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Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

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Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#51

Post by nradov »

akomtu wrote: post #48
nradov wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be impossible for China to conduct a "small incursion" into the main island of Taiwan. Geography and logistics make it an all-or-nothing deal. A small amphibious or airborne force would be too vulnerable and there wouldn't be any way to sustain it. If an invasion comes it will be huge, like on the scale of the WW2 Normandy assault.

How's this different than the story of Crimea? Xi will just do the same thing with Taiwan.

It's totally different in that Crimea is closer to Russia, it already contained a Russian military base, and Ukraine had nearly zero combat effective military. Taiwan is much farther from China (100 miles of open ocean) and their military is at least somewhat competent.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#52

Post by jjk166 »

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #50
jjk166 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is on the precipice of a major demographic issue - it's military age population is collapsing at the same time that a major cohort is reaching the end of its productive years. China is making major moves right now to eliminate potential sources of unrest because in a short period of time it will not be able to. HK is part of China's continental territory, no foreign power, especially the waning British, could p…

China's fertility rate (assuming it is accurate) is excellent by the standards of other high-IQ populations, at 1.69. By contrast, Taiwan is dreadful, at 1.07. Eventually, China will be able to just sail in. The real threat to our chip supplies is that the world will run out of intelligent Taiwanese people to operate TSMC.

The thing about demographics is that it doesn't matter what your fertility rate is now, it matters what it was 20 years ago. The fact is that China's largest cohort turns 31 this year, while it's current military age cohorts are half its size, and shrinking. The cohort turning 18 this year is the smallest since the Great Leap Forward. The next cohort with 10 million males is currently 5 years old, and it is an anomalous blip with the most recent cohort being 20% smaller and near future cohorts undoubtedly to be smaller still due to the decreasing size of their parental cohorts.

Your population in their 20s are your soldiers, your baby makers, your first home buyers, your 80 hour a week workers, your pop culture consumers - a sharp drop in their numbers is catastrophic for a nation's geopolitical and economic health. Combined with China's baby boom about to enter their 60s, when their economic productivity will substantially decline and their medical costs will skyrocket, to be supported primarily by weak cohorts 20 years younger it is a terrible position to be in. On top of this, the People's Republic of China is currently 72 years old, for context Russia went 74 years from the abdication of the Tsar to the fall of the Soviet Union, and the average lifetime of China's 49 dynasties has been 70 years. 65 to 75 years is approximately how long the revolution remains in living memory, how long people are still alive who personally remember how bad the previous regime was and thus continue to excuse any faults of the current regime. Once it passes out of living memory, calls for reform become far more intense. This triple whammy is imminent and inescapable.

For China to survive, it will have to deal with a shortage of manpower, a dramatic increase in the cost of social services, severe economic contraction, and the reforging of a national identity all at the same time, with a reduced sized military, a large number of young unmarried males with poor prospects, all while under severe external pressure along all fronts. This will be a rough decade for China.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#53

Post by aaaxyz »

nradov wrote: post #51
akomtu wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How's this different than the story of Crimea? Xi will just do the same thing with Taiwan.

It's totally different in that Crimea is closer to Russia, it already contained a Russian military base, and Ukraine had nearly zero combat effective military. Taiwan is much farther from China (100 miles of open ocean) and their military is at least somewhat competent.

And more importantly: Crimea's population was favorable to annexation by Russia

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#54

Post by rsj_hn »

greedo wrote: post #47
BJBBB wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you say that the U.S. would not "seriously try to break such a blockade"? Logistics issues? Political issues? Economic issues?

Breaking the blockade would be extremely difficult to do for a variety of reasons. Primarily, unless the US was willing to attack mainland China, there's no way they could overcome the PLA/PLAN. And if the US attacks mainland China, the risk of the conflict going nuclear rises exponentially. If I were the PLAN, I would focus on three areas; MRBMs to keep the CVNs far far away, airpower over the region to keep Japan o…

For a country dependent on US controlled shipping lanes to obtain food and oil, as well as dependent on the rest of the world's financial system to keep their population employed, it's a bit ludicrous to think of them blockading anyone. China is the one who is vulnerable to a blockade - it's not even food independent.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#55

Post by nradov »

rsj_hn wrote: post #54
greedo wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Breaking the blockade would be extremely difficult to do for a variety of reasons. Primarily, unless the US was willing to attack mainland China, there's no way they could overcome the PLA/PLAN. And if the US attacks mainland China, the risk of the conflict going nuclear rises exponentially. If I were the PLAN, I would focus on three areas; MRBMs to keep the CVNs far far away, airpower over the region to keep Japan o…

For a country dependent on US controlled shipping lanes to obtain food and oil, as well as dependent on the rest of the world's financial system to keep their population employed, it's a bit ludicrous to think of them blockading anyone. China is the one who is vulnerable to a blockade - it's not even food independent.

This is exactly why China is putting so much focus on their Belt and Road Initiative: to reduce their vulnerability to a US blockade.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#56

Post by Shorel »

mastry wrote: post #4

Near the end of the article, Steve Blanks is quoted... Alternatively, Beijing may seek to negotiate with or coerce Taipei (or both) in order to allow China sole access to TSMC and block chip exports to the United States, thereby securing China’s own supply while crippling American industry. But earlier in the article it's mentioned that the US effectively has a "kill switch" on TSMC (by cutting off key supplies neede…

I think China strategy will be to slowly copy TSMC, starting from funding the universities around Shanghai, luring Taiwan nationals with higher salaries, and also try to copy the supply chain, however long that process will take.

Only after they have their own microprocessor industry, can they risk publicly invading Taiwan, and dealing with the retaliatory crippling of TSMC by supplying the rest of the supply chain.

It is a long and risky strategy. Who knows...

We will know in about 15-20 years.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#57

Post by rsj_hn »

nradov wrote: post #55
rsj_hn wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a country dependent on US controlled shipping lanes to obtain food and oil, as well as dependent on the rest of the world's financial system to keep their population employed, it's a bit ludicrous to think of them blockading anyone. China is the one who is vulnerable to a blockade - it's not even food independent.

This is exactly why China is putting so much focus on their Belt and Road Initiative: to reduce their vulnerability to a US blockade.

I'm sorry, but this statement doesn't compute. The Belt and Road initiative is an attempt at exporting infrastructure services as they are already exporting all the tradeables they can, so to keep employment going they are trying to export, say, bridge building by sending Chinese workers overseas to build bridges, ports, roads, etc. in other countries.

The terms of the deal is to always be paid in USD -- USD which is held in custodial accounts in the US. Thus it is a roundabout way of exporting to acquire more foreign currency reserves. But the moment there is any kind of conflict, all of China's foreign reserve holdings are likely to be seized in the worst case and frozen in the best case, so the fact that there are bridges and ports all over Africa and Southeast Asia built by Chinese workers isn't going to help China import food or get past US control of shipping lanes.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#58

Post by dragonwriter »

rsj_hn wrote: post #57
nradov wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly why China is putting so much focus on their Belt and Road Initiative: to reduce their vulnerability to a US blockade.

I'm sorry, but this statement doesn't compute. The Belt and Road initiative is an attempt at exporting infrastructure services as they are already exporting all the tradeables they can, so to keep employment going they are trying to export, say, bridge building by sending Chinese workers overseas to build bridges, ports, roads, etc. in other countries. The terms of the deal is to always be paid in USD -- USD which is…

China is not principally buying money, its buying geopolitical influence; nations that see their interest aligned with China succeeding in competition with rival powers.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#59

Post by rsj_hn »

dragonwriter wrote: post #58
rsj_hn wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry, but this statement doesn't compute. The Belt and Road initiative is an attempt at exporting infrastructure services as they are already exporting all the tradeables they can, so to keep employment going they are trying to export, say, bridge building by sending Chinese workers overseas to build bridges, ports, roads, etc. in other countries. The terms of the deal is to always be paid in USD -- USD which is…

China is not principally buying money, its buying geopolitical influence; nations that see their interest aligned with China succeeding in competition with rival powers.

It is not principally buying money, as such a thing is impossible in a nation with its own fiat currency. Rather, it is creating jobs for their domestic population. The foreign currency reserves are not the objective, employment is the objective. This is true of all export-led-growth strategies. China already has more than enough foreign reserves by any possible measure, and it can't really do much with the reserves it has - it has to sterilize those which creates inflation and forces China to go into massive RMB debt when they sell domestic bonds to sterilize the foreign inflows.

But neither is it buying influence overseas, as these projects are wildly unpopular and result in unsustainable debt burdens and massive amounts of ill-will. If you look at a map, you see most of these projects happening in authoritarian nations or nations where there is a lot of corruption, and what happens is that leaders force their country into unsustainable debt burdens while they themselves get bribed. Then when they leave office, the nation will default and now it will be an enemy of China. It's like China's project to extract resources from Africa -- lots of ill will and anti-Chinese feelings are created from these projects. It certainly does not cause their foreign influence to increase, but it does create jobs for Chinese workers, which is the point. The fact of the matter is that the Chinese construction industry has already built far too many airports and ports that China can use domestically, so as with the manufacturing excess capacity, the excess capacity of the construction sector is being offloaded onto the rest of the world, primarily to third world nations that can't afford these ports, and it is happening at the expense of lots of ill-will.

What would be in China's interest would be shrink its construction industry and try to re-allocate to providing healthcare, senior services, and other services that China's own population needs. The sooner they stop exporting excess capacity in all these industries the better. That would also do much to at least stem the tide of anti-Chinese resentment that is created by these projects in which excess capacity is dumped onto the rest of the world. Don't underestimate the long term damage that these projects are creating all over the world to China's image.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#60

Post by dragonwriter »

rsj_hn wrote: post #59
dragonwriter wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not principally buying money, its buying geopolitical influence; nations that see their interest aligned with China succeeding in competition with rival powers.

It is not principally buying money, as such a thing is impossible in a nation with its own fiat currency. Rather, it is creating jobs for their domestic population. The foreign currency reserves are not the objective, employment is the objective. This is true of all export-led-growth strategies. China already has more than enough foreign reserves by any possible measure, and it can't really do much with the reserves…

> leaders force their country into unsustainable debt burdents while they themselves get bribed.

Its the leaders, not the public, who are the people that China is buying influence with.

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