When did we switch the emphasis from tracking deaths, to tracking infections?
There's still a focus on deaths, but greatly increased testing capacity means that infection estimates are becoming more accurate.
London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
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Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#52And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…
NHS is overwhelmed every winter if the hyperbolic headlines are to be believed
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#533478 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths
~1k died in the U.K. but the US has about 5x the population
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#54And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…
A colleague made the point that we need more pictures of overflowing morgues and ICUs and (like is happening in LA) people waiting in an ambulance for 7-8 hours (and some of those people dying because of it).
Just like the US government banned (discouraged?) pictures of caskets coming back from war.
These images need to be on the news and on news websites 24/7.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#553478 people died from COVID in the US yesterday. https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths
~1700 people per day die of heart disease in America and have done so for decades. I think we should shut down the economy until we can get everyone's heart healthy.
Can't believe after 12 months this argument is still being made.
You say shutting down the economy so casually, as if it has no impact on an infectious disease spreading during a pandemic.
If there hadn't been any shutdown, it would lead to a tenfold increase in infections and an even higher than tenfold increase in death as hospitals will be completely overwhelmed and unable to provide normal healthcare.
But if you think a 20x death rate from the nr 1 cause of death (heart disease), preventable by a lockdown for a few more months as a vaccine is rolled out, is no big deal, then there really is no arguing with you.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#56Here is a video filmed in London this Christmas: https://youtu.be/Yz7wJZln6Kw Plenty of people outside. In fact, I would call it lightly crowded, although less than other years. Many people don’t wear masks. It’s not a surprise that transmission has increased. Nevertheless, London looked absolutely beautiful. Not sure if this was worth the risks though.
What makes you unsure of the risk was worth it?
Just the fact that it’s not my city and not my risk, so not for me to decide.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
The lockdown was tightened for Christmas. [1] 1: https://nypost.com/2020/12/20/londons-covid-19-christmas-loc... EDIT: It's weird that people don't believe me. Here is a BBC article talking about the Tier 4 lockdown that occurred right before Christmas: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55380644 From the article: "Millions of people across England have been banned from meeting friends and family indoors ov…
We are probably living in two different worlds. There is reality and there is the world you live in. In real world it is not the restrictions that save lives, it is people following them. If people ignore restrictions it doesn't matter whether they were or were not tightened. Actually, if people were sane we would not need restrictions. Everybody would wash their hands, avoid touching their face, wear their mask prop…
I am afraid I don't understand your point, are you saying London did in fact loosen it's lockdown over Christmas?
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#58When did we switch the emphasis from tracking deaths, to tracking infections?
Not sure what you mean since tracking infections, hospitalizations, and deaths are all useful. However, there are reporting delays for infections and deaths during weekends and holidays.
Infections happen earlier than hospitalizations and deaths but the count depends on people getting tested.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nope, December was pretty free and easy (comparatively speaking) and Christmas Day was not a lockdown. Boxing Day was (sort of) but I know plenty of people breached that and travelled home after Boxing Day. Source: am British also (and stayed home and saw no one at all over Christmas and new year, just sayin)
I am British and living in London. From the article: "London saw wild scenes of a weekend mass exodus before the start of a Christmas lockdown and travel ban sparked by a new, more infectious mutation of COVID-19."
Cool, not sure how your quote is related to what I said (not snarking here, genuinely don’t see the link)
The mass travel before the Boxing Day restrictions kind of proves people were away from home, seeing family etc this spreading the virus.
Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing
#60This article is confusing. It starts off by saying this is an analysis of "best" and "worst" case scenarios for continued growth in cases, but later it says: > HSJ understands that the briefing was part of an attempt to get senior clinical leaders to focus on what they would have to do, if current growth trends were not surpressed by the tighter lockdown . So, er, what if the growth trends are suppressed by the tight…
The hospitalisation curve for the next fortnight is largely locked in by what was happening before lockdown started. If lockdown has a positive effect, it'll be visible in the hospitalisation stats after 12 days or so.