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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

tr0lly.com

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#51

Post by hbosch »

desmap wrote: post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

A little superfluous. Couldn't we just assume that any blog post about any topic "might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior"? A news article critical of Amazon warehouse management could also be seen the exact same way.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#53

Post by diegoperini »

desmap wrote: post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

The OP can be a victim of the original article's author as well. I agree with your intention though.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#54

Post by Tepix »

Closi wrote: post #28
bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actuall…

You're not taking inflation into account.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#55

Post by dragonwriter »

llcoolv wrote: post #24
aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Silk road days are gone. Ulbrich got disproportionately punished + convicted on very very dubious hired gun charges. Since then a similar approach was applied on almost every darknet marketplace around, resulting in that these days with BTC at ATH the darknet marketplaces are at an all-time crisis (even though legacy media is still pushing the "criminal's money" narrative :/). Not to mention that all the major mining…

> Ulbrich got [...] convicted on very very dubious hired gun charges.

No, he didn't. He got convicted of money laundering, conspiracy to commit computer hacking, and conspiracy to traffic narcotics. Evidence related to the alleged murder for hire scheme was presented at trial and was weighed in the sentencing phase in terms of what sentence he got within the range authorized for the crimes he was convicted of, but he was not tried, convicted, or sentenced for “hired gun charges”.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#56

Post by solosoyokaze »

u10 wrote: post #45
solosoyokaze wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's primary purpose is a store of value that can't be manipulated by the government. It's succeeding wildly at this. There's a lot of extreme Bitcoin hate on this site, but BTC is helping a ton of people right now, as evidenced by the rapidly increasing demand and money flowing into Bitcoin investment.

Instead it's being manipulated by a few large whales.

For a decade?

There really is no alternative for where to park your money in 2021 unless you want to buy real-estate or stocks both of which come with their own massive set of problems.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#57

Post by ashtonkem »

aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Bitcoin is an awful currency for illegal transactions. A permanent public ledger waiting for eventual de-anonymization sounds like a prosecutors dream.

I never understood why people described Bitcoin as an anonymous currency, it really isn’t. Arguably physical currency is much, much more anonymous than Bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#58

Post by centimeter »

minitoar wrote: post #46
deft wrote: post #25

A blog by a guy going by Trolly, that can't even properly set up HTTPS, and admits he makes things up in the headerline means absolutely nothing. Tether has been involved in shady dealings for a long time. Last bull run people like this guy were claiming it was all going to blow up and tether was worthless etc etc etc. That never happened. This hysteria is very common for nocoiners, why are they so worried about my w…

did you read the article? He calculates the risk using basic math and publicly available numbers from Bitcoin futures.

Ah, well if he uses basic math, his conclusions must be correct.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#59

Post by eimrine »

marricks wrote: post #32

Don't know if anyone else made this mistake but: author is not saying bitcoin will 50/50 collapse tonight just some night this year. > So the next time someone tries to explain to you that “Bitcoin is a store of value”, when the chances of it getting utterly destroyed overnight before the year is over are around 50/50, try not to shoot coffee through your nose laughing. EDIT: Not saying I agree with the prediction, i…

What probability to meet a dinosaur walking next to your house? It is 50%, either you will meet it or not.
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