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Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

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Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#51

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

syntaxing wrote: post #31
11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #3

Equipment companies are running at an all-out sprint to ship fabrication equipment. Applied Materials, the world's largest by revenue, has 1,390 open positions. #4 Lam Research has 570. The equipment space is brutally cyclic, akin to the oil services industry. Revenue can jump as much as 60% year over year, only to plummet 40% the next. It's always worrisome to see these macro-trends, feasting now, but famine sure to…

I think this is the problem. The downcycle for the semi industry should of came around 2-3 years ago. The issue is that never came and the industry is growing at an even more ridiculous rate. The semi industry is single handed buying a good chunk of the OEM equipment space these past 3 years. Just get a THK rail quote and look at awe at the one year+ lead time.

There was a huge boom in equipment in 2017 the 3D NAND demand thundered in. Semis over-invested as they frequently do, and the equipment biz then softened in 2018-2019. 2020 was solid and now 2021 is off to the races again, thanks (sadly) to the technology accelerating effects of COVID.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#53

Post by fomine3 »

zokier wrote: post #16

And people scream at nvidia trying to segment the market a bit and/or price gouging. Meanwhile nowhere near all launch day orders (7 months ago) 3080 orders have been delivered, and at this rate I suspect there will be new gen out before all the outstanding 3080 orders have been fulfilled.

I believe (something looks like permanent) ETH crash is enough to fix GPU demand including miners selling their GPUs as used. By introducing PoS or gov's regulation?

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#54

Post by qazxcvbnmlp »

NonEUCitizen wrote: post #40
ppf wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean, like manufacturing electronics? It takes about 1MWh to manufacture a laptop, the same energy needed to drive a Tesla for 3000 miles. https://www.networkworld.com/article/2229029/computer-factor...

You can avoid a lot of flying and driving by using zoom on that laptop.

Yeah but flying is more fun.

- Sent from the Seattle Airport

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#55

Post by baybal2 »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #51
syntaxing wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is the problem. The downcycle for the semi industry should of came around 2-3 years ago. The issue is that never came and the industry is growing at an even more ridiculous rate. The semi industry is single handed buying a good chunk of the OEM equipment space these past 3 years. Just get a THK rail quote and look at awe at the one year+ lead time.

There was a huge boom in equipment in 2017 the 3D NAND demand thundered in. Semis over-invested as they frequently do, and the equipment biz then softened in 2018-2019. 2020 was solid and now 2021 is off to the races again, thanks (sadly) to the technology accelerating effects of COVID.

Are you working in toolmaking by any chance?

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#56

Post by stevofolife »

TrispusAttucks wrote: post #44
HenryKissinger wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese government is willing to spend what it takes to win and this is the reason why they will win. The US government is way too reluctant to spend in this regard. The Chinese government is investing hundreds of billions in artificial intelligence, hundreds of billions more in renewables, and so on. I don't see Congress giving a blank check to scientists and engineers, like China does.

Here in the USA we're more focused on the important things, like passing identity politics legislation.

Of course, so important.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#57

Post by baybal2 »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #17

Given the strategic importance of semiconductors and how expensive new fabs are and how long they take to start production (if you start planning a new state of the art fab now it'll take ~5 years before it's ready to produce chips) it seems like perhaps we need to look a public-private partnerships here in the US. The Chinese government is funding fabs. While we tend to be squeamish about such things here in the US,…

Making chips in US makes little sense except to get the coveted tarif relief for the very few remaining highly tarriffed goods.

And if China decides to put sanctions on your fabs, you will just get a $10B microelectronics theme park on your hands because you will have nowhere to sell your chips.

Do not count the last point lightly. I'm fully serious saying that US will likely have nowhere to sell those chips to.

And that itself is an even bigger problem for US than it falling behind in semi competition by itself.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#58

Post by AnthonyMouse »

Udik wrote: post #48
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you saying that Chinese semiconductor companies are outcompeting US semiconductor companies because they have greater access to capital? That doesn't seem right to me. Suppose you have two companies in an industry where the start up cost is ten billion dollars. One can borrow ten billion dollars at 0% interest for the next five years, but they have to pay it back. The other just gets ten billion dollars from th…

Isn't that equivalent to starting up with VC money (and stocks, later)? You get billions to start up, and if you fail you don't have to pay anything back. It's the business model of Amazon, Uber, Tesla, Airbnb...

All of your examples are companies that were pioneers in immature markets. And then if you succeed, the VCs own your company. It's not charity.

Whereas China will give a Chinese company billions of dollars to unseat an incumbent in a mature industry and expect nothing in return except for that industry to be in China.

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#59

Post by scott_codie »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #36
scott_codie wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that Chinese semiconductor companies are outcompeting US semiconductor companies because they have greater access to capital? That doesn't seem right to me.

> Are you saying that Chinese semiconductor companies are outcompeting US semiconductor companies because they have greater access to capital? That doesn't seem right to me. Suppose you have two companies in an industry where the start up cost is ten billion dollars. One can borrow ten billion dollars at 0% interest for the next five years, but they have to pay it back. The other just gets ten billion dollars from th…

Are you saying that the Chinese government is subsidizing the entire semiconductor industry to drive US companies out of business?

Re: Semiconductors Demand 30% Above Supply, 20% Year-on-Year Growth

#60

Post by the__alchemist »

chadaustin wrote: post #9
the__alchemist wrote: post #4

I'm having a tough time buying STM32 MCUs. When I started my most recent designs about 6 months ago, the SMT-assembly service I used, and retailers like Digikey and Mouser had ample stock. Now, I'm unable to start production due to being unable to find MCUs. The whole STM32 line is affected - Only a handful of variants are available, which may or may not be the ones a given design can use.

What assembly service do you use?

JLCPCB. I'm curious if there are others that have stock; may have to switch if JLC and the retailers are all out. I posted on the ST forums; the replies speculated it would be months for this to sort out.
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