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Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

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Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Automakers were already struggling with chip supply TBH, that is their own fault. When the pandemic started a year ago, they chickened out thinking people won't have money to buy anymore cars and halted production, cancelling orders for semiconductors. Then, when the demand for cars exploded, since nobody wanted to be on a subway/bus full of people carrying a contagious virus, they wanted their chips to resume produ…

I'm not sure we should be so quick to fault them. The unemployment rate when the pandemic really started building up steam was absolutely staggering so a lot of people quite reasonably expected a severe recession along with severe contraction of consumer demand to follow. That we didn't experience one is a minor miracle (and printing of a ridiculous amount of money).

Yes you can, and here's why.

The high unemployment rate during the pandemic was(and still is) mostly formed of people working in the service industry, travel, minimum wage earners and people with little to no skills and those people were having a rough time even before the pandemic so they were never on the automakers' radar of customers would buy a new car, not in a million years. Those people can only afford to buy used.

On the other hand, the typical new car buyer, the middle classer and above, saw little unemployment, on the contrary, many have seen their best years yet, which is why the demand for new cars (among other things) exploded.

Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#52
post #3

Ouch. Automakers were already struggling with chip supply. This is going to shut down production lines.

Not Toyota, but I don't know how large their mitigation buffer was set to. Seems like they took the logistical risk analysis more seriously than other makers.

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/03/09/toyota-how-it-avoided-se...

Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#53

This is horrible. What keeps me up at night is thinking about TSMC. One company. Just needs an earth quake, fire, explosion, something and the whole world is crippled. I know we have samsung, intel, etc other fabs. But if TSMC ever went down it would make the thailand floods for hard drives look like a joke.

You can sleep a _little_ better: the narrative around this ended up being focused around TSMC, but it's simply because that's the most visible part of the chain, they're first to a new node and all the newest gadgets need the newest node, so all the newest gadgets are on TSMC. They're not solely responsible for like 90% of chips or anything.

TSMC alone is >50% of all semiconductors. Add other Taiwanese foundries, and you will get in between 60% and 70%.

Add the fact that many globally single vendor members of semiconductor supply chain are also in Taiwan, including many consumables.

Yes, it's very close to truth.

Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#54

This is horrible. What keeps me up at night is thinking about TSMC. One company. Just needs an earth quake, fire, explosion, something and the whole world is crippled. I know we have samsung, intel, etc other fabs. But if TSMC ever went down it would make the thailand floods for hard drives look like a joke.

[deleted]

Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#55
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you mean like how TSMC is building a fab in arizona and samsung in texas?

But TSMC's Arizona plant will make 5nm chips in 2023, by which time 5nm wont be the leading-edge node - 3nm will be. It's nice to see some geodiversity however. In any case, TSMC is dependent on ASML, which has a monopoly on leading-edge EUV tech. There is a decent amount of competition at older nodes, like > 40nm. So we'll still be able to make some chips if TSMC completely goes out of business, but obviously it won…

You make it sound like anyone with the will can just take ASML product and create a leading fab. If that was the case Intel wouldn't be in the mess it is in.

Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#56
post #27
post #3

Ouch. Automakers were already struggling with chip supply. This is going to shut down production lines.

Since cars generally have a large physical space for chips and ample power, why don't automakers just use chips from older fabs?

Redesign, and re-certify a car selling at less than 10% markup.

You will be underwater for the car's entire remaining lifetime on the market.

Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might even be a good investment to build a fab just to clean up in the event of a shortage. Kind of like how if anyone in Texas had the good foresight to winterize they could have made a year of profit in a few days...

Having worked in the semiconductor industry, it would be good investment for Apple, Google, or Microsoft to get into fabbing stuff for themselves and others just on the basis of being able to outcompete everyone else in operational efficiency. There's a killing to be made from low-hanging fruit all over the place, at least for anyone who's able to front costs of opening or acquiring a billion dollar fab.

> it would be good investment for Apple, Google, or Microsoft to get into fabbing stuff for themselves and others just on the basis of being able to outcompete everyone else in operational efficiency.

They can try...

Surely they have cash, and so did the Chinese who were signing 10 digit cheques for anybody claiming to be able to setup a modern fab.

Running a fab is not like running a cat video website, or making a cookie cutter electronics from reference designs.

On other hand, if there is a company which can turn off the lights on a dotcom companies like them, it will be a big fab business.

TSMC's Morris Chang's integrity, and softness, completely uncharacteristic to the big ambition, ego, and testosterone-driver semi industry, were what made TSMC stood out. Dirty play in the semi industry was everywhere in nineties.

People who are taking over TSMC from Chang may not share his adherence to morals bordering on altruism.

P.S. Saying what that industry was is by no means a meme. Early silicon valley businesses would've given a heart attack to any modern politically correct business exec. Stuff like this was rather common:

https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uplo...

https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uplo...

Just read some memories of Fairchild Semi "alums." Stories of men from semiconductor companies stealing each other's wives in the most literal sense, gallons of expensive liquors, contraband Cuban cigars, break-ins into labs, and fisticuffs at business meetings were the world of the valley back then.

Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they have a Chinese move against Taiwan more on the mind than an earthquake or other natural disaster.

I would imagine that some DoD plan states that all those fabs in Taiwan get blown up upon invasion.

That would do it.

Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#59
post #19

As I read elsewhere (don't have the link) this is supposed to be the #2 chip supplier for the automotive industry, and the #1 and #3 closed down because of the Texas Power outage and are still not operational. Anyone know more?

You read it here: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-st...

Some more details on the NXP texas fuckup: https://outline.com/rfBWzn

Re: Fire Destroys 300mm Line of Renesas’ Naka Factory

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would imagine that some DoD plan states that all those fabs in Taiwan get blown up upon invasion.

That would do it.

Thinking about it, I would expect some kidnap... immigration to the US of some personnel would probably happen.
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