Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment • Hacker News Board

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#51

Post by causalmodels » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:41 PM UTC

JohnTHaller wrote: post #25

alexpetralia wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sense of how people are managing? I sort of assumed that people _must_ be receiving money because there's no way Americans in the lower deciles of savings would be able to pay their bills consistently without work or stimulus. If there's no stimulus and no work, how are they paying bills? Is it on credit? Was there actually some savings?

25% of folks in NYC, the largest rental market in the US, haven't made rent payments since March. NYC has put a hold on evictions, but their owed rent is still building up. The majority of Americans weren't able to cover an unexpected $500 expense before the pandemic hit. The full depth of how bad this is going to get hasn't hit most people nor has it hit the markets.

The blanket eviction moratorium has expired in NYC. You can now be brought to court for failure to pay, but if you can prove financial hardship they can't kick you out. This is a fairly substantial burden. I'm afraid what will happen since people can't afford rent let alone legal representation.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#52

Post by dman » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:41 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #42

raziel2701 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economic data ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL#0 ) is showing deflation. The quantitative easing has so far been deflationary. The Fed can lower interest rates, but it cannot make people spend. People are unemployed and scared, they are not borrowing money, and it shows in the lending data as well ( https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.h... ) where we can see falling numbers in…

I am speaking anecdotally here but.. Deflation? I can’t think of a single product that has gone down in price and numerous things are more expensive. In particular, virtually every single food item at the grocery store is more expensive than it was in March. Am I the only one who has experienced this? It seems like basic staples (milk, eggs, flour) are substantially more expensive than a few months ago.

You are correct - I moved and thought the store in the new area was a ripoff before realizing that food prices are up everywhere. I buy a fair amount of Indian groceries and the prices of many staples is up ~25-30%.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#53

Post by syspec » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:43 PM UTC

ethanwillis wrote: post #2

Our government has failed in their response at local, state, and federal levels. The other thing we're going to be seeing soon is that these Unemployment programs have failed to do what they're ordained to do. This is an anecdote, but my brother was furloughed and has been waiting on any money (including the first stimulus) for literally months

The fact that this is not discussed more, or that congress and the president have already "moved on" is so frustrating.

The president should be making distributing this aid, and fixing the unemployment benefits mess his priority for these people. Instead he's doing a photo op with cans of beans in the Oval Office, and another photo op down the street with a bible he holds like an alien artifact

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#54

Post by 34679 » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:44 PM UTC

dannyw wrote: post #27

NiekvdMaas wrote: post #3

Meanwhile the S&P 500 is 5% away from an ATH record. Unemployed people = gambling with stocks + FOMO?

That is what 4-6 trillion of money creation by the Fed will do, yes.

Everyone seems to think the stock market going up is always an indicator of an increase in value of those stocks. But there are at least two reasons the price of an asset can increase. One is the asset gains value. The other is the currency loses value. I don't see how anyone can look at the US economy right now, outside of the stock market, and come to the conclusion that more value is being created or profit being made. The unemployment numbers alone tell us there's less being produced, less work being accomplished.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#55

Post by soared » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:44 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #42

raziel2701 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economic data ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL#0 ) is showing deflation. The quantitative easing has so far been deflationary. The Fed can lower interest rates, but it cannot make people spend. People are unemployed and scared, they are not borrowing money, and it shows in the lending data as well ( https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.h... ) where we can see falling numbers in…

I am speaking anecdotally here but.. Deflation? I can’t think of a single product that has gone down in price and numerous things are more expensive. In particular, virtually every single food item at the grocery store is more expensive than it was in March. Am I the only one who has experienced this? It seems like basic staples (milk, eggs, flour) are substantially more expensive than a few months ago.

Real prices lag behind deflation. Short term deflation is really only visible in market/financial metrics/prices.

But your other point is probably more correct - supply/demand swings in the short term affect the prices you see more than deflation/inflation.

Technically a gallon of milk should go up in price like 6-10 cents a year, which you might not notice.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#56

Post by mjayhn » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:46 PM UTC

_wldu wrote: post #29

paulmd wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roughly 1 in 3 american households are behind on their housing payments. Most states (and all federally backed mortgages) have temporarily suspended evictions so the short answer is that people in financial distress dropped that expense, which is usually the single largest on most people's budgets (for low-income people this can often be 50% or more of take-home depending on the city - yes, the rule of thumb is that…

Almost 40% of homes in America are owned free and clear (no mortgage). https://www.forbes.com/sites/brendarichardson/2019/07/26/nea...

I'm not sure what you're trying to really portend here but this is a huge, huge part of that article considering it's almost the entirety of the current working class parents;

Sixty-eight percent of adults 70 and older are mortgage-free, while 15.9% of Millennials are free and clear of mortgage payments.

I'm in my mid-30s and I hardly have any friends that own houses and if they do they're tech workers with decades left on their loans.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#57

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:46 PM UTC

ethanwillis wrote: post #44

dominotw wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> any money (including the first stimulus) for literally months I got mine almost immediately. What is the difference between me and your brother, I don't understand.

This is the same question I have. Other family members and friends have all received theirs. He's much younger than me, working entry level jobs, filed all of his taxes, etc. I just looked up some news about it, apparently about 30-35 million(estimated) checks have not been sent out.

[deleted]

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#58

Post by ls612 » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:47 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #42

raziel2701 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economic data ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL#0 ) is showing deflation. The quantitative easing has so far been deflationary. The Fed can lower interest rates, but it cannot make people spend. People are unemployed and scared, they are not borrowing money, and it shows in the lending data as well ( https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.h... ) where we can see falling numbers in…

I am speaking anecdotally here but.. Deflation? I can’t think of a single product that has gone down in price and numerous things are more expensive. In particular, virtually every single food item at the grocery store is more expensive than it was in March. Am I the only one who has experienced this? It seems like basic staples (milk, eggs, flour) are substantially more expensive than a few months ago.

Some food products have increased in price since the pandemic mostly due to production and distribution chain issues. However, the basic staples you mention are such a small proportion of the budgets of people that even a significant rise in their price won’t move the inflation needle much compared to other categories.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#59

Post by causalmodels » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:47 PM UTC

wronglebowski wrote: post #28

ethanwillis wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can really only give my personal viewpoint of it. But for me personally I just have not been paying my mortgage only because I was lucky enough to have a government backed mortgage loan where I could tell the bank "tough shit" until the end of the year. Also there have been temporary measures in place for things like utilities, ISPs, mobile phone plans etc. where people will keep accruing obligations on their bills…

In my experience access to credit besides credit cards has been extremely limited. My wife and I looked into several different personal or short term loan options for our upcoming IVF cycle(approx 30k$). Most banks have either stopped offering them completely or made the requirements much harder. The two of us with credit scores of 750+, combined 200k annual income and little existing debt couldn't get approved for a…

This reminds me of a little trick I learned while working in finance.

If you have bad credit but have over $1,000 in cash, go and get an unsecured loan for roughly 90% of your cash on hand. Ideally the terms should have a negligible or nonexistent prepayment penalty. Once you have the loan, repay it within 2-3 business days.

Rinse and repeat until your credit score starts to improve.

Re: Another 1.3M Americans File for Unemployment

#60

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 16, 2020, 4:48 PM UTC

Answerawake wrote: post #38

claudeganon wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know what this is supposed to mean, but this failure extends across both parties in the United States. The refusal by politicians to take on Capital owners is pushing people into homelessness, loss of healthcare, or danger in low wage jobs, all of which further exacerbate the pandemic. The mainstream of the Democratic Party has advanced little that would address any of this, mostly quibbling over means testin…

This is what boggles my mind. We had progressive candidates running this cycle that were outright commiting to trying something different. Yet the majority of the voter base ran towards people promising the same strategy as previous administrations. Either this crisis is magnified on HN and the majority of the voter base is unaffected by the pandemic or something else is going on.

[deleted]