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US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

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Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#51

Post by ihaveajob »

tasogare wrote: post #32
bilbo0s wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And frankly, this is everyone's motivation. EU wants to not depend on TSMC. US has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. China has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. And there are even rumors that Russia is trying to build their capabilities in this regard. I think the leadership at TSMC is being a little naive. Alternatively, they may know very well what's going on here and they are being willfully obtuse to paint as b…

The West should deal diplomatically openly with Taiwan: some limited production creation in EU/US in exchange for international recognition and protection of Taiwan.

From the Taiwan point of view, allowing any competition is opening the door to trouble in the long run. Political winds come and go, but building semiconductor capacity can't be done overnight, so the longer they can keep their edge, the longer they'll be relatively safe from their neighbor to the north.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#52

Post by [deleted] »

tehjoker wrote: post #42
ffggvv wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO its just smart in case china tries to annex taiwan or initiates military moves and then we're cut off from semiconductors.

This is correct, but imo it is far more likely for the US (the largest military power in the world) to start something. No need to be hyper nationalistic about this.

[deleted]

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#53

Post by zepto »

tehjoker wrote: post #42
ffggvv wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO its just smart in case china tries to annex taiwan or initiates military moves and then we're cut off from semiconductors.

This is correct, but imo it is far more likely for the US (the largest military power in the world) to start something. No need to be hyper nationalistic about this.

It’s not obvious that the US will be the largest military power for long.

And china has been flying incursions into Taiwanese airspace with increasing regularity.

Plus, China has broken its treaty obligations in Hong Kong, and explicitly expresses the view that Taiwan is part of China, and it has no strategic semiconductor fabrication capability of its own.

Given all this, I’m not sure why you’d imagine the US would ‘start something’ purely because of the dollar amount it has spent on the military.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#54

Post by dirtyid »

tachyonbeam wrote: post #35
gpm wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3. They're trying to discourage competition, because competition impacts their (Taiwan's) national security. I don't think TMSC is naive about the geopolitical importance that they have to Taiwan.

I was thinking about that recently. China can't realistically invade (or intimidate/sanction) Taiwan as long as they are dependent on TSMC, because of those semiconductor manufacturing plants went down, it could be a global economic disaster, and China would be one of the most heavily impacted, given the proportion of everyone's electronics they manufacture.

China can't realistically invade TW until it can take on USN 10-15 years from now after more build up / military modernization anyway. Happenstance of TSMC dominance is IMO blessing in this regard, buys PRC 10+ years of military and semi catchup time. There's going to be theatrics and political posturing in the interim by US/CN/TW, but ultimately TSMC buying TW time is buying CN time to close gap with US.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#55

Post by tehjoker »

zepto wrote: post #53
tehjoker wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is correct, but imo it is far more likely for the US (the largest military power in the world) to start something. No need to be hyper nationalistic about this.

It’s not obvious that the US will be the largest military power for long. And china has been flying incursions into Taiwanese airspace with increasing regularity. Plus, China has broken its treaty obligations in Hong Kong, and explicitly expresses the view that Taiwan is part of China, and it has no strategic semiconductor fabrication capability of its own. Given all this, I’m not sure why you’d imagine the US would…

It depends on how you regard Taiwan. If you think of it like China's Texas, it's a domestic issue. If you think of it as a nation under threat, it's an international issue.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/03/17/pers-m17.html

"Even as more than 1,000 people die from COVID-19 every single day in the United States, and the disease surges around the world, the US is preparing for a conflict that risks incalculable human suffering. Joining this offensive is the United Kingdom, with the highest COVID-19 death rate of the major European countries, which announced Tuesday a massive expansion of its nuclear weapons program, calling China a “major threat.”

It is not COVID-19, but China that the US has planted firmly in its sights. As Blinken made clear, “Several countries present us with serious challenges, including Russia, Iran, North Korea… but the challenge posed by China is different. China is the only country with the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power” to “challenge” the United States.

On March 10, Adm. Philip Davidson, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing he believes that China is likely to invade Taiwan within the next six years. “I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years,” Davidson said.

Given that the United States has, in the words of Defense Secretary Austin, “commitments to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself,” to predict that China will invade Taiwan within the next six years is to predict a major Sino-American war within that same time period."

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#56

Post by zepto »

tehjoker wrote: post #55
zepto wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not obvious that the US will be the largest military power for long. And china has been flying incursions into Taiwanese airspace with increasing regularity. Plus, China has broken its treaty obligations in Hong Kong, and explicitly expresses the view that Taiwan is part of China, and it has no strategic semiconductor fabrication capability of its own. Given all this, I’m not sure why you’d imagine the US would…

It depends on how you regard Taiwan. If you think of it like China's Texas, it's a domestic issue. If you think of it as a nation under threat, it's an international issue. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/03/17/pers-m17.html "Even as more than 1,000 people die from COVID-19 every single day in the United States, and the disease surges around the world, the US is preparing for a conflict that risks incalculable…

Your quote precisely supports what I explained - i.e. there is some likelyhood that China will try to seize control of Taiwan.

What it doesn’t say, is anything about the US starting something.

It’s totally absurd to consider Taiwan to be like a US state such as Texas.

For that to be a valid comparison, Texas would need to have a treaty with China where China had agreed intervene militarily to protect Texas from US federal government control.

You must know this is an absurd comparison.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#57

Post by tehjoker »

zepto wrote: post #56
tehjoker wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on how you regard Taiwan. If you think of it like China's Texas, it's a domestic issue. If you think of it as a nation under threat, it's an international issue. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/03/17/pers-m17.html "Even as more than 1,000 people die from COVID-19 every single day in the United States, and the disease surges around the world, the US is preparing for a conflict that risks incalculable…

Your quote precisely supports what I explained - i.e. there is some likelyhood that China will try to seize control of Taiwan. What it doesn’t say, is anything about the US starting something. It’s totally absurd to consider Taiwan to be like a US state such as Texas. For that to be a valid comparison, Texas would need to have a treaty with China where China had agreed intervene militarily to protect Texas from US fe…

Well, in the US civil war, the South did succeed and did attempt to make treaties with other nations. They weren't very successful it seems, but that's not because they didn't try. In the American Revolution, a critical factor in victory was our alliances with France and Germany.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_of_the_American_Civi...

If Taiwan is properly regarded as a domestic issue, US intervention is improper and is "starting something" that would otherwise be contained locally... much like WWI's system of alliances.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#58

Post by cpleppert »

atty wrote: post #9

It may be true that TSMC and Samsung can meet demand during normal times, but it completely misses the point that NA and EU want significant production capacity locally not to reduce costs, but to secure a critical supply chain. Is this a situation where he may be concerned that significant expansion of production capability away from Taiwan and SK will reduce the West’s reliance on TSMC, which may be a security risk…

It doesn’t make economic sense to build basically an entire new supply chain though.

You can’t just build a modern foundry with any amount of money. TSMC is part of a massive supply chain and engineering cluster. If you wanted to build something that looked like TSMC and in an emergency could produce something in six months you are probably talking about tens of billions per year at a minimum. Most of your costs are things TSMC gets paid for.

Since that doesnt really make sense you probably want a homegrown competitor. You just don’t have the domestic experience and expertise to replicate what TSMC has; It will never be cost competitive. TSMC can send billions on fabs and recover their costs and a domestic alternative will never be able to. Modern chips have to be adapted to each foundry; a homegrown alternative will have to eat this cost at first just to get orders.

If you want to be competitive you need to go big and stay there. Something like $100 billion a year for the foreseeable future would be the minimum. You could probably limp along with massive discounts.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#59

Post by cpleppert »

tasogare wrote: post #32
bilbo0s wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And frankly, this is everyone's motivation. EU wants to not depend on TSMC. US has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. China has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. And there are even rumors that Russia is trying to build their capabilities in this regard. I think the leadership at TSMC is being a little naive. Alternatively, they may know very well what's going on here and they are being willfully obtuse to paint as b…

The West should deal diplomatically openly with Taiwan: some limited production creation in EU/US in exchange for international recognition and protection of Taiwan.

That would be incredibly dangerous for Taiwan because China would react if it felt the military balance would actually change.

More importantly, the EU/US are not really in a position to make a credible threat to China. Let’s say they China declares its intention to forcibly ‘reunify’ Taiwan. EU sanctions on China would be incredibly painful... for the EU. The EU just signed a new trade treaty with China which probably tells you all you need to know about that option.

So down to the US. If the US didn’t deter China by trying to change the facts around Taiwan when it was considerably weaker it’s hard to understand why the US would take that step now.

That’s kind of the problem here. There isn’t anything that would credibly deter China at all so taking moves to antagonize China don’t accomplish anything. Even if other countries felt threatened by this they would much prefer to engage in ‘buck passing’ rather than taking actions that would directly hurt them.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#60

Post by sct202 »

amelius wrote: post #4

What is the distribution of education-level of workers at a typical fab? Is it like 90% researchers, or more like 90% production workers?

I couldn't find anything by site, but TSMC reported these stats in their 2019 Annual Report as a whole out of 51k employees: 5k managers, 24k professionals, 4k assistants and 17k technicians.

They reported highest level of education for their workforce of: 4.5% PHD, 44.9% Masters, 25.5% Bachelors.

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