I want to appeal the flag! This discussion is interesting, and there are relatively few loons.
Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
#52Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…
This is the virus that has probably received the most attention by the largest number of global experts in history, or close to.
If there was anything that showed it was in any way artificial it would have been detected by all mainstream experts by now and that information would have been publicised one way or another. Yet these claims and 'evidence' are only reported as coming from fringe people if not likely paid 'agents' (I'm thinking about that HK 'scientist' girl that fled and is in the US now, doing the rounds of all tabloids on the planet).
On the other hand, there are known virii extremely similar to it in the mild (90-95% similar and related).
I don't know if the hypothesis that it may be artificial is plausible to start with, but the facts seem to weigh heavily against it while the interests of some to create this "conspiracy theory" is pretty obvious as are the interests of some to expose China if they had actual evidence.
Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
#53I want to appeal the flag! This discussion is interesting, and there are relatively few loons.
Same here, but the vouch option is just not there fore some reason. Strange.
Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
#54The Chinese sure acted like it was a possibility that it came from their own lab - their initial reaction was to downplay and cover up.
Using this logic isn’t it likely it came from the US? Simultaneously saying it’s nothing and China did it seems suspicious.
Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
#55.
Did anyone do the same with research for other countries? I’d be willing to bet the US and European research also mirrors features of COVID-19.
Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
#56For what it is worth, they say there is an 81% probability, based on their analysis, that it was a lab leak. That is not the same thing as "claims COVID-19 originated in a lab" - so I think the title is a little misleading - which is probably why the title actually seems to be "What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)?"
From their Twitter account: "Probably our most surprising finding to date: COVID-19 has likely originated in a lab. A probabilistic analysis shows the proximity to a major coronavirus lab and anomalies in the genetic code are too unlikely for SARS-CoV-2 to have developed naturally. " https://twitter.com/Rootclaim/status/1343207878325383168
The problem here is that "anomalies in the genetic code" is, I believe, their claim, not fact, but presented as a fact along with established facts, which may be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to spread essentially 'fake news'.
Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
#57What if it turns out to be like the Spanish Flu where we got the origin wrong and most of this conjecture is meaningless because the premise is faulty?
Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
#58Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…
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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
#59> When you see a reliable public betting challenge with real stakes, you can be very confident the claim is true at a probability that is significantly above 50% (assuming 1:1 odds are being offered). This makes the assumption that the overall stakes are even. What if Alex Jones puts up 100K that boiled frog eyes cure COVID? He could be absurdly wrong, but the additional credibility offered by this may let him sell a…
The assumption the writer makes about correlation of odds and probability is nonsensical - betting houses change the odds regularly so they make money based on essentially random bettors current intuition.
Exactly, like under the 'WIV lab procedures' section it states:
Probabilistic Estimates:
Labs with lax security and procedures are conservatively estimated as 2x more likely to produce a lab escape.
However, since the reports are not very reliable, this is reduced to 1.5x.
There's no explanation or methodology presented as to how they derive these probabilities based on articles they found in the news and most of their assertions rely on this inexplicable methodology. Another example of just how nonsensical their conclusions are, under the sections 'WIV disassociation' and 'Chinese response' they again rely on news articles to conclude China's response merits suspicion and therefor must be covering up the source of COVID. This assertion is just illogical and fatally flawed. While China may have motivation to cover it up if that were the case, scientists in other countries who have obviously spent a great deal of time examining COVID and concluded it's zoonotic wouldn't have motivation to cover it up. Yet this obvious logical deduction is not factored into their conclusions or even merits a mention.
Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it
#60Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…
>consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions
Really? I usually see a lot of plain disagreement based on reasonable lines of thinking, but only a very small proportion of "_extremely_ strong" wording. Are you sure you're not just interpreting a multitude of similar opinions as creating a feeling of that opinion being "extremely strong"? Or that you're not just thinking of the cases where people are responding to the overtly political conspiracy hyperbole that sometimes comes as a wrapper around the proposal?