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Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

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Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#51
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of the first bubble. Everyone on the inside were looking at each other as stock and salaries skyrocketed thinking this was crazy and unsustainable. But we all just shrugged because there was no stopping the hype train. Here, anyone even just tangentially involved or know the some details of AI/ML are highly skeptical that Elon's vision of self driving cars will occur in our lifetime. Yet, Elon keeps p…

To be fair to Elon, there were a lot of naysayers coming at him about Tesla and SpaceX but he has accomplished more than they ever thought he would. Most of the time, however he has exaggerated the timeline in order to keep the hype around him and his companies. I think he would do better to under-promise and over-deliver. Especially with a technology that could potentially cost lives if delivered too early.

> Most of the time, however he has exaggerated the timeline in order to keep the hype around him and his companies

All of Elon's companies are heavily subsidized by US tax payers (energy credits for Tesla and solar, rockets are paid for by NASA, military, etc...) So to use tax payer money you need to have the goodwill of the tax payers behind you. Its worth every penny to lie and bolster your image of doing cool shit so people don't mind their tax dollars continuing to go towards your cause. It's 100% PR. Without US tax payers none of these companies would still exist.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#53
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know, I used to ride an autonomous vehicle every day in London. DLR is autonomous, the catch is - it has its own lane and it’s on rails. Also, someone sits in the car during rush hours, just in case. Here’s how it looks to be in the front car of the train when there’s a supervisor: https://imgur.com/geFIidK Outside of the rush hour, that lid is closed and it feels like the Half-Life train at beginning of the…

We could've vastly expanded a lot of train systems with the amount of money that's been burned trying to make cars drive themselves. Unfortunately, most new transportation methods that are not trains are just attempts to build trains, while claiming they are not trains and will cost less than trains. But inevitably end up costing as much as trains. Trains.

Is this really true? To be able to build a track you need to have government-level authority (e.g., in GP's example, to build something on its own lane in the road, or to displace people in homes in the way of the track). However, the entities funding SDCs are private.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#54
Someone is criticising Musk? He's obviously a pedo guy and a polluting BMW driver. I shall send my people to reeducate him. No need for this to be front page. /s

I joke, but seriously, how long can this Musk worship go on? Musk invested in Tesla AFTER Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning built the Roadster. He later sued them for founder status and ousted the real founders from their own company. It's now almost 20 years later, and Tesla is still a tiny little car company that has not had one profitable year (a fact which actually benefits Musk right now as the share price can not be anchored to anything real... the possibilities are infinite ;) The one company Musk actually founded; SolarCity, was an epic failure which needed to be saved from bankruptcy by Tesla and SpaceX. I honestly suspect that Tesla might have been a bigger success, had it remained with it's original founders.

By the way, there are at least 11 lawsuits and investigations of SolarCity listed on it's wikipedia page. That's quite a rap sheet for such a young company with such noble goals. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SolarCity#Lawsuits_and_investi...

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#55

I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…

> Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I'm less worried about the autonomous vehicle I might be driving and more about the ones others are driving. Here's an idea, how about being able to geofence a neighborhood as "<= Level 3 autonomy only". I'm only somewhat joking. I know it smells of NIMBY but it might be useful around schools, daycares, etc.

Based on how I've seen humans drive their vehicles for school dropoffs and pickups in San Jose, I would much prefer robots.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#57

When ADAS systems come into play, the primary concern is who's going to shoulder the blame when things fail. This autonomous driving thing is no simple nor incremental improvement, this is an overhaul in our current structure of liability. So far, with a human driving, when things go awry, blame can be easily assigned, it's simple and case can be closed. When we introduce total absolution of the former party in charg…

I'm assuming you are talking about when we reach level 4+ right? Anything below that is clearly still in the realm of driver responsibility. Level 4 is really where the large grey area will live, because level 5 will certainly require moving that liability to the system manufacturer.

Just a minor nit, "ADAS systems" is redundant.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#58
post #16

I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…

I don’t know, I used to ride an autonomous vehicle every day in London. DLR is autonomous, the catch is - it has its own lane and it’s on rails. Also, someone sits in the car during rush hours, just in case. Here’s how it looks to be in the front car of the train when there’s a supervisor: https://imgur.com/geFIidK Outside of the rush hour, that lid is closed and it feels like the Half-Life train at beginning of the…

The Copenhagen metro has zero drivers, and not even room for one.

https://migogkbh.dk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Metro-1200x72...

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#59

Someone is criticising Musk? He's obviously a pedo guy and a polluting BMW driver. I shall send my people to reeducate him. No need for this to be front page. /s I joke, but seriously, how long can this Musk worship go on? Musk invested in Tesla AFTER Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning built the Roadster. He later sued them for founder status and ousted the real founders from their own company. It's now almost 20 ye…

> Tesla is still a (...) company that has not had one profitable year

Isn't this true of most growing companies? Like Amazon, Uber, YouTube (now Google), etc.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#60
post #8

This is my single biggest beef with Elon and Tesla. From the jump I think that the name overstates the ability of the vehicles. I think his tweets have been consistently optimistic regarding timelines to the point of hyperbole. I agree that autonomy is a worthwhile goal, but I think the real selling point of a Tesla is that they were until recently the best electric car you can buy. That still may be the case today b…

I think it's the best car you can buy, electric or otherwise. That's why it baffles me that Musk feels the need to consistently lie about autonomy, because the car is already great without it, and the "intelligent cruise control" which the car does have is convenient and as good as anybody else's.

It's as if Apple made the best computers--which some people think they still do--but Tim Cook was tweeting every day about how the MacBook Pro can solve the halting problem. No it can't; of course it can't. Why would you continue to drag down your company's good name by lying like this?

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