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What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

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Re: What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are definitely studies criticizing ML publications similarly. As a kind of statistics (but often without the rigor), screwups make ML methods appear better than they really are. Hence the literature is packed with screwups. Other CS subfields that get a lot of criticism are "network science" and bioinformatics.

I've been playing with some ML lately. I'm sure some of this is because I only have a high level understanding of what I'm doing, but it really feels like throwing things at the problem and see what sticks and is fast. Add features, remove features, try different network architectures, different activation functions, etc. I think the best understood thing might be overfitting, which is oddly reassuring.

> ...throwing things at the problem and see what sticks and is fast.

That generally isn't enough to get published nowadays though, at least in a simple sense (in a broader sense that process might describe all research, of course). To get published requires some deeper demonstration of a new kind of method that not only works, but is superior to all that preceded it in some important way. In other words you show your new method compared to other methods, where yours must be better. Obviously, bad research here can show a supposed advantage by either doing a unfair job applying competing methods, or overfitting their new methods. Or both. As I understand it, the first one is quite common: comparing a poorly-tuned old method to a carefully-tuned new method.

Re: What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

#52

Of malice vs stupidity, I'm pretty certain it's stupidity. Or more precisely, self-delusion. The story of Millikan's oil drop experiment replications and also James Randi's (and CSICOP's) battle with pseudo-scientists convince me of this.

There's probably a mix of both. At some point, most people probably realize that there's something fundamentally wrong - but by then, they're a few decades in and too much of their career and personal life depends on it being true, so openly changing course is very daunting. When your identity and career depends on something wrong being considered true, you have no incentive to point out problems, and every incentive to mislead.

Re: What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

#53
post #10
post #4

> Even if all the statistical, p-hacking, publication bias, etc. issues were fixed, we'd still be left with a ton of ad-hoc hypotheses based, at best, on (WEIRD) folk intuitions. This is the quiet part which most social scientists, particularly psychologists, don't want to discuss or admit: WEIRD [0] selection bias massively distorts which effects are inherent to humans and which are socially learned. You'll hear peo…

The people who use Hanlon's razor to explain away malice are both incompetent and malicious. Only someone who is an idiot would ever think to use 'I'm very stupid' as an excuse or explanation why they did something very damaging. If you are smart enough to realize you are incompetent after the fact you were smart enough to realize it before the fact, and that means you were malicious in not recusing yourself.

Imho we also tend to underestimate the impact of cognitive biases on our own views and behaviors. We are often largely unaware of this. In this case, I find that Hanlon's razor is to simple with the black and white distinction of incompetence and malice. Biases often fall in neither category.

People who view themself as rational / technical might be even more prone to not realizing how much they are affected by this? If your self-image is that you are very rational person (more rational than others), you might be especially prone to denying and therefore not being aware of biases.

Re: What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

#54
post #3

This guy overstates his case somewhat. Consider: "If the original study says an intervention raises math scores by .5 standard deviations and the replication finds that the effect is .2 standard deviations (though still significant), that is considered a success that vindicates the original study!" Why the exclamation point here? The replication study isn't magically more accurate than the original study. If the orig…

Actually there is a reason to believe the replication over the original, or vice versa. There's vastly different selection effects occuring for original Vs replication which impact statistical test size

Re: What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

#55
post #3

This guy overstates his case somewhat. Consider: "If the original study says an intervention raises math scores by .5 standard deviations and the replication finds that the effect is .2 standard deviations (though still significant), that is considered a success that vindicates the original study!" Why the exclamation point here? The replication study isn't magically more accurate than the original study. If the orig…

They reported two facts, statistical significance and effect size, one of which was not replicated. Of course this doesn't prove anything definitively, but it still arouses suspicion. As for whether it's exclamation-point-worthy, at worst it depends. For example, 0.5 standard deviation improvement in math scores might normally require a ton more expensive effort or even have been thought previously impossible, while a 0.2 was easy and not publication-worthy.

Re: What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

#57

> Publishing your own weak papers is one thing, but citing other people's weak papers? This seemed implausible... This is practically required by reviewers and editors. If you wade into a topic area, you need to review the field and explain where you fit in, even though you know full well many of those key citations are garbage. You basically need to pay homage to the "ground breakers" who claimed that turf first, ev…

You basically need to pay homage to the "ground breakers" who claimed that turf first, even if they did it via fraud.

Even referring to it as “science” is fraudulent. Testable theories and repeatable outcomes, anyone? Time this whole field was defunded.

Re: What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

#58
Most people just don't have a clue about what they are doing and have no passion for their research whatsoever. When you have money as the main driver for science, this kind of stuff is exactly what you should expect. There's homeless and crackheads etc at a 3km radius from the majority of social sciences schools around the world. It's a complete a failure and scam. Science development is analog to social development and nothing is going to change by appealing to scientists to don't cite weak research lmao

Re: What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

#59
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only it was all data, statistics and hypotheses in social science. As it stands, that's a relatively modern idea in the field. Take a look at some of the stuff they teach in sociology 101: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_actions It's all utter fiction. The long drawn out ramblings of ancient white men who formulated theories as their favorite pastime. None of it is experimentally derived because there were…

The physical sciences have no less "old white man conjecture" in their history.

They have but is not taught as science. Physics 101 does not study Aristotles ideas as part of physics. Not because they are wrong but because they are not scientific. They start with Galileo and Newton.

Re: What's wrong with social science and how to fix it

#60

> Publishing your own weak papers is one thing, but citing other people's weak papers? This seemed implausible... This is practically required by reviewers and editors. If you wade into a topic area, you need to review the field and explain where you fit in, even though you know full well many of those key citations are garbage. You basically need to pay homage to the "ground breakers" who claimed that turf first, ev…

Citing a paper needn't be a celebration of it, you can cite a paper to say "these guys find X but..."
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