Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B • Hacker News Board

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#51

Post by larzang » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:16 PM UTC

onion2k wrote: post #28

thesimon wrote: post #6

Wasn't Uber's whole money losing strategy based on the vision that one day they'll use their self-driving cars to get the driving done for cheaper?

Uber don't need to invent self-driving themselves so long as whoever does invent self-driving cars sells them on the free market. Uber has a strong brand and loyal customers, and they could make out like bandits even if they have to buy the tech from someone else. Their real problem is if some other company perfects self-driving cars and doesn't sell them. Perhaps Uber have decided that's unlikely, either because no…

It seems really premature to make any declarations about brand loyalty when Uber is still majorly subsidizing consumer prices with a VC cash bonfire.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#52

Post by st1x7 » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:16 PM UTC

lhorie wrote: post #10

thesimon wrote: post #6

Wasn't Uber's whole money losing strategy based on the vision that one day they'll use their self-driving cars to get the driving done for cheaper?

Within Uber, it was categorized as a "big bet", as opposed to a core vertical, like ride share/eats. Having now shed new mobility, elevate and now SDV, It looks like Dara is really set on focusing on the core verticals now.

Big bets and promises for the future was all they had. Trying to be a solid profitable business in a dying industry isn't going to work out well for them.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#53

Post by dboreham » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:17 PM UTC

tuyguntn wrote: post #15

what happens to Uber now when Waymo releases self-driving taxi? Will they lose all competitive advantage?

They won't. Unless that is "self-driving taxi" becomes redefined to mean "on roads with no human drivers and no pedestrians".

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#54

Post by asdff » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:18 PM UTC

paxys wrote: post #12

thesimon wrote: post #6

Wasn't Uber's whole money losing strategy based on the vision that one day they'll use their self-driving cars to get the driving done for cheaper?

That claim was infinitely repeated on internet message boards but never acknowledged by the company or taken seriously in the industry or by investors. That entire division was an expensive moonshot. Uber's core strategy and valuation have always been rooted in being a taxi company with human drivers.

So whats the big plan to lower overhead on rides? I looked up their last quarter and it was billions lost yet again. This doesn't seem sustainable, just shoveling money into the furnace quarter after quarter like that.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#55

Post by necubi » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:18 PM UTC

aardvarkr wrote: post #45

aardvarkr wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems disingenuous and intended to save face. I liken this to the Soviets claiming they never lost the space race after the US moon landing because "landing humans was never the goal" and they denied ever building a lunar lander. I think the kids these days call it gaslighting. Statements from key executives at uber like Meyhofer who said “The ultimate north star for the company is Level 4 autonomy” are proof of…

Yeah the more I look the more I find proof that self-driving cars has been seen as an existential threat by Uber/Lyft for years and years with Travis Kalanick (ex-CEO) saying it repeatedly. Here's an interview from him on exactly this topic. https://www.businessinsider.com/travis-kalanick-interview-on...

If there are competitors (e.g., Waymo) that have self-driving that's significantly cheaper, then Uber and Lyft can't compete. So it's a huge potential threat to their businesses. And if self-driving makes rides much cheaper, that can significantly boost the size of the market. But that does not imply that they can't be successful and profitable businesses in a world without self-driving cars, which is the frequently-made claim in the top post.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#56

Post by st1x7 » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:19 PM UTC

mkoryak wrote: post #33

I don't understand the current state of self driving cars. First we have tesla which already has a self driving car. They were the first to build one and now everyone is playing catch up, or are they? Waymo has been building something for a really long time too but I have no idea how close they are to an actual product. Now there is this new company that gets a bunch of money to build something. It feels to me like t…

> First we have tesla which already has a self driving car

No, they don't. And it will take a while to get there.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#57

Post by sorenjan » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:19 PM UTC

Car companies doesn't make their own airbags, they buy them from Autoliv. They don't make their own brakes, they buy them from Brembo. They buy transmissions from ZF, tires from Michelin, ECUs from Bosch, etc. Why should car manufacturers develop their own self driving technology instead of letting others, like Bosch [1] or Veoneer [2], do that and buy it from them? Spread the investment over more cars, it makes sense.

[1] https://www.bosch-mobility-solutions.com/

[2] https://www.veoneer.com/

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#58

Post by dustinmoris » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:20 PM UTC

necubi wrote: post #17

thesimon wrote: post #6

Wasn't Uber's whole money losing strategy based on the vision that one day they'll use their self-driving cars to get the driving done for cheaper?

No, that was never the strategy, no matter how many times people on HN claimed it was. Both Uber and Lyft are aiming for profitability next year with human drivers. (Disclaimer, I work for Lyft but this has been said in public many, many times by both companies.)

Profitability maybe, but the obscene valuation was based on Uber having a self driving fleet one day, at least to my understanding. Many businesses are profitable and even much more profitable than what Uber might be in a few years time and yet they have never come close to any valuation such as Uber has seen.

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#59

Post by asdff » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:20 PM UTC

dboreham wrote: post #49

DonnyV wrote: post #25

I'd be shocked if Uber is around in the next 5 years.

Taxis have been around for thousands of years. Taxis that you get with a nice app seem like a thing that will always exist.

Taxis haven't been losing billions a quarter for thousands of years...

Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B

#60

Post by kfarr » Mon, Dec 07, 2020, 10:21 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #44

DonnyV wrote: post #25

I'd be shocked if Uber is around in the next 5 years.

I'm not sure why they wouldn't necessarily be around. They increasingly raise prices to sustainable levels and maintain some share of the gig economy taxi and delivery business with pretty good brand recognition. Becomes a much more mature, lower margin, steady-state business--presumably with a whole lot less SV engineering.

> much more mature, lower margin, steady-state business--presumably with a whole lot less SV engineering.

sure reminds me of a taxi company (without the fleet management of course)