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The Ballmer Days Are Over

brooksreview.net

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Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#51

Post by peterb »

asr wrote: post #31

I'm sorry, he lost me at comparing Microsoft stock to Apple and Google over the past 10 years. In retrospect, those are two of the most successful publicly traded tech companies of the period--not a fair comparison. Not to mention those were small companies in 2000. For Microsoft stock to have increased 1200% (as Google's did) it would have probably had to grow into some very significant portion of the world economy.…

If he had started his graph at 1986, when MSFT first went public, it would be more of a fair comparison.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#53

Post by brg »

melling wrote: post #5

The world will be a little better off with a decline of Microsoft. 90% desktop market share is too much. More diversity will be healthier. Chromebooks should take some market share. Microsoft can own 50-70% market share and still be very profitable. They might even be more innovative in other areas.

Chromebooks as they are now are not attractive. Apple's mobile platform, MacBook, IPad, IPhone, is significantly eating into MS share.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#54

Post by stock_toaster »

pkteison wrote: post #23
macrael wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you expand on that comment? I have no idea what this is supposed to mean. Should this change how we interpret the stock price growth comparison between Microsoft, Apple, and Google? Just thinking about it, I only see two ways in which that would change the stocks valuation. On the one hand, it must reduce the capital that Microsoft has on hand, which might reduce the price of the stock. On the other hand, I would…

You can make money by buying a stock, having the business get more valuable so the stock goes up, and selling the stock at a higher value. Or you can make money by buying a stock, having the business make money and pay it out to you in dividends. At the end of the day, what matters here is how much money you make and how long it took you to get it, which is a function of sell price - buy price + dividends received -…

Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe an additional benefit is that the tax rate on dividends is substantially lower than that of capital gains.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#55

Post by ry0ohki »

brown9-2 wrote: post #47

Windows Mobile 6.5 was a powerhouse of a product. Pre-2007 most U.S. buyers of smart phones chose between BlackBerry and Windows Mobile 6.5. Both were small screened devices with a hardware keyboard — with exception to the few HTC devices with stylus based touch screens. Palm was struggling at the time and Windows Mobile was the dominate player in consumer minds, BlackBerry was the beast in boardrooms. This seems off…

You had to be one of the rare consumers who were purchasing a "smart phone". I remember writing software for the platform because it seemed like it was really going to take off, especially when things like the Dell Axim were starting to sell.

Side note: Anyone want a Dell Axim?

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#56

Post by bane »

brown9-2 wrote: post #47

Windows Mobile 6.5 was a powerhouse of a product. Pre-2007 most U.S. buyers of smart phones chose between BlackBerry and Windows Mobile 6.5. Both were small screened devices with a hardware keyboard — with exception to the few HTC devices with stylus based touch screens. Palm was struggling at the time and Windows Mobile was the dominate player in consumer minds, BlackBerry was the beast in boardrooms. This seems off…

I don't know about 2006 exactly, but I remember tons of people (pre-iPhone) with Windows Mobile phones who bought them for personal use. People who had their phones issued for business always ended up with a Blackberry.

Of course I also knew quite a few people with Palm Pilots, so...

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#57

Post by brg »

asr wrote: post #31

I'm sorry, he lost me at comparing Microsoft stock to Apple and Google over the past 10 years. In retrospect, those are two of the most successful publicly traded tech companies of the period--not a fair comparison. Not to mention those were small companies in 2000. For Microsoft stock to have increased 1200% (as Google's did) it would have probably had to grow into some very significant portion of the world economy.…

You are correct in that perspective, but Microsoft is supposed to be the smartest kid in the class. They've said so. And taking them on their word, analysts are supposed to compare it against the other brilliant companies in the sector.

Even so, look at the comparison this way. Google and Apple both created and captured new markets; Google with online advertising and Apple with mobile devices. This proves that there was a huge amount of room for innovation and growth in the last ten years. But comparatively, MS has done nothing. It hasn't grown in any direction.

And what makes the comparison even more relevant is that MS has actively attempted, and failed, to copy both of the other leaders--Ad center is a failure, MS online strategy is balkanized and schizophrenic, the zune is dead, and WP7 is not gaining traction. That failure is reflected in the chart.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#58

Post by stock_toaster »

johnl wrote: post #43

Hardly, here's why: If you can link the phone with desktop applications you have a hit that neither Apple or Google can duplicate. Think of you desktop as a server for your phone. Who better to coordinate the operating systems of the two than Microsoft. If that's what he is thinking, I can't wait to watch the dog fight between the three of them.

You mean like Apple's facetime or Google's gtalk (not sure about the standalone client, but you can call phone numbers from gmail)?

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#59

Post by [deleted] »

thematt wrote: post #25
ghshephard wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. It never ceases to amaze me how many people fail to realize that you need to correct for dividends (One time, and otherwise) when calculating market cap.

Why should the market cap be adjusted to reflect dividends? Those have been paid out to shareholders and no longer represent assets of the company.

[deleted]

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#60

Post by ry0ohki »

teyc wrote: post #38
cabalamat wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Microsoft could have built a skype clone in-house for far less than $8bn. But would people actually sign up and use it Yes. MS has a massive installed base. If they can't leverage that to get people to use it, they are clearly incompetent.

Pre-antitrust days, that would be exactly what MS would have done. But it has been battered and bruised by the investigations and must have sworn to themselves "never again" will they ever devote managerial time to do what could have been solved by an outright purchase.

I think this is a key point. Ballmer has been hogtied with the fallout of the anti-trust stuff. Microsoft can't use it's "installed base" advantage in the same way it once could. We'll see how great Google does once it inevitably faces the same issue.
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