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80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

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Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#51

Post by rsj_hn »

gregjor wrote: post #47

This idea gets recycled every generation. I can’t count how many “low code” no-programming-skills-required tools I’ve seen come and go in the last four decades. Both COBOL and SQL got presented in these terms. I’ve yet to see a “non-technical manager” write a non-trivial SQL query, much less know how to confirm they got the correct results. The various 4GL tools that proliferated in the 90s led to complex amateur spa…

I agree, but there is a kernel of truth here, which is making programming more accessible by means of higher level constructs that are easy to use while also being less general. Excel is a great example, in that it opened up the world of macros and programming to a huge population. Yes, you still need technical skills and programming skills, but the entry bar is lowered in exchange for playing in a tighter sandbox. In many cases, this is a good tradeoff. All the no-code/low-code stuff is just marketing trying to promote this.

Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#52

Post by davnicwil »

If this looks preposterous, one way to see that it could be true is to look at which 80%.

80% of all types of software? No. 80% of the type of software you are building? No.

Almost all of a new category of software that is only economical to create because such tools exist? Perhaps, yes.

Small simple tools, things only needed for a couple of months, things that used to be spreadsheets or physical whiteboards. Things that are useful, and better digitised, but nowhere near worth the cost of building as custom software.

All kinds of companies of all sizes are full of such things. The domain is massive. Arbitrary dates aside, I think it's clear the trend is correct - we will see a lot of growth in this category of software and the tools used to build them.

I'm working on such a tool at Stacker (YC S20). If you're intrigued by what I've said, we're hiring! email's in my profile :-)

Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#53

Post by gregjor »

rsj_hn wrote: post #51
gregjor wrote: post #47

This idea gets recycled every generation. I can’t count how many “low code” no-programming-skills-required tools I’ve seen come and go in the last four decades. Both COBOL and SQL got presented in these terms. I’ve yet to see a “non-technical manager” write a non-trivial SQL query, much less know how to confirm they got the correct results. The various 4GL tools that proliferated in the 90s led to complex amateur spa…

I agree, but there is a kernel of truth here, which is making programming more accessible by means of higher level constructs that are easy to use while also being less general. Excel is a great example, in that it opened up the world of macros and programming to a huge population. Yes, you still need technical skills and programming skills, but the entry bar is lowered in exchange for playing in a tighter sandbox. I…

The entry bar got lowered back in the 80s with cheap home computers running BASIC. Lots of us learned on low-end low barrier to entry systems like that. There’s no gate keeping. Anyone who wants to learn programming has a wealth of tools and languages and resources to choose from, for free.

This is a replay of previous attempts to pretend to democratize programming and reduce the dependence on rare and expensive programmers. Those are real problems but I don’t think we get there by pretending that anyone can build a system out of software Lego blocks. The actual market here is VCs and C-suite managers looking at software dev labor costs, and misunderstanding (and getting misled) about the reasons for those costs.

Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#54

Post by riarruda »

I enjoy node-red[1], considered low-code. There's a trade off between abstraction and simplicity, I fell that the low code marketing is targeting people that wants to start using the product/services as fast as possible, inpatient to read documentation, or lean a programming language, just want start doing and node red is great for that, if you want quickly prototyping or testing some iot logic.

I used to use low code for create games,as gamemaker, easy to start, but at the end they all look the same and you quickly find that has nothing better than text for dealing with abstraction

[1] https://github.com/node-red/node-red

Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#55

Post by gregjor »

mrtksn wrote: post #49
lifeisstillgood wrote: post #18

No No No There is such a thing as software literacy just as there is a thing called literacy. We spend the first 15-20 years of life teaching literacy so that a young person will be productive in life. What makes us think it's going to be different with software? The idea of low-code is like the idea of writing a novel by cut and pasting loads of blank comic book panels carefully crafted by Marvel Studios. This job u…

A lot of the developers these days tend to be integrators. The no-code tooling can help actually take that procedure to a higher abstraction where understanding of the system would still be needed but understanding of the low level details of coding can be completely eliminated. Think languages like JS or PHP. World have been built using these and many of the developers in these languages don’t have understanding on…

You don’t need to know “how computers actually work” to write code in high-level languages. Those are too abstracted away from the hardware and OS.

PHP and JS are not considered low-quality languages. They are low-hanging fruit for amateurs to write low-quality software. Yes, people who don’t really know what they’re doing can make money with PHP and JS, just like people who don’t know about food, cooking, nutrition can run a restaurant. That’s not really a good argument for low-code, though.

Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#56

Post by gregjor »

radicalbyte wrote: post #31
bunsenhoneydew wrote: post #23

When I first started building applications back in the 90’s, I did it using the only thing I could get my hands on at the time, Access 95. Many of these low-code tools just feel like a web version of that. Form builders, drag and drop, define data types, hook up queries to forms and fields to text boxes and grids. I guess I just got old enough to see the approach come full circle.

That was an explicit design goal of one I worked on a number of years ago. These tools have their place: they allow smart technical people to be highly productive whilst abstracting a lot of the complexity away. Low-code tools fill a gap, they're the PHP / Rails / Python for Line-Of-Business / data-driven apps. They allow you to achieve in days what would take weeks in those languages and months in C++.

Agree. And we’ve had those tools available for decades. These new low-code/no-code tools have exactly the same potential user base and exactly the same limitations. No new or even interesting problem is getting solved, just a fresh coat of paint. Or reinventing the flat tire, as Alan Kay put it.

How often do you see commercial or enterprise software written in Access or VBA? What happened to all of those? They either couldn’t grow with the business requirements, or they were so specific and idiosyncratic they couldn’t adapt and constrained the business with their limitations for years.

Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#57

Post by gregjor »

version_five wrote: post #22

Timing is dubious but I can picture a situation in which some version of 80% (by capitalized cost e.g.) of enterprise CRM, ticketing software, ERP, etc. is configured through something you could legitimately call "low code". I think it's already the case in many places. I also predict that it will become more and more of a bloated mess, because of lower skill people working on it "anyone can set it up easily, no codi…

Maybe you have used SAP or Salesforce, or any number of customizable enterprise apps like that. If you wonder how companies get hacked and get their databases stolen or ransomed every day, this is how it happens.

Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#58

Post by gregjor »

randcraw wrote: post #50

Predictions like these always overlook where 90% of the software lifecycle really takes place: legacy code. Code-generators-for-the-masses my be able to create new code but it can't modify, extend, repair, or maintain old code. To change an app, all code generators require that you modify the app's configuration and then generate all new code. That works fine if you know what part of the configuration caused the fail…

Excellent point. The only thing worse, in my experience, than legacy code is legacy code that came from a code generator, or an amateur with MS Access or something like that.

Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#59

Post by gregjor »

Closi wrote: post #35
ed_elliott_asc wrote: post #13

100% this won’t happen, and certainly not by 2024. By 2024, enterprises won’t even have them on their radar.

They already do, most ERPs or CRMs are partly made/customised from some sort of version of lowcode soup (eg dynamics, salesforce).

Those are low code as long as you can change your business requirements to match what the tools can do. SalesForce requires expensive consultants and developers to do anything beyond basic contact management.

Re: 80% of tech could be built outside IT by 2024, thanks to low-code tools

#60

Post by gregjor »

xyst wrote: post #19

They have been saying this for years. I’ll start believing it once I have been replaced by some no-code hack that graduated a 2 week boot camp in . Anybody remember “dream weaver” for front end development? Thus was supposed to change the game, yet all we got was unmaintainable, and bloated code.

When I aged out of the cool jobs I figured out how to make a good living as a freelancer mopping up these messes, or replacing them. Dreamweaver and WordPress were the best things to ever happen to programmers who have the stomach for it — bottomless pit of maintenance work. Because the customer depends on these half-baked solutions they will pay me double or more what they paid their nephew who “is good with the computer” to write them.
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