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Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

forbes.com

51–60 of 88 posts

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#51
Thiel is a very smart guy. I have no doubt that if there is an opportunity to frame the world in a way that is the most advantageous and beneficial to him and his beliefs, he would take that opportunity.

Controlling the belief system is more powerful than controlling the resources, which is more powerful than controlling the machinations of a single company, which is more powerful than controlling the product itself.

Once that's understood, I think people are free to make their own judgement calls regarding this opinion of his.

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#52
post #48

I don't know why one would think so, 100 years after the spanish flu, it's barely a footnote that, let's be honest, most people that frequent this board hadn't heard of before covid-19. I think one would mark the previous century as either the great depression or wwii. I don't think in 100 years covid will have any lasting effect on the 25-45 year olds of the 2120 crowd (and we'll all be close to death). Besides they…

You don’t think the 20th century will also be remembered for landing on the moon, the birth of computing and penicillin?

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#53
post #52
post #48

I don't know why one would think so, 100 years after the spanish flu, it's barely a footnote that, let's be honest, most people that frequent this board hadn't heard of before covid-19. I think one would mark the previous century as either the great depression or wwii. I don't think in 100 years covid will have any lasting effect on the 25-45 year olds of the 2120 crowd (and we'll all be close to death). Besides they…

You don’t think the 20th century will also be remembered for landing on the moon, the birth of computing and penicillin?

Nah, you're probably right about those.

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry but no. "It began on January 1, 2001, and ends on December 31, 2100" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/21st_century

No. We define the centuries as the periods of 100 years beginning with the multiples of 100 in the year numbering system of the contextual calendar. The definition given by your reference is neither authoritative nor popular. If you follow the definitions advocated by Wikipedia and its collection of sources, you end up in an absurd state where the decades[0] span multiple centuries. It's absurd and does not reflect p…

Why are you counting from 0?

What do you mean by not authoriative in this context? This is just how the Gregorian calendar works.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anno_Domini#No_year_zero:_star...

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#55

The 21st century's "true start" was on New Year's Eve, 2000. Of course, I realize he's talking about defining events that delimit major changes between the previous century and its successor. And more specifically, major changes in what Thiel cares about, like financial markets, start-ups, monopolies, and money in general. But, really, we're only 20% into the century. Something else could easily eclipse Covid-19 even…

Even outside of that, 9/11 and the 2007 financial crisis aren’t trivial events that are just going to be skipped over. Especially depending on long term effects of the terrorism wars and how future people consider it’s relation to the growth of heavy surveillance, I could see it being considered the more important event. Of course we don’t know the long term effects Covid is going to have yet, we’re still in the midd…

Definitely agree 9/11 seemed to be the geopolitical event that really kicked off a different tone from the relative quiet of the Clinton years.

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#56

The 21st century's "true start" was on New Year's Eve, 2000. Of course, I realize he's talking about defining events that delimit major changes between the previous century and its successor. And more specifically, major changes in what Thiel cares about, like financial markets, start-ups, monopolies, and money in general. But, really, we're only 20% into the century. Something else could easily eclipse Covid-19 even…

Something else could easily eclipse Covid-19 even within the parameters of what matters to Thiel. Did WWI define the 20th century, or was it WWII? I think WWI demarcates the 1st of a series of really big, interrelated events. I suspect Covid-19 could be the 1st of a series of really big, interrelated events.

Historians generally refer to the "long 19th century" as encompassing the time from the French Revolution to WWI (although there is some room to discuss at what exact year you want to place the endpoints). Post-WWI periodization is hard to discuss because it's not necessarily clear until long after what events make more of a difference.

WWII isn't really a single war as much as it is a collection of several wars, be they wars of territorial expansion (e.g., Germany, USSR), ideological civil war (e.g., China), non-ideological civil war (e.g., France), or random local conflicts (e.g., Yugoslav coup) which are all occurring in the context of one another. In many places, it's often a three-way war, with all parties equally at odds with one another, instead of the simple Axis v. Allies it's usually presented as. Start including the full context of these conflicts into the timeframe of WWII, and you push its start date back arguably to 1931, only 8 years after the last cleanup war of WWI (the Russian Civil War).

Viewed from an international relations perspective, combining WWI and WWII into a single period of flux makes sense. WWI makes the death of great power influence, but the attempted resolution afterwards (League of Nations) was impotent and unable to have any major effect on the international crises that arose, unlike the great power conferences preceding WWI. Instead, the end of WWII ushers in the era of superpower relations, where essentially the USA and USSR drive international relations for the rest of the world.

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#57
I'm more curious what caused the wave of populism in the late 2010s. Was it really Russian propagandists on social media?

COVID will be gone in a year or 2, but the economic damage may cause things to be worse.

My best hope is a reform of the medical cartels, but that is wishful thinking in the face of a billion dollar lobbyist group.

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#58
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed printed 40 cents for every dollar that existed in March: https://www.dailyhandle.com/the-government-has-printed-40-ce... Expect all-time-highs in many things as 40% inflation goes trickles down, now that the velocity of money has stopped crashing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1V

Worth noting that the current long term trend is the velocity of money going down, no reason to expect it to turn back up necessarily. Definitely is a strong reason stocks are so overvalued though, yeah.

> no reason to expect it to turn back up necessarily.

Except that looking at the Fred graphs, now that the worst of Covid seems behind us, it's starting to.

Even if it doesn't go back to 2000 levels, it's certainly going to get to 2019 levels - meaning not just overvalued stocks but inflation too.

It's gonna hurt, but as it will also fix the student loan crisis, it could be overall a good thing!

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#59

The 21st century's "true start" was on New Year's Eve, 2000. Of course, I realize he's talking about defining events that delimit major changes between the previous century and its successor. And more specifically, major changes in what Thiel cares about, like financial markets, start-ups, monopolies, and money in general. But, really, we're only 20% into the century. Something else could easily eclipse Covid-19 even…

If there is one thing you can put good money on it's the UNSECO population data. Specifically, the population growth estimates.

The late great Hans Rosling of TED Talk fame had (has?) a fantastic website with a pretty good interface into such data: https://www.gapminder.org/

The key takeaway for me is that by 2099 Africa is going to get ~3B more people and India ~1B more. And they mostly going to be 'middle class' income earners (not poor anymore). Their consumer preferences are being made as we speak (Coke v Pepsi, Chevy v Ford, etc).

The Indian Ocean is going to be as big a trade hub as the Atlantic was and the Pacific is today. The time is ripe to invest in eastern Africa.

Re: Peter Thiel Says Covid Marks 21st Century’s True Start

#60
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already let us fly with numerous lithium fire hazards per person. All you need is something like a metal barreled ink pen to pierce the battery pack. Heck, what protection is there from me getting some volume of mercury on board? A pressurized aluminum airframe would not take kindly to spilling any amount of that.

Destroying the aircraft in mid air isn't really the threat any more, though. The threat is using the airplane and its occupants as unwilling kamikaze weapons as in 9/11, and with the armored doors on the flight deck now it's unlikely the aircrew will allow the aircraft to be hijacked no matter what you bring on board. There's a reason the flight attendants stand in front of the door when the pilots have to use the wa…

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