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Apple learned automation can't match human skill

appleinsider.com

51–59 of 59 posts

Re: Apple learned automation can't match human skill

#51

> How Apple learned automation can't match human skill Super generic title. Has it replaced all its software with humans?

That doesn't follow from the title as it stands. Automation not "matching" human skill means that automation cannot cover 100% of operations performed by humans, but it doesn't say what the percentage actually is. Could be 0% (like your rhetorical hyperbole insinuates), could be 99.999% (not yet probably), could be 80% (more likely).

Re: Apple learned automation can't match human skill

#52
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Safety regulations are what prevent more trains from running in many European places. Limiting rail to automated-only trains would allow them to run right up next to each other without the huge gaps between them that exists right now. You could move thousands more people than automated cars could manage for a fraction of the cost.

Is it really? I thought you generally can scale trains by adding more wagons.

Yes, there's a safety limit to how close trains can be.

Sure you can make trains bigger but many times trains are already the necessary size for their time windows, destinations, etc.

Also simply making bigger trains puts more control into the hands of a few companies. If there's going to be more competition driving prices down and offering more options, then there needs to be smaller margins in safety controls to make room for more competition.

Re: Apple learned automation can't match human skill

#53
post #39
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but it’s much more politically convenient for the incompetents in charge to blame the dumb machines than themselves for their multi-million $$$$ project collapsing on its arse. Steve Jobs would’ve flayed the lot of them till he got exactly what he wanted. Cook’s mediocrity simply shrugs and rolls on, with nothing learned at all. #PerfectlyOiledCuckooClock

Have you ever worked in manufacturing?

Pre-press. Where in under a decade I figured out from scratch how to automate packaging artwork production successfully: by building the automation for, and putting it into the hands of, the artworkers themselves. i.e. The folks on the ground who do the actual work, and understand what that work entails.

Alas (for me), scaling that success to a $1Tn global packaging industry has proved way harder, in significant part due to the penny-pinching bean counters and talentless middle-management hacks: useless people who won’t spend a penny or commit to change when they can pay themselves the same salary for never taking a single risk or decision at all.

So what are the chances that Cook’s Apple filled a room with highly-educated experts and told them to invent a grand impressive automation solution without ever sitting with all those “little people” who make the stuff by hand in order to learn their jobs from them? From what I’ve seen of “real” applications development, and the gall of major industry vendors who rake in millions selling big-iron “solutions” that simply don’t work out on the shop floor beyond their glossy canned C-suite demos, I’d wager that’s the norm.

Ah well, now I know how Papert must’ve felt. Back t’drawing board…

Re: Apple learned automation can't match human skill

#54
post #37

Elon Musk also found out something like that I guess https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/13/elon-musk-says-humans-are-...

What bothers me is that nobody realizes you can only automate simple tasks. The more complex the task, the larger the back end is to support the single device to perform the task. Sooner or later you end up with a single specific automating pieces that are costing you far more than had you just hired someone for 35k with ok benefits.

Re: Apple learned automation can't match human skill

#55
post #3

I find this to be relevant to the self driving problem - Apple/Foxconn could not detect when things had gone wrong on the automation line and stop it, let alone have the line's robots fix it. However, we expect a self driving car to detect when it encounters a novel situation on the road? And it surely will. If they could not detect it in the confines of a highly controlled factory assembly line (not manufacturing bu…

Those are two pretty different domains. In manufacturing automation, some of the things that are hard include gripping objects, handling fluids and pastes, and adapting to design changes. For self driving cars, the controls are pretty similar, even across car models. Gas, brakes, and steering. It doesn't happen that a supplier ran out of engines and a decision is made to replace the car's propulsion by jet engines, t…

My comment was not about robotics but about detecting when things had gone wrong. Again, the manufacturing lines are in a very controlled environment - loaded with sensors, compute power, perfect lighting, humidity etc. Compare that to the noisy world of roads, traffic, weather and humans.

Re: Apple learned automation can't match human skill

#56
post #45
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are two pretty different domains. In manufacturing automation, some of the things that are hard include gripping objects, handling fluids and pastes, and adapting to design changes. For self driving cars, the controls are pretty similar, even across car models. Gas, brakes, and steering. It doesn't happen that a supplier ran out of engines and a decision is made to replace the car's propulsion by jet engines, t…

Also the R&D budget for self-driving cars is bottomless. There's a limit to the R&D budget for assembling THIS year's iphone, above which it's just better to use humans.

Apple manufacturing budget >> Self driving car r&d budget.

Re: Apple learned automation can't match human skill

#57

It seems to me that Apple Silicon, will eventually start with “Device on Chip” type solutions (i.e. there will no longer be a motherboard). Including vertically integrating OLED construction into the wafer as well. Similarly, vertically integrating battery construction and housing into the device body, like TSLAs battery day announcement. Between these integrations, I’m not sure there will be much remaining to automa…

whatever you are saying, that they will make, needs to be manufacture as well. Its not like there is iphone printer available on aliexpress.

Combining logic chips into the same wafer such that no motherboard is needed is just a matter of wafer size, owning/experience with the IP, and needing connectors for IO like speakers, mic, camera, etc. All trivial to do if you're willing to take on the costs of (or reduce) poor yield and less repair-ability. This is the current trend even for chips in AWS like Graviton.

Silicon Substrate for OLED: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/blinkin-fast-oled-ma...

Details of TSLA's push to make batteries part of the device body. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2020/09/22/tesla-re...

Re: Apple learned automation can't match human skill

#58
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Safety regulations are what prevent more trains from running in many European places. Limiting rail to automated-only trains would allow them to run right up next to each other without the huge gaps between them that exists right now. You could move thousands more people than automated cars could manage for a fraction of the cost.

Is it really? I thought you generally can scale trains by adding more wagons.

That works for goods, not so much for people.

2 examples:

1) You can't make the train longer than the station (think of a subway station)

2) I don't need 300 more seats on the 6:30 AM train, I'd like to sleep 30 minutes more and have an option at 7:00 too. The existing 7:30 train arrives too late for my needs.

Re: Apple learned automation can't match human skill

#59

> How Apple learned automation can't match human skill Super generic title. Has it replaced all its software with humans?

That doesn't follow from the title as it stands. Automation not "matching" human skill means that automation cannot cover 100% of operations performed by humans, but it doesn't say what the percentage actually is. Could be 0% (like your rhetorical hyperbole insinuates), could be 99.999% (not yet probably), could be 80% (more likely).

It's not my rhetorical hyperbole. It's in the article title, which doesn't leave any room for the millions of tasks at which automation far exceeds human skill. That would have been "Apple learned automation can't always match human skill".
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