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Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#51

Post by amscanne »

jiggawatts wrote: post #45
rasz wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. They dont even ship cars with Stereo front facing cameras. Eight cameras, twelve hypersonic sensors, one forward facing radar, GPS, and still no stereo vision resulting in cars plowing full speed into stationary obstacles ....

It's possible to extract depth information from a monocular lens. There's several ways to do this, and Tesla has talked publicly that they've implemented at least one approach. One is depth-from-defocus combined with "overlap" hierarchy information that can be used to build a depth-map. This is the technique Tesla talked about. Interestingly, instead of manually coding up this algorithm, they simply trained a neural…

> One is depth-from-defocus combined with "overlap" hierarchy information that can be used to build a depth-map. This is the technique Tesla talked about. Interestingly, instead of manually coding up this algorithm, they simply trained a neural net to do it! The trick was to use the radar data as the "ground truth", and train the NN to predict it based on the optical input. It works quite well, and there are videos floating about showing how a Tesla can build up an accurate 3D model of the world around it as it drives along.

Wow, that scares the shit out of me. I hope this is not serious. How could they possibly understand the neural net and how it will behave under novel scenarios? This is the opposite of what you want in a safety critical system.

Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#52

Post by scsilver »

sn_master wrote: post #28
scsilver wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you think we are in fully autonomous planes. Curious if that problem is easier or harder than cars.

Planes have centralized Air Traffic Control that dictates every move from take off until landing of all planes within their zone. The planes only have to follow the ATC orders and not worry about other planes except for very rare emergencies. Even in those, ATC usually gives them a large block away from other planes to sort things out. Cars in comparison can start at any moment, from any location and want to go anywh…

Could atc ramp scale in its ability to handle a denser set of planes? Could a network of planes host a decentralized atc that manages the traffic, similar to a decentralized road traffic control that would help manage automated cars through a 5g conmection in a city.

Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#53

Post by Closi »

HellDunkel wrote: post #46
Closi wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, Waymo has demonstrated full autonomous using lidar?

I’d argue Waymo is not a competitor and offers no ADAS. They operate autonomous vehicles in confined areas afaik. Driving in traffic, interacting with humans is a different story.

Well full automatic driving is more advanced than driver assistance, and Tesla is claiming that the current system will be scaled to full autonomous driving which is what the original article is about.

The waymo car is the only actively-used car with Lidar anyway as far as I’m aware, so if you exclude Waymo then your statement is self fulfilling no matter how good or bad Tesla’s ADAS is!

Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#54

Post by nickik »

clouddrover wrote: post #44
nickik wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Betting one friend on a small timing detail is fun and all, but that not really what people mean when people talk about 'not betting against Elon'. We are talking about big things. Elon said they will capture Apollo size booster directly from the air on ocean space ports. And the majority of people were like 'mh, sound reasonable will probably work in a few years'. Think about laterally any other person or government…

> Elon said Elon said coronavirus would be finished in the US by April, 2020. How'd that work out for him?

I love how people always take on of a few examples and point out to that. You would think such bad arguments are above this forum.

Also, that is not something that Elon or his companies would do so it doesn't really speak to my point.

Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#55

Post by sn_master »

scsilver wrote: post #52
sn_master wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Planes have centralized Air Traffic Control that dictates every move from take off until landing of all planes within their zone. The planes only have to follow the ATC orders and not worry about other planes except for very rare emergencies. Even in those, ATC usually gives them a large block away from other planes to sort things out. Cars in comparison can start at any moment, from any location and want to go anywh…

Could atc ramp scale in its ability to handle a denser set of planes? Could a network of planes host a decentralized atc that manages the traffic, similar to a decentralized road traffic control that would help manage automated cars through a 5g conmection in a city.

ATC isn't only about managing traffic. Each region's government has their own rules and they can choose to enforce new rules at anytime (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaTv1vAC3W8). How would you enforce a 9/11 like shutdown in a decentralized system? Or if the Internet goes down?

The closest thing to that are collision avoidance systems that instruct pilots to go up/down by talking to one another and agreeing on a plan for a particular situation.

Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#56

Post by clouddrover »

nickik wrote: post #54
clouddrover wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elon said Elon said coronavirus would be finished in the US by April, 2020. How'd that work out for him?

I love how people always take on of a few examples and point out to that. You would think such bad arguments are above this forum. Also, that is not something that Elon or his companies would do so it doesn't really speak to my point.

You haven't made any points. You've merely expressed a religious belief.

Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#57

Post by mxschumacher »

nickik wrote: post #54
clouddrover wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elon said Elon said coronavirus would be finished in the US by April, 2020. How'd that work out for him?

I love how people always take on of a few examples and point out to that. You would think such bad arguments are above this forum. Also, that is not something that Elon or his companies would do so it doesn't really speak to my point.

here are a few more examples: https://elonmusk.today/

Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#58

Post by nickik »

mxschumacher wrote: post #57
nickik wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how people always take on of a few examples and point out to that. You would think such bad arguments are above this forum. Also, that is not something that Elon or his companies would do so it doesn't really speak to my point.

here are a few more examples: https://elonmusk.today/

Tons of these are already outdated. Others are future looking statements that have not yet been disproved.

If that is the best you can do for THE LAST 10 years its actually embracing.

Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#59

Post by HellDunkel »

Closi wrote: post #53
HellDunkel wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d argue Waymo is not a competitor and offers no ADAS. They operate autonomous vehicles in confined areas afaik. Driving in traffic, interacting with humans is a different story.

Well full automatic driving is more advanced than driver assistance, and Tesla is claiming that the current system will be scaled to full autonomous driving which is what the original article is about. The waymo car is the only actively-used car with Lidar anyway as far as I’m aware, so if you exclude Waymo then your statement is self fulfilling no matter how good or bad Tesla’s ADAS is!

The point i wanted to express is that although LIDAR could be an improvement it is not per se the „way to go“ with ADAS today. Please consider that some, eg Audi, offer ADAS using lidar and it is not nearly as capeable as Teslas system.

Costs matter.

I am very certain that Waymo has no autonomous vehicle today that mist people would be ok to go around their neighbourhood driverless. „Full autonomy“- socially acceptable- does not exist today. Whether it can be done, with or without Lidar, remains to be seen.

Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says

#60

Post by uncoder0 »

lars_thomas wrote: post #38
sagarm wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cost. Tesla has to sell cars to price-sensitive consumers. Adding a LIDAR would likely increase the price significantly. Given their business model, they basically have to argue that LIDAR is not necessary.

I agree that when Tesla made their first promises of delivering FSD HW (just add SW a little bit later) reasonably priced solid state lidars were not available. So a story had to be made 'humans have eyes and they can drive, lidar is not needed'. Super hard to back now when they sold FSD to so many customers still waiting for the SW update.

I think this right here is the issue. They've backed themselves into the corner of 'We Don't need LIDAR'. When we were scrapping together on a 75k budget we bought budget lidar with a 180 degree linear sweep and it cost ~5k, 14 years ago, from SICK and it still was better than a modern 2020 model Tesla is at detecting a white van crossing the road in broad daylight.
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