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Every tech downturn has a silver lining

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Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#51

Post by anongraddebt »

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #49
mikequinlan wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4K TV (from Netflix) recommends 25Mbps for each stream. I know that this isn't 100Mbps but Netflix supports streaming to 4 devices at once (with the premium account). You also have to allow for other simultaneous usages (your kids playing games while you are streaming video, etc.). This doesn't answer the question of what 10Gbps would be used for, but there are at least some applications today that use a significant…

The counterpoint to this is that once you've got enough bandwidth (and low latency) to stream an interactive session with negligible quality issues, you can move anything that requires more bandwidth offsite ('the cloud') and just stream the audio/video output. As things stand though, it's as kortilla says: we don't even have any such bandwidth-intensive applications in the home. 4k video streaming is the most bandwi…

There could be some semantic issues here. It would seem that a non-trivial number of people have a connection where the actual speed differs a decent amount from the stated/expected. This has certainly been my case after living in L.A. and Chicago.

Perhaps the previous commenter perceives a 10gbps connection as the speed of an actual, say, 5gbps connection.

Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#52

Post by fastball »

yomly wrote: post #26
jordanthoms wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd settle for IP-based video conferencing that actually works, 100% of the time. As far as I can tell the major issues with that now are more from WiFi - Bufferbloat is particularly bad there and interference causes small dropouts (run a ping to a local router in the background for a while, and you'll probably see jitter eventually). It's pretty noticeable here in New Zealand where most people are now on fiber conne…

Are you talking about video chat within NZ or with rest of world? I imagine there's a fixed amount of latency with calling anyone in NZ due to speed of light...

As the crow flies, it takes light 66ms to get from one point on earth to a point on the opposite side.

Pretty sure the limiting factor is not the speed of light. It's the fact that (currently) these packets on not traveling in a straight line, and there is a lot of switching happening between A and B.

There is plenty of room for improvement in this area.

Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#53

Post by richardjdare »

TomMarius wrote: post #30
bawolff wrote: post #17

> My bet is always-on broadband. Virtual worlds, digital entertainment, gaming …. None of it would be possible without broadband. Today, we have about 100-250 Mbps in most modern homes. In some places, you can get a gigabit per second. Now imagine what we could do if, in ten years, we all have 10 gigabits per second in our homes, and we have in-home networks that are fast and fat. Hmm. Kind of an interesting take. I…

In 2005, 10 Mbps was already the norm, and in 2010, we had 100 Mbps up and down.

This is quite a galling discussion :) I get ~2.5mbs. I live in a village about 30 miles from the second biggest city in the uk.

I've really noticed how ordinary websites have become sluggish over the past few years. To their credit, Netflix is ok as long as nobody else in the house is doing anything online.

I'm thinking I'll have to start some kind of local action group to get BT to take notice and install fibre.

Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#54

Post by fastball »

kortilla wrote: post #39
mikequinlan wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"640K ought to be enough for anyone" said by someone, possibly. If we have 10GB networks, applications will be found to make use of it. Possibly (hopefully) applications that we haven't yet even imagined.

But the point is that applications haven’t even found a use for 100mbps to the home. I have 1gbps to mine and about the only time it’s been useful is when a friend wants to play a game I have on steam but not locally.

3D video at 4K+ requires a good chunk of 100mbps.

Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#55

Post by MaxBarraclough »

anongraddebt wrote: post #51
MaxBarraclough wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The counterpoint to this is that once you've got enough bandwidth (and low latency) to stream an interactive session with negligible quality issues, you can move anything that requires more bandwidth offsite ('the cloud') and just stream the audio/video output. As things stand though, it's as kortilla says: we don't even have any such bandwidth-intensive applications in the home. 4k video streaming is the most bandwi…

There could be some semantic issues here. It would seem that a non-trivial number of people have a connection where the actual speed differs a decent amount from the stated/expected. This has certainly been my case after living in L.A. and Chicago. Perhaps the previous commenter perceives a 10gbps connection as the speed of an actual, say, 5gbps connection.

I don't see your point here. For the purposes of our conversation, 5gbps and 10gbps are just the same; they're far in excess of 25mbps. Dishonest ISPs are another topic entirely.

Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#56

Post by fastball »

bawolff wrote: post #32
harpratap wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Streaming Games? Streaming VR and AR content? Lower latencies will allow more seamless video conferences. Right now our interface planes are still very 2D, which still has a steep learning curve compared to our 3D world.

Sure, but latency and bandwidth are different things. Reducing latency by a few orders of magnitudes would open up tons of applications (not sure i agree that video conf is one of them, dont think latency of internet is the main issue there) but i don't think we are likely to see much beyond incremental improvements (light only travels so fast)

More bandwidth == less switching == lower latency.

Also light can travel from point A to the diametrically opposite point on the surface of earth in 66ms.

Currently it takes 227ms to ping New York from Tokyo[1]. As light travels, those two cities are only 36ms away from each other. Seems like there is plenty of room for improvement, even given the speed of light.

[1] https://wondernetwork.com/pings

Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#57

Post by FartyMcFarter »

joelbluminator wrote: post #44

Are we actually in the midst of a tech downturn though? I mean tech valuation are back to what they were pre corona pretty much. Did VC money completely dry up?

IBM has laid people off. Some companies like Uber, Lyft and Airbnb laid off a lot of tech people (even if the extent of their status as "tech" companies is questionable).

Some governments are pledging support to startups, which is indicative of some trouble: https://sifted.eu/articles/startups-government-support/

Anecdotally, I'm also hearing that startups are having a hard time finding funding, which isn't surprising in the current cautious financial climate.

Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#58

Post by TomMarius »

richardjdare wrote: post #53
TomMarius wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2005, 10 Mbps was already the norm, and in 2010, we had 100 Mbps up and down.

This is quite a galling discussion :) I get ~2.5mbs. I live in a village about 30 miles from the second biggest city in the uk. I've really noticed how ordinary websites have become sluggish over the past few years. To their credit, Netflix is ok as long as nobody else in the house is doing anything online. I'm thinking I'll have to start some kind of local action group to get BT to take notice and install fibre.

Even wifi can be made way faster, why don't you start a community WISP? Small nonprofit WISPs basically formed the market in the Czech Republic, which is why I had these speeds.

Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#59

Post by joelbluminator »

FartyMcFarter wrote: post #57
joelbluminator wrote: post #44

Are we actually in the midst of a tech downturn though? I mean tech valuation are back to what they were pre corona pretty much. Did VC money completely dry up?

IBM has laid people off. Some companies like Uber, Lyft and Airbnb laid off a lot of tech people (even if the extent of their status as "tech" companies is questionable). Some governments are pledging support to startups, which is indicative of some trouble: https://sifted.eu/articles/startups-government-support/ Anecdotally, I'm also hearing that startups are having a hard time finding funding, which isn't surprisin…

Yes, I hear the anecdotes as well. I guess a lot depends on what happens in the fall/winter corona-wise. If it declines and doesn't come back you could make the case for a relatively quick recovery.

Re: Every tech downturn has a silver lining

#60

Post by mikequinlan »

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #49
mikequinlan wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4K TV (from Netflix) recommends 25Mbps for each stream. I know that this isn't 100Mbps but Netflix supports streaming to 4 devices at once (with the premium account). You also have to allow for other simultaneous usages (your kids playing games while you are streaming video, etc.). This doesn't answer the question of what 10Gbps would be used for, but there are at least some applications today that use a significant…

The counterpoint to this is that once you've got enough bandwidth (and low latency) to stream an interactive session with negligible quality issues, you can move anything that requires more bandwidth offsite ('the cloud') and just stream the audio/video output. As things stand though, it's as kortilla says: we don't even have any such bandwidth-intensive applications in the home. 4k video streaming is the most bandwi…

I don't want to belabor this, but you are saying "all applications that I can think of can be implemented using existing bandwidth". I am saying that clever people will invent new applications, ones that no one has thought of yet (or that no one thinks is practical), once the bandwidth is available.
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