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Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

daniel-suarez.com

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Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#51

I enjoyed Delta-V, but Daemon and Freedom IMO were much more entertaining

I appreciated the science that went into Delta-V but I just couldn't enjoy the book itself. Random things happening that provide continual doses of danger and excitement I can deal with. But main characters making engineering decisions that seem designed to provide that less so. And secondary characters whose only motivation I could figure out was to keep up that same danger and excitement just ended up making the book unenjoyable for me.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#52
post #47
post #14

Not related to the novel, but what is the current biggest technological challenge to asteroid mining?

Casey Handmer has a great blog taking hard analysis of what activities will be practical in space. He argues there is no real reason for asteroid mining to bring resources back to earth. So the challenge is to identify a large market for resources to be used in space. https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2019/08/27/there-are-no-k...

So, the current price to bring something from space to Earth is for a capsule that keeps the material in a comfortable Earth-like atmosphere with minimal heating and g forces on the way down the way humans like it. If you instead have an object that doesn't need to breath and doesn't mind pulling 1000s of gs then things are much simpler, just take a reasonably sized sphere of your platinum ore, wrap it in some cheaper ablatable material, and drop it onto a desert then take it out of the small crater. Which isn't to say I actually think that asteroid mining for use on Earth is viable, just that the numbers used in that article are way too pessimistic.

In the short orbital communication is a >$100 billion a year industry and people are already looking at ways to manufacture larger antennas than can fit in rocket fairings in space for better signals. Even modest amounts of metal from an asteroid would be very valuable in orbit there since your competing with material that has to be brought up from Earth. Even bags of loose regolith could be very useful as radiation and meteorite protection.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#53
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it depends on what your goal is. If it's just to bring back high-value metals to Earth, then that's probably the least complicated because the mass you have to move is low. I don't know the logistics of, say, gold mining in space, but you might not even bother with any on-site processing. Just grab a rock with a big gold vein and haul it back. That presupposes you know how to find such a rock. If your goal is…

> Just grab a rock with a big gold vein and haul it back. That's not how it works. Simply put, most small asteroids are undifferentiated. Meaning, they all have roughly similar mix of materials that depend mostly on the distance to the sun of where they formed. Unlike on earth, since they formed they have never been molten or been subject to erosion and transport by weather and water, which concentrates like material…

Probably we're only going to be mining small Earth crossing asteroid that are close to Earth intercept in delta-v terms to start with.

Have you seen the reports on the new data coming out of the mission orbiting Bennu a few days ago? It's looking like small asteroids might be a bit less undifferentiated than we thought those the story isn't changing by that much.

https://www.space.com/asteroid-bennu-formation-history-osiri...

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#54
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it depends on what your goal is. If it's just to bring back high-value metals to Earth, then that's probably the least complicated because the mass you have to move is low. I don't know the logistics of, say, gold mining in space, but you might not even bother with any on-site processing. Just grab a rock with a big gold vein and haul it back. That presupposes you know how to find such a rock. If your goal is…

> Just grab a rock with a big gold vein and haul it back. That's not how it works. Simply put, most small asteroids are undifferentiated. Meaning, they all have roughly similar mix of materials that depend mostly on the distance to the sun of where they formed. Unlike on earth, since they formed they have never been molten or been subject to erosion and transport by weather and water, which concentrates like material…

Another problem with bringing big rocks back from space, is that you’d probably have a bunch of people trying to stop you either with words or force. Big rocks coming to earth could mean the end of life on earth with the smallest of mistakes or accidents.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#55
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some sense we have done it (taken a sample, returned to earth). The question is, would it be valuable to do so at scale? If we had a good reason to mine an asteroid, knew we could get to said asteroid, and the asteroid has a composition we predicted. It’s probably possible to mine it to some extent. However, in terms of economics... today, we haven’t proven we can mine an asteroid in a meaningful way. Assuming we…

Mining an asteroid far away and then spend fuel to shuttle material from it to GEO or Moon seems rather uneconomical. I would suggest finding a small enough (a few dozen kilotons) space rock made of a valuable / precious metal, and brought to it a large solar array and an ion gun. Metals make good ion gun fuel. Slowing the asteroid down to fall to an elliptic orbit around Earth, and then righting the orbit to put it…

The problem is, a single accident or mistake can put the entire earth’s population at risk. It seems highly unlikely we’d bring big rocks back to earth.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the estimated values of ores in a decent asteroid? I think it's technology and up front financing. Well, and there are probably space treaties that are problematic. I'd drop an ion drive on the asteroid and nudge it towards the earth (but not AT it), and once it's in a stable near orbit, figure out what to do with a much faster communication loop with remotes/robots: process in orbit, drop parts down to…

When the Spanish extracted all the silver and gold they could from South America, it caused a dramatic reduction in the value of silver and gold in Europe. I.e. dropping a huge chunk of rare Earths onto Earth will make them not-so-rare and prices will collapse.

Only if you don't have a monopoly...

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#57
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some sense we have done it (taken a sample, returned to earth). The question is, would it be valuable to do so at scale? If we had a good reason to mine an asteroid, knew we could get to said asteroid, and the asteroid has a composition we predicted. It’s probably possible to mine it to some extent. However, in terms of economics... today, we haven’t proven we can mine an asteroid in a meaningful way. Assuming we…

It’s probably just a coincidence, but I find it interesting that one of Elon Musk’s companies (Tesla) has a huge demand for nickel and another one of Elon Musk’s companies (SpaceX) won a contract with NASA to explore 16 Psyche, an asteroid essentially made of nickel, and is working on a completely reusable rocket...

Nickel is so common and cheap it is unlikely to be profitable to ship it to Earth. It's more likely that nickel and iron would be used as construction materials in space, to make satellites and stations cheaper by reducing the launch mass required.

The profitable stuff to ship to Earth would be platinum-group metals, which have values in the tens of thousands of dollars per kilogram. But those require much more capital investment, as you need to get to farther-off asteroids and do more intensive in-space refining.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some sense we have done it (taken a sample, returned to earth). The question is, would it be valuable to do so at scale? If we had a good reason to mine an asteroid, knew we could get to said asteroid, and the asteroid has a composition we predicted. It’s probably possible to mine it to some extent. However, in terms of economics... today, we haven’t proven we can mine an asteroid in a meaningful way. Assuming we…

One theory in favor of space mining is that (and I personally believe this is wishful thinking) one asteroid might have a lot of titanium in it that would be worth trillions (and probably crash the titanium market). But again, personally I think that's wishful thinking to try and get investors to push money into a space mining company. Based on nothing whatsoever, I believe most asteroids will be made out of fairly w…

Titanium ore is cheap, and is produced at a large enough scale the market wouldn't crash. The expensive metals are platinum-group metals (iridium, osmium, rhenium, &c), which go for tens of thousands of dollars per kilo.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the estimated values of ores in a decent asteroid? I think it's technology and up front financing. Well, and there are probably space treaties that are problematic. I'd drop an ion drive on the asteroid and nudge it towards the earth (but not AT it), and once it's in a stable near orbit, figure out what to do with a much faster communication loop with remotes/robots: process in orbit, drop parts down to…

Yes I have seen the "estimated values" of asteroids. They're not that meaningful as they're only estimates of reserves with no regard for production. Prices of platinum group metals are what they are because known reserves are limited and production even more limited. If you suddenly increase the supply of PGMs they're now much less valuable and their price drops. Extra supply doesn't automatically create extra deman…

Demand and supply. Much like DeBeers is stock piling low grade dimonds to not ruin market prices.

Re: Delta-V: Designing the Asteroid Mining Ship 'Konstantin'

#60
post #6

I enjoyed Delta-V, but Daemon and Freedom IMO were much more entertaining

Daemon and Freedom are top class hard scifi. The plot hinges on technical detail that is both completely plausible and a natural extension of existing information technology. It's obvious that Suarez really understands what he's talking about in a deep way. I'd say "Daemon" is top twenty for best hard scifi books. http://superkuh.com/hardscifi.txt Delta-v is good scifi and I love this kind of background detail.

I've recently been re-reading Daemon, and I find that it's very dated to the Windows XP era. As for Freedom(TM), I think it goes too far with its extrapolations from then-current technology. To name just one example, speech recognition and human-sounding speech synthesis were nowhere near as good as they were portrayed in that book.
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