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Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

latimes.com

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Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#51

Post by kspacewalk2 »

atty wrote: post #20

What are HNers planning to do for the holidays? We’re seriously considering not seeing anyone, not even parents, even though my SO has had COVID already (she works at a hospital and contracted it from COVID patients). Stories like this are the main reason. Even if no one at the party gets very ill, the chance of further spreading it to others seriously scares me.

Staying the f away from elderly in-laws with high-risk health conditions (diabetes, COPD). Definitely continuing that through Christmas. They are not fans of that decision though, and guilt-trip us on every FaceTime chat.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#52

Post by jhayward »

ceejayoz wrote: post #13
WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I would be okay with someone being tried for murder over this shit. Isn't the death penalty supposed to be a deterrence?

It's very clearly not murder; that'd set really bad precedents. You might be able to pull off something like involuntary manslaughter, but I tend to doubt it.

It would fall under behavior matching something like likely to cause serious injury or death with reckless disregard or depraved indifference to the safety of others, which in most states would be straight manslaughter or low-degree murder.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#53

Post by ceejayoz »

vemv wrote: post #37

Would transmission have been the same if the wedding happened in a 100% outdoor setting? (the article explicitly mentions this was at least in part in an indoor setting) We have enough evidence to teach people that the very least they can do is paying attention to air flow. Somehow we aren't.

Outdoors would likely have been substantially safer, yes.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-summer-of-covid-...

> And if there is one thing we can definitively state, it’s that this virus is much, much less likely to spread outdoors than in. For example, in a study of 7,324 Chinese case reports, only two — part of the same transmission event — could be linked to outdoor settings. A database of more than 20,000 cases (including the 7,324 Chinese cases) found 461 that were associated with transmission in completely outdoor environments — predominantly crowded events like markets and rallies. Overall, only 6 percent of all the cases in that database were linked to events that were either totally or partially outdoors. The rest were tied to indoor events.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#54

Post by goalieca »

There are “high-risk” people in care homes who want to visit their relatives for the holidays. To call these people selfish is way off the mark. Human beings are more than a simple statistic to optimize for political benefit. Perhaps it’s the politicians and others who are being selfish by imposing their will and desires.

Viewpoints on liberty and consent aside, there doesn’t seem to be much of a strategy or timeline yet and it’s time we do a cost/benefit analysis that considers all costs and complications beyond covid.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#55

Post by presentation »

ceejayoz wrote: post #13
WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I would be okay with someone being tried for murder over this shit. Isn't the death penalty supposed to be a deterrence?

It's very clearly not murder; that'd set really bad precedents. You might be able to pull off something like involuntary manslaughter, but I tend to doubt it.

Also empirically speaking isn’t the death penalty not actually shown to be a great deterrent? [1]

[1] first google result I found. https://www.amnestyusa.org/issues/death-penalty/death-penalt...

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#56

Post by vharuck »

atty wrote: post #20

What are HNers planning to do for the holidays? We’re seriously considering not seeing anyone, not even parents, even though my SO has had COVID already (she works at a hospital and contracted it from COVID patients). Stories like this are the main reason. Even if no one at the party gets very ill, the chance of further spreading it to others seriously scares me.

Skipping the big family Thanksgiving events. Might do a small thing with my parents and sister, but that gets less appealing as the rates climb.

Flying to Florida for a wedding in December, which I'm very unhappy with. But my wife's a bridesmaid, the bride's her best friend she hasn't seen for years, and the bride cut down on guests. She's doing a webcast for most family and friends. I wish they'd just delay it.

No Christmas gatherings.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#57

Post by sp332 »

NotTheDr01ds wrote: post #41

Isn't the long-term care facility link a little implausible? 4 days seems like a bit short for the child to be infected, incubate to the point of being contagious, pass it to the parent, then incubate again to the parent being symptomatic. Regardless, the wedding and reception behavior was entirely irresponsible. But the link between it and the long-term care cases seems tenuous, at best.

*tenuous

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#58

Post by Pfhreak »

flavor8 wrote: post #17

It's a little hugged to death at the moment, but https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ is a useful tool to show relatives who are thinking about social gatherings for the holidays.

Just a reminder, that tool likely underestimates the risk of covid. Seroprevalence data shows undercounting of up to 24 times (rather than the 5 or 10 this tool shows.)

Also, this tool assumes you are only seeing people from your county.

And humans are terrible at assessing compound risk. If the tool shows a 5% risk from a gathering, people will likely attend multiple events. ("Oh, it's only 5% to go to Thanksgiving. And 5% to go to Friendsgiving. etc.") When you consider multiple events, risk doesn't stay constant.

So while that tool is interesting, don't look at it as a mechanism to say, "Yeah, it's probably ok to have a gathering."

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#60

Post by ptero »

ceejayoz wrote: post #13
WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I would be okay with someone being tried for murder over this shit. Isn't the death penalty supposed to be a deterrence?

It's very clearly not murder; that'd set really bad precedents. You might be able to pull off something like involuntary manslaughter, but I tend to doubt it.

And if such persecution flies (which I doubt and really hope it does not), do not forget sweeping in as suspects for involuntary manslaugter those folks who, in the years past, came to work sick. Flu complications are deadly and kill many people, too.
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