Live data from Hacker News

Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

colorado.edu

51–60 of 63 posts

Re: Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

#51
post #3

Wasn't this the White House strategy? They were doing daily rapid antigen tests, and have had several outbreaks.

The problem with testing is that a negative test today does not prevent you from catching the virus tomorrow. All you have to do is be in contact with someone who has it.

So you can't just test. You also need to avoid contact with other people, unless they have also tested negative. The White House clearly was not doing that. Even if they had, the tests are not totally reliable.

Given the number of people who come and go from the White House on a regular basis, it's kind of a surprise they didn't have an outbreak earlier than they did.

Re: Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

#52
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cornell is testing ~everyone once a week. After an initial small flurry of cases, they've picked off 1-2 cases a day before they have a chance to enter the broader populace. https://covid.cornell.edu/testing/dashboard/ Their case-positivity rate is ~100x lower than many places in the United States.

The problem with testing once a week is there are four more days you can be positive on. Also, by the time you get your test results, you have been positive and spreading. I get tested on Monday mornings, got a call Thursday night telling me not to come in on Friday. What good did that do?

It does a lot of good. Every little intervention really helps, even if it's seems far from perfect.

It's because the system as a whole is balanced on a critical threshold. It's like water boils at 101°C and condenses at 99°C.

The point is to reduce R below 1. When R > 1 the disease gets almost everywhere eventually. When R Currently R is above 1, but it's not a lot above 1. (We're lucky. There are other diseases where it's much higher.)

So even if you have been spreading on those 4 days, you are not spreading from days 5 onwards. That might be 10 days less spreading.

You are not giving it to large numbers of people in those 4 days either. As a spreader, you're adding risk to others, but only 1 or 2 will get it directly from you probably.

When you isolate on day 5, that's a reduction in the amount of spreading and it reduces R. When your traces also isolate from your day 5, that's a further reduction in the amount of spreading and R. That's recursive, if their traces also isolate, it's a further reduction, etc.

Altogether, if everyone follows these changes, there's a reasonable prospect of R falling below 1 enough for the disease to fade out. Because it's close enough to 1 already, that behaviour can make a significant difference.

In practice people do not comply, and they lie sometimes (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55011790). So R does not fall as effectively as it would if there was high compliance. But every bit of compliance helps reduce R.

When R is consistently It looks unlikely this will happen until we have widespread vaccination in some countries (USA is one of the leading examples), but the more we reduce R meanwhile, the fewer people will die or get long covid in the end. And fewer here means in the millions.

Re: Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

#53
post #41
post #6

I would love for this whole thing to end as much as anyone, but I don't see how this gets anything back to normal. In January of this year, there were a negligible amount of people in the US with Covid. Let's say now in November everyone gets tested every day, and you have an unbelievable compliance for self quarantining on positive results. It would never happen, but pretend it's 99.9% of people following the rules…

> or from it running its course to be done with this. A nitpick, but it deals with a pervasive idea that should be updated. The virus will most likely never "run its course" to give us collective immunity without technological intervention. That's because herd immunity is only known to have ever occurred as a result of deliberate vaccination, and even then it disappears in areas where vaccination stops. It has never…

This is interesting, and I hadn't heard this about herd immunity before. However, I kind of imagine that at some point in history a lot of our ancestors died from things we don't even think of as more than nuisances now.

Re: Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

#54
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're missing is that a rapid test like this can be used as an entry check at restaurants and other public venues, allowing them to go back into business. Even if the vaccines turn out not to work for some reason, we can have our economy back, while limiting spread of the virus. It's not so much about getting people to fully self-quarantine, although that would be nice, as about eliminating super-spreader event…

I didn't see the turn around time in the article. Just something about "less sensitive test with results today". I think it's optimistic to assume this could be used as an entry check for a restaurant.

I have read elsewhere about researchers at least trying to develop 15-minute tests. Not sure what the status of their work is, but some think it's possible -- and they're specifically targeting entry checks.

Re: Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

#55
post #11
post #6

I would love for this whole thing to end as much as anyone, but I don't see how this gets anything back to normal. In January of this year, there were a negligible amount of people in the US with Covid. Let's say now in November everyone gets tested every day, and you have an unbelievable compliance for self quarantining on positive results. It would never happen, but pretend it's 99.9% of people following the rules…

You need to get positives down to zero for two weeks before you declare success. Daily testing, with quarantine of any positives and then contact tracing two levels (everyone you contacted and then their contacts could get to zero quickly. But the quarantine step is required for every one to pull that off. Of course this works out easy in a post. Good luck implementing it in real life. People violate quarantine if th…

No, that's exactly my point. Even if it went according to your best possible plan, all you do is reset it back to Jan 2019.

Or did you mean we're all going to do daily testing and contact tracing forever?

Re: Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

#56
post #8
post #3

Wasn't this the White House strategy? They were doing daily rapid antigen tests, and have had several outbreaks.

No, the White House strategy was to ridicule anyone who wore a mask. To make life miserable for you at work if you considered the virus to be a risk. The White House strategy was based on convincing people there that the virus was fake. Not anything to do with rapid daily antigen test. From what I read, that wasn't an enforced thing anyway. Sounds like people there were also just not getting the tests at all.

I read an article the other day about a nurse with Covid patients who refused to believe they had Covid at all, because they're convinced it's a hoax.

The damage Trump has done is incalculable.

Re: Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

#57
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't see the turn around time in the article. Just something about "less sensitive test with results today". I think it's optimistic to assume this could be used as an entry check for a restaurant.

I have read elsewhere about researchers at least trying to develop 15-minute tests. Not sure what the status of their work is, but some think it's possible -- and they're specifically targeting entry checks.

Well, that'd be fast enough for some venues. I'm still skeptical it'd work in practice.

Re: Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And now UK is a complete mess heading into winter and Australia has effective elimination. Of course it might help that Australia is actually heading into summer .

And it has been eliminated before the summer months. Also in many places in Australia it was eliminated well before winter.

I am in the part of Australia that didn't eliminate it well before winter. But with 112 days of lock-down _during_ winter we certainly had the numbers come down dramatically and have had twenty-three days so far of no new infections or deaths.

From tomorrow we no longer have to wear masks outside unless it gets crowded such that you cannot maintain physical distancing!

Re: Frequent, rapid testing could turn national Covid-19 tide within weeks

#60
post #55
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to get positives down to zero for two weeks before you declare success. Daily testing, with quarantine of any positives and then contact tracing two levels (everyone you contacted and then their contacts could get to zero quickly. But the quarantine step is required for every one to pull that off. Of course this works out easy in a post. Good luck implementing it in real life. People violate quarantine if th…

No, that's exactly my point. Even if it went according to your best possible plan, all you do is reset it back to Jan 2019. Or did you mean we're all going to do daily testing and contact tracing forever?

I mean daily testing until we have two weeks of zero cases. Worldwide (or mandatory two weeks isolated quarantine at customs). This is what new Zealand did, so it is possible, but it is logically very hard for anyone not an isolated island.
Post reply on HN