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Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

e.nikkei.com

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Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#51

Post by mattmcknight »

blhack wrote: post #41

It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?

Another aspect is that people actually need cash in these sort of situations and sell liquid assets to get it, while others that need cash on hand are putting less in. So, the market may benefit a long term holder of securities, but people that do or might need the money soon can't afford the short term volatility.

Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#52

Post by pbhjpbhj »

jarek wrote: post #34
PakG1 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True story, probably experienced by thousands of people. Know someone who was into daytrading stocks and such. He had a home, no mortgage, no debt. Ended up losing the home. Wife left, took the kids. Wife eventually came back with the kids, they live a simple life now in some apartment. Life is not what it was, but they're getting by. If you don't know what you're doing, you can lose everything. When you talk with tr…

The trick to getting rich is trading with other people's money. You win, you get commission. You lose, it's not your money.

>You win, you get commission. You lose, it's not your money.

You get a wage either way. If the bank profits you get a bonus too even if you lost your customers money. If you screw the bank up the gov bails you out and you still get a bonus.

Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#53

Post by spitfire »

patio11 wrote: post #40
lionhearted wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota's trading at 21 times earnings on the NYSE... that doesn't seem like a crazy bargain. (Or is there some parallel listing on the Nikkei?)

Toyota is listed on the Nikkei. The thing at the NYSE is called an American Depository Receipt (ADR). Basically, it is a coupon that says "Entitles the bearer to two shares of Toyota common stock in Japan." In principle, the two do not necessarily have to move in lockstep. However, because of the massive size, prominence, and stability of Toyota, one would ordinarily expect them to correlate extraordinarily heavily a…

Various algorithmic traders play on these dual listings. Put a computer in between (in network terms) and you can trade ahead of the people in either japan or new york.

and of course you can also do regular pairs trading (if they drift farther apart).

Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#54

Post by dereg »

phlux wrote: post #48
josh33 wrote: post #10

Careful. Japan's debt level, when compared to GDP, is higher than US: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/03/sovereig...

and they just lost ~1 trillion ++ worth of infrastructure... I believe they have a 10 year rebuild in front of them. This is assuming that we have hit bottom on the catastrophe over there now and that we can contain the Daiichi plant. It would be very interesting though, if things turn south and some massive takeovers occur in the next 12 months. Imagine companies like Fujitsu, Hitachi or others (my mind is blank) be…

Currency? Do you have a source on revised infrastructure damage figures, because I've only seen $100-150 billion estimates by some insurance companies.

Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#55

Post by PakG1 »

jarek wrote: post #34
PakG1 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True story, probably experienced by thousands of people. Know someone who was into daytrading stocks and such. He had a home, no mortgage, no debt. Ended up losing the home. Wife left, took the kids. Wife eventually came back with the kids, they live a simple life now in some apartment. Life is not what it was, but they're getting by. If you don't know what you're doing, you can lose everything. When you talk with tr…

The trick to getting rich is trading with other people's money. You win, you get commission. You lose, it's not your money.

This fiduciary disconnect can create a lot of malevolent market behaviour if controls aren't in place. And more often than not, controls aren't in place.

http://blogmaverick.com/2008/11/13/the-hedge-fund-disconnect...

Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#56

Post by msbarnett »

AngryParsley wrote: post #49
blhack wrote: post #41

It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?

Exactly. People who make fortunes off these markets are selling. Either they're wrong or posters here are. Guess which option is more likely. I think the LessWrong post Markets are Anti-Inductive explains it well: http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/

Well, it's recovered about 400 points since this was posted, so the professionals seem to have decided they were deeply into buy territory, too.

Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#57

Post by jarek »

msbarnett wrote: post #56
AngryParsley wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. People who make fortunes off these markets are selling. Either they're wrong or posters here are. Guess which option is more likely. I think the LessWrong post Markets are Anti-Inductive explains it well: http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/

Well, it's recovered about 400 points since this was posted, so the professionals seem to have decided they were deeply into buy territory, too.

Or this is just the optimists and opportunists buying in before it crashes again. :D

Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#58

Post by PakG1 »

citizenkeys wrote: post #46
kelnos wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Be careful. Good work ethic doesn't always mean business success. The two are correlated, but that doesn't suggest that tossing money at any Japanese company is the way to go. Still do your due diligence and only invest in solid companies. This is certainly an opportunity, but not a reason to be irresponsible.

Here's a list of companies "from or based in Japan": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_of_Japan Sony, Toyota, Honda, Nintendo, etc. Japanese companies like these that were a great investment a week ago are still a great investment. Only now the stock is less expensive because of a temporary panic. Smart money is buying up all the stock possible for these companies before they can rebound.

The big question is how the operations of each of those companies is affected. If operations are hugely impacted and would require time to rebuild, their stocks will not rebound so easily.

Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#59

Post by dsl »

mikebo wrote: post #15

Be careful - "John Mauldin: Japan Is a Bug Searching for a Windshield" http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2010/07/22/john-...

A smart man no doubt, but taken out of context for the current discussion.

He is talking about long term deleveraging in many different countries. His outlook for the US is just as grim.

Re: Bottom just fell out of Nikkei

#60

Post by mikeryan »

blhack wrote: post #41

It seems like everybody in this thread is saying "No duh, invest in Japan right now!" The assumption is that the market will turn around, and anybody who buys into Japanese companies stands to make a lot of money. If this is the case, then why are the prices going down at all? Are other investors really that ignorant?

If you are already invested in Japanese equities the "safe" play is to try to take some cash off the table to defend against what could be a bleak revenue picture in the near future. If you are not yet in that market then there might be a long term play investing when these stocks are weak. Id assume most here who advocate buying are in this boat.

Both buying and selling may be the correct play depending on your current position.

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