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Does anyone know where to find death statistics for the US for years prior to 2020? Apparently, 3,436,576 persons died in 2020, but what was the totals for 2010 to 2019?
I don't really get these excess death calculations. Surely just looking at the past 5 years is not enough. Wouldn't you at least have to take into account generations? (ageing populations) (So maybe 60 years of data?) The linked graphs could easily just represent an older generation dying off. (Even the humps could just be regular flu seasons for an ageing population) Then you have to choose a range for your generati…
The mortality is as bad as in 2005 roughly!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
These weekly death stats are not useful because if no one dies in week 1, but everyone dies instead in week 2 (plus those who would have died anyway in week 2), it will show week 2 as being catastrophic, and everyone will just ignore week 1. We need the raw annual data which basically removes this noise.
If you look at the chart the death in 2020/2021 are well outside the extremal values for the previous two decades, and the "mass" contained there is much larger than the cumulative discrepancies for earlier in 2020. At that level of signal I don't think the weekly data can be dismissed as not useful.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you look at the chart the death in 2020/2021 are well outside the extremal values for the previous two decades, and the "mass" contained there is much larger than the cumulative discrepancies for earlier in 2020. At that level of signal I don't think the weekly data can be dismissed as not useful.
I looked up Slovakia data specifically. Deaths: 2020: 59,000 [1] 2019: 52,234 [2] 2018: 53,914 [2] So a 9.4% increase from 2018 to 2020. By contrast, Sweden had a 5.7% increase. [3] Slovakia has lockdown and curfew. Isn't the conclusion here that lockdown in Europe is failure, when with only voluntary measures Sweden was able to achieve a lower death rate? [1] https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22594536/in-2020-slovakia-suff…
You can compare Denmark and Slovakia (similar population size) for 2 different approaches to the 2nd wave, with 2 completely different outcomes. Denmark as a whole has as many people in ICUs as Slovakia has in one hospital.
I don't really get these excess death calculations. Surely just looking at the past 5 years is not enough. Wouldn't you at least have to take into account generations? (ageing populations) (So maybe 60 years of data?) The linked graphs could easily just represent an older generation dying off. (Even the humps could just be regular flu seasons for an ageing population) Then you have to choose a range for your generati…
> I feel like those graphs quite statistically weak. What am I missing? I think you're just missing the definition of "excess death", it's literally how much more deaths were registered against an average of the last years. It's just a basic indicator that indicates that something has happened and further investigation is required to clarify the reasons. If the "excess deaths" was raised because the "baby boomers" ge…
My wording sucks, I don't think my personal judgement of "excess deaths" is "correct", — nothing like that.
It just kind of feels like, as an example, people trying to predict financial markets, throw in a few factors, and a few sentiments and thus, X does equal B^(Y * B)(blah % what)(huh ^ bleh).
The "further investigation" is the "investigation" I was originally begging the question for.
Not trying to antagonize you, I just don't really get why the originally linked article is "True", until further things are investigated.
Science is one phenomena that proves itself, that's great.
Stats seems very malleable, I've met some people who are good at statistics, I've personally visually plotted graphs too, and it all kinda seems bias. (I probably did them wrong)
Can any statisticians chime in? Is this a reasonable dataset?
I don't really get these excess death calculations. Surely just looking at the past 5 years is not enough. Wouldn't you at least have to take into account generations? (ageing populations) (So maybe 60 years of data?) The linked graphs could easily just represent an older generation dying off. (Even the humps could just be regular flu seasons for an ageing population) Then you have to choose a range for your generati…
Tend to agree, check out my sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dvfMYnPrb_Ln9qvEZVuL... The mortality is as bad as in 2005 roughly!
I find the +/- sentiments interesting, it wasn't any intention of mine to approve/disprove anything, I was just sitting at home thinking were the original charts meaningful.
Does anyone know where to find death statistics for the US for years prior to 2020? Apparently, 3,436,576 persons died in 2020, but what was the totals for 2010 to 2019?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I personally know 2 people that had their lives shortened by the measures instead of the virus itself If you look at the global rates of excess deaths: https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386... (look under “Death rates”) It looks like the countries that had early and hard shutdowns (like Denmark and S. Korea), had almost zero excess deaths. Which at least to me seems to indicate that the shutd…
I don't think we have the data to answer the question posed by the grandparent comment. Lifespans have likely been reduced by response to the pandemic. Those whose lifespans have been reduced are still alive and are not showing up in death statistics today. For example, my grandmother-in-law was selfsufficient before the pandemic. During the pandemic she pretty much stayed in her apartment which resulted in significa…
However looking at other places in the world (not Australia) that had ineffective measures, it's like comparing certain death for a large swathe of the population vs reduced quality of life that many, but not all will recover from.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations. Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that ha…
> I personally know 2 people that had their lives shortened by the measures instead of the virus itself If you look at the global rates of excess deaths: https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386... (look under “Death rates”) It looks like the countries that had early and hard shutdowns (like Denmark and S. Korea), had almost zero excess deaths. Which at least to me seems to indicate that the shutd…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
My explanation has been that many of the elderly who died from covid did not have much live expectation left because they had suffered multiple diseases already. So in excess deaths they don't show that big, even though there were many cases. But the 25-44 olds would still have decades left, so every death makes a greater impact on excess deaths of their age group. But my statistics math is on a very basic level...
That's not what excess deaths mean. Excess deaths is number of deaths above previous years average. It has nothing to do with age, other than tracking who has died at what age.