able to meet their future expenditures with current savings. The issue is the generic basket of goods isn’t relevant for all people. For example, a condo with a reserve fund only really cares about construction costs in a single city. A retiree cares a lot about the price of nursing homes and in home care but may not even realize it. I expect if you can help…

>The issue is the generic basket of goods isn’t relevant for all people.

but the BLS puts out figures for each category? https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm

Re: A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard

#58
Isn't this asking for a solution to the oracle problem? i.e., is there a working way to get any real world data on to the blockchain that isn't manual/censorable? I mean, once that's solved, there'll be a lot more interest in stock prices and sports scores and such than CPI data, right?

Re: A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard

#59
Unrelated, but regarding the domain name for this site:

The nth taxicab number, also called the nth Hardy–Ramanujan number, is the smallest integer that can be expressed as a sum of two positive integer cubes in n distinct ways. The most famous taxicab number is 1729.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxicab_number

Re: A $100k Prize for a Decentralized Inflation Dashboard

#60
post #7

$100k seems laughably low, when you consider that it buys less than 4 months of dev time (assuming a $200/hr consulting rate).

This is not aimed at devs in the West:

> That’s why we named 1729.com after Ramanujan’s number. Ramanujan made great contributions to India and to mathematics around the world. He was particularly renowned for his contribution to number theory, which underpins cryptography and hence crypto. And he represented something I’ve been thinking about for many years, which is how to use technology to help the dark talent in India and around the world rise as Ramanujan did. Thus the fourth task is to help identify those people and places where the best is outside the West, where the ascending world is surpassing the declining world.

$100k for a dev in India, Ukraine, or Venezuela, is more than enough incentive.

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