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Re: Ice

#51

Post by ncmncm »

ncmncm wrote: post #24
robbiep wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly I was reading about this this morning whilst reviewing my old crackpot hero Graham Hancock (reading fingerprints of the gods at a young age had me fascinated about this mythical ancient civilisation for which exceptional claims are made but very little evidence). This is a great rebuttal of the whole YDIH. Specifically regarding the possibility of air bursts, (0) says this: The firestorm began in 2007 w…

Graham Hancock has some wacky ideas, but is always (and unusually) careful to distinguish fact from speculation. (And his wife's photos are excellent.) It is a circular argument that extinctions coincide with arrival of humans: that humans arrived at that time is an assumption, and one that is losing credibility. Anyway, as noted, you also need to explain why humans didn't wipe out African megafauna (no, wariness doe…

It is also telling that we find certain bolides to have an osmium isotope ratio in the range they consider a problem--and they know about those.

Re: Ice

#52

Post by ncmncm »

sradman wrote: post #30

> ... a gradual and linear melting rate is not what we should expect to see going forward. This article seems to combine the lost civilization pseudo-science of Randall Carlson and Graham Hancock with the myopia of catastrophic climate change alarmists that ignore paleoclimate evidence. This evidence is captured in the LR04 Benthic Stack data and is fully supported by ice core and other data sources. Modelling the fl…

Except nobody knows what actually caused the beginning or ending of an ice age.

It is always too easy to think you must know what is relevant, after learning what seems like a lot.

Re: Ice

#53

Post by ncmncm »

wffurr wrote: post #38

The author seems to think we are "safe" from impact events, but that seems awfully glib and based more on pop culture takes like movies than facts. Our track record for noticing near Earth objects is pretty poor and largely due to amateur astronomers. I don't think there is any consensus on what sort of space mission we could mount to divert one either. We are a long way from "planetary defenses have never been stron…

It is technically true that planetary defenses have never been stronger. It is exactly, equally true that they have never been weaker. 0<=0<=0

Re: Ice

#54

Post by sradman »

ncmncm wrote: post #52
sradman wrote: post #30

> ... a gradual and linear melting rate is not what we should expect to see going forward. This article seems to combine the lost civilization pseudo-science of Randall Carlson and Graham Hancock with the myopia of catastrophic climate change alarmists that ignore paleoclimate evidence. This evidence is captured in the LR04 Benthic Stack data and is fully supported by ice core and other data sources. Modelling the fl…

Except nobody knows what actually caused the beginning or ending of an ice age. It is always too easy to think you must know what is relevant, after learning what seems like a lot.

The Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) [1] are based on the empirically derived LR04 Benthic Stack. We don't (yet) know how to model the termination triggers nor the precise magnitude of each glacial cycle but what this means in practice is that we don't understand why the system transitioned from 41 kyr cycles to 100 kyr cycles; the regular glacial cycles themselves are very real.

The "nobody knows" claim applies no more to the LR04/MIS evidence than it does to tectonic plate evidence. This is well established science not an arena to practice Hayekian "fatal conceit" dismissals.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_isotope_stage

Re: Ice

#55

Post by Ccecil »

I live on the edge of this area. Coeur d'Alene, ID is at the mid upper right in that map...Spokane/Cd'A are the cities you can see by the lakes. Cd'A is at the bottom of what is known as the Purcell trench.

It is very clear if you look at the area that this flood happened suddenly. Lots of exposed rimrock, the Rathdrum aquifer is massive and everything out here is riddled with glacial tumbled granite. Lake Pend Orielle is one of the deepest in the nation and at the North side is where the Clark fork "dam" was from the ice. When you look at the mountains where the river comes through they are fairly tall but there is a very noticeable "v" where the river comes through.[1] I would be more willing to believe something destabilized the mountain that was supporting the ice (earthquake? We do get them here).

Geologically this event happened not that long ago. Scars are clearly visible pretty much in all of the area if you look close. There is some discussion as well that there are stories of this event in various oral histories of the native people but I think it is still being studied.

Sidenote: Lake Pend Orielle was where Farragut naval base was...totally landlocked naval base where they still test sonar to this day. [2] Rumor has it they used to collapse subs in the lake due to how deep it was...but I am not sure how factual that is.

[1] http://hugefloods.com/Ice-Age-Floods-2.html Pic here labeled "Clark fork river" shows what I mean...but small picture [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farragut_Naval_Training_Statio...

Re: Ice

#56

Post by ncmncm »

sradman wrote: post #54
ncmncm wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except nobody knows what actually caused the beginning or ending of an ice age. It is always too easy to think you must know what is relevant, after learning what seems like a lot.

The Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) [1] are based on the empirically derived LR04 Benthic Stack. We don't (yet) know how to model the termination triggers nor the precise magnitude of each glacial cycle but what this means in practice is that we don't understand why the system transitioned from 41 kyr cycles to 100 kyr cycles; the regular glacial cycles themselves are very real. The "nobody knows" claim applies no more t…

"Nobody knows what makes the sun rise."

"We have excellent records of its reliable daily rise, going back centuries."

But sunrise is caused by rotation of a spheroid planet, in no way implied by those records.

Re: Ice

#57

Post by mavhc »

seibelj wrote: post #10
tashi wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is this an important argument to have now? As long as millions of voters believe the climate isn't changing or don't understand what kind of damage it's going to do, it seems like focusing on these details just adds to the noise.

No, because the organized environmental movement is convincing us that putting solar panels on our roofs and driving electric cars are somehow going to save the planet, when they won’t even make a tiny dent! Yet we are all expected to pay out the ass in tax rebates to subsidize these boondoggles. I support rational and efficient energy policies, but our current system is bonkers! For example I got a 25% tax rebate re…

It will make a tiny dent, and did you think this wasn't going to be expensive?
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