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Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

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Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#51

Post by numpad0 »

jncraton wrote: post #25
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

There is no negativity or positivity, towards or against, Blue Origin, or ULA, or SpaceX, or Tesla. None. Anywhere.

It’s the script some people are reading aloud, “I don’t understand why there is negativity...” like GPT-3 made out of human flesh.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#52

Post by mbell »

jncraton wrote: post #25
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

> getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days.

There are have only been maybe a dozen LEO+ launch families developed ever, and less than a handful by private companies. There exist only 3 active systems in the same category as New Glenn (Long March 5, Delta IV, Falcon Heavy).

Getting anything more than a toy to orbit is _extremely_ difficult, and many have lost untold millions trying to get just a toy to orbit. It is a _really big deal_.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#53

Post by mcot2 »

thinkcontext wrote: post #41

The synergy of using AWS ground stations for customers as well as their own use is an interesting advantage. SpaceX has to spend on ground stations and won't make it up until their service goes online, while Amazon can begin recovering their costs right away. And it just plugs in to all their other AWS services as well. Plus Amazon of course has all the best on the ground network infrastructure already in place, Spac…

SpaceX has a tremendous first mover advantage and a ton more experience in Space. Networking talent and building things on earth is not hard to buy.

Starlink is ready to go now and already is in Beta. They have more customers signing up for the beta than they can handle and they can charge practically any price they want for this service since nothing else like it exists.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#54

Post by JumpCrisscross »

jncraton wrote: post #25
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

> why would BO fail where so many other have succeeded in launching payloads to orbit?

Guess: Blue Origin employees don’t get equity.

Obviously more motivates an aerospace engineer than cashing out. But my understanding is Bezos owns 100% of Blue Origin. It’s solely his project. That probably changes the type of person they attract and their personal dedication to the effort.

Also, “so many others” haven’t succeeded on orbital insertion. Most efforts (start counting at successful motor test) failed.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#55

Post by nscalf »

jncraton wrote: post #25
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

The default state of space is failure. It's incredibly expensive, extremely error prone, and failure can have catastrophic results. There's a reason SpaceX was laughed out of room for years. Hell, the most basic problem is described as tyranny.

Regardless of how rich Bezos is, can he bring the right type of talent together and get that talent to make no errors? How many hundreds of millions to billions of dollars is he willing to throw away with nothing to show for it? It's not just can it be done, it's can it be done in this competitive environment before SpaceX pulls so far ahead that there isn't any reason to compete? Add onto it that most of the top talent wants to be, and is, at SpaceX.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#56

Post by JumpCrisscross »

kemiller wrote: post #34
chmullig wrote: post #3

I feel like this massively overstates the advantages of an AWS to satellite link. They aren’t going to put tiny regions in space, so it’s just about data transit. Nobody would suggest AWS should start a cell phone company or fiber ISP just for bundling that with AWS. IP, possibly with a VPN, is a very solved issue for AWS access. It’s how 100% of their customers use AWS now, after all.

LEO satellites have potential for very low latency over large distances which could be very valuable for multi-zone customers and Amazon itself. Lasers in a vacuum.

> Lasers in a vacuum

Wait, Kuiper is doing lasers?

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#57

Post by rurounijones »

shantara wrote: post #50
rurounijones wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled. I am curious what would happen here. Lets say they get 45% of their satellites up and miss the mark. Do we just end up with a hundres of useless satellites drifting in space doing nothing or ar…

Their license may be reduced to the number of satellites they've already launched. > Failure to meet the milestone requirements of 47 CFR § 25.164(b) may result in Kuiper’s authorization being reduced to the number of satellites in use on the milestone date [1] FCC authorization: https://www.fcc.gov/document/fcc-authorizes-kuiper-satellite... [2] FCC "Milestones" regulation for satellite communications: https://www.e…

Thank you for the info.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#58

Post by someperson »

numpad0 wrote: post #51
jncraton wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't fully understand the negativity around BO. They haven't gone to orbit yet, and they don't run everything they do as a PR campaign the way that SpaceX does, but getting a rocket to orbit isn't that big of a deal these days. We first achieved orbital flight over 50 years ago, and many different groups have achieved the same since then. Given Bezos' deep pockets, why would BO fail where so many other have succee…

There is no negativity or positivity, towards or against, Blue Origin, or ULA, or SpaceX, or Tesla. None. Anywhere. It’s the script some people are reading aloud, “I don’t understand why there is negativity...” like GPT-3 made out of human flesh.

Boeing's Space Launch System and to a lesser extent ULA's (Atlas/Delta) are certainly disliked among many space enthusiasts (on /r/spacex and other watering holes) for wasting taxpayer money in huge amounts.

Blue Origin is disliked for being an extremely well-funded project that appears to make almost no progress after 20 years, yet causes SpaceX grief by being a patenting the landing rockets on ocean platforms idea just as they were about to achieve it (and the "join the club" tweet).

The hate may or may not be petty, but it's wrong to say it's not there.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#59

Post by JumpCrisscross »

paulsutter wrote: post #47

Bizarre claim. In what way would Starlink have any less access to AWS? Its... the internet > “If Kuiper succeeds, Amazon can not only offer global satellite broadband access—it can include that access as part of its Amazon Web Services (AWS), which already offers resources for cloud computing, machine learning, data analytics, and more”

> In what way would Starlink have any less access to AWS?

It’s a distribution advantage.

To sign up a new customer, Starlink has to...sign up a new customer. Contracts, configuration, payment details, integration. Kuiper, on the other hand, has to get them to click a button on a dashboard.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#60

Post by ttul »

There are definitely advantages to having an always-present network and not relying on terrestrial networks operated by third parties. Many big AWS users are companies with extensive sensor networks. Replacing ancient SCADA networks with high bandwidth space networks that connect to your back end inside AWS is a strong value prop.
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