Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#51

Post by cbhl » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 5:44 AM UTC

angmarsbane wrote: post #17

One thing I keep getting tripped up on with EV cars is the usability during an emergency. I grew up in SoCal when there were rolling black-outs. Just this week, a windstorm took out my parent’s power for 3 days. I don’t view electricity to be as reliable as gas. What fact am I missing that can change my view on this?

Wikipedia says the 2000-01 California energy crisis was caused by Enron. I believe it will take years of engineering-driven investment (upgrade lines; trim trees; clear flammables from the transmission corridors) to make power reliable in California again, but the California energy companies are bankrupt (again?) after judgments in recent years' wildfires.

I believe the reliability problem is worst in California and is less of a problem in other states and countries. (But offset in part by the large number of charging stations in metro areas, at least in SFBA.)

That said, a replacement doesn't need to be as reliable as its predecessor, it only needs to be reliable enough. Cell phones, for example, will go down a few hours after a power outage, whereas POTS phones were engineered to stay up (and provide power to corded phones) during power outages and weather events. Cell phones are more convenient.

EVs have two nice properties: faster acceleration than gas cars (which some view as a safety feature), and they're cheaper to fuel than gas cars. This can tip the balance in favor of an EV for day-to-day use.

If you are prepping, I think it still makes sense to have at least one conventional gas-powered car. Just make sure to keep the tank at least 3/4s full; gas pumps tend to go down during blackouts.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#52

Post by colinmhayes » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 5:58 AM UTC

morty_s wrote: post #6

chovybizzass wrote: post #4

I am going to buy a new car soon and I think it will be the last time gasoline will be available for me. I'm going 4x4 so there's not much EV options.

I felt the same way. My wife and I bought a model y in November and we love it. If I could get an electric Tacoma I would, but I think I’m going to have to get into the cyber truck if I want an electric truck.

Rivian?

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#53

Post by handmodel » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 5:59 AM UTC

angmarsbane wrote: post #17

One thing I keep getting tripped up on with EV cars is the usability during an emergency. I grew up in SoCal when there were rolling black-outs. Just this week, a windstorm took out my parent’s power for 3 days. I don’t view electricity to be as reliable as gas. What fact am I missing that can change my view on this?

I have a similar sensibility when it comes to generators. I grew up in the northeast and there were two ice storms I remember where we lost power for over a week. After the second, my parents got a gas generator that could be refueled when it ran out - even while the power was still out.

If they were buying today I'm sure many would recommend some type of electric powerwall to store energy but I'm doubtful in the situations you need it the most it would be there. And the whole point of getting a generator is not to provide you with electricity for the time you lost it for three hours - but for the one in ten year storm that leaves you without power for a week.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#54

Post by Robotbeat » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 6:03 AM UTC

magicalhippo wrote: post #24

CameronNemo wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the replacement battery will have better tech!

AFAIK the main problem with the Leaf battery is that it doesn't have active thermal management[1]. I guess it's possible one could make a replacement battery pack which has an internal cooling loop, but it would be quite limited in how much heat it could get rid of through the battery case body without external radiators. Of course better batteries might heat up less when used or charged, due to lower internal resist…

Battery chemistry has improved so while it will never be a Tesla (lack of coolant loop, etc), I have heard some folks have gotten a significantly better Leaf after replacement.

A heater for freezing days would be pretty simple.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#55

Post by Toutouxc » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 6:22 AM UTC

WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #43

acomjean wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a solar array on the roof. It’s great. But the dc->ac converter needs the grid to be active to do its conversion, so when the power goes out no solar. (I suspect it syncs with the grids 60hz...) If you include a battery backup in your system, you can run without grid power. When I worked at a power monitoring start up we had a demo house that was charging an electric rav4, so it’s possible.

(I suspect it syncs with the grids 60hz...) Yeah, that's the actual reason. I've seen someone use a small Honda generator to generate the frequency required to trick the solar generator into going... it's a weird setup because you basically tie in your generator using a breaker, so both generator and solar can be enabled at the same time.

That sounds borderline stupid, is there a technical reason you can't just generate the "clock" internally? Do most of the devices require grid AC?

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#56

Post by toast0 » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 6:25 AM UTC

angmarsbane wrote: post #17

One thing I keep getting tripped up on with EV cars is the usability during an emergency. I grew up in SoCal when there were rolling black-outs. Just this week, a windstorm took out my parent’s power for 3 days. I don’t view electricity to be as reliable as gas. What fact am I missing that can change my view on this?

I've got a PHEV; when I need to exercise my portable generator (it's supposed to run for at least 30 minutes once a month), I plug in my car to at least have some load, rather than letting it just idle.

Personally, PHEV makes a lot more sense to me than full EV. My particular model (Ford C-Max Energi) has pretty low EV only capacity (20ish miles, if you stay under 60 mph and relatively flat), and the battery interferes with cargo space, but if you got the capacity up to about 50 miles, that would do a lot of people's (non-covid) daily commute with a single charge (either overnight at home, or during the day at work; but you wouldn't need both). And when you need to go farther, 500+ miles per tank, 5 minute fillup.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#57

Post by natch » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 6:26 AM UTC

angmarsbane wrote: post #17

One thing I keep getting tripped up on with EV cars is the usability during an emergency. I grew up in SoCal when there were rolling black-outs. Just this week, a windstorm took out my parent’s power for 3 days. I don’t view electricity to be as reliable as gas. What fact am I missing that can change my view on this?

Generally people don’t have their cars sitting around at close to zero miles of charge left. So you can drive to a charger that does have power, if your house doesn’t. You can always come up with fearful scenarios though. What about pumping gas during a power outage? I guess they have battery backups for the pumps? Many Superchargers have battery backups as well, built in. And some are powered by on-site solar with battery storage. But again you can always come up with a worst case scenario.

During COVID lockdowns I was wondering if the national guard would be deployed to gas stations to enforce limits on driving by limiting gas purchases. If we want to just make up scenarios, this is the kind of scenario you could avoid by having an EV with your own solar and backup batteries.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#58

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 6:26 AM UTC

nic-waller wrote: post #19

angmarsbane wrote: post #17

One thing I keep getting tripped up on with EV cars is the usability during an emergency. I grew up in SoCal when there were rolling black-outs. Just this week, a windstorm took out my parent’s power for 3 days. I don’t view electricity to be as reliable as gas. What fact am I missing that can change my view on this?

It's easier to set up back yard solar panels than a back yard fuel refinery.

[deleted]

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#59

Post by erikstarck » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 6:27 AM UTC

danielheath wrote: post #11

Up 43% is great news. To put it in context: There were 91 million cars produced last year (per wikipedia) and 3 million electric cars sold.

If that growth rate continues, electric cars will pass 50% sold in 8 years.

Going to be an interesting decade.

Re: Sales of electric cars up by 43% in 2020

#60

Post by r00fus » Mon, Jan 25, 2021, 6:28 AM UTC

sircastor wrote: post #10

I’ll be interested to see the lifespan of EVs for “normal” people. I’ve got a 2012 Nissan LEAF we bought post-lease in 2015. I love it still, and don’t have any plans to replace it. The battery is not in great shape, but it gets me where I need to go. I am genuinely considering replacing the battery rather than buying another EV when the battery finally fails.

An EV inverter for $200 can allow your car to power your refrigerator + router/phone/laptops for many hours (days for a LR Tesla).