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Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

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Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#51

Post by recursive »

dominotw wrote: post #29

I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…

It's possible to get infected even if you're following the guidelines. For example, essential workers may get infected by a carrier performing essential activities.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#52

Post by bonzini »

dominotw wrote: post #29

I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…

Has the growth in daily deaths been exponential in the last few weeks, or linear, or sublinear?

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#53

Post by gpderetta »

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #36
HPsquared wrote: post #5

Flu, seasonal pneumonia... what's the diff?

Flu are caused by the viruses, pneumonia is the serious bacterial infection of the lungs potentially caused by having influenza. You would count seasonal pneumonia if you wanted to see how serious that seasonal flu was.

Technically no, in addition to bacterial pneumonia (which is often caused by opportunistic infection after a virual invection), there is straight viral pneumonia without any bacterial infection. Even fungi by themselves can cause pneumonia.

The difference is that flu does not always cause pneumonia.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#54

Post by ceejayoz »

hartator wrote: post #48
dominotw wrote: post #29

I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…

Or lockdowns are not significantly slowing down the virus to be statically visible. The thing is airborne, can spread to animals, and into the pipes. Lockdowns don’t affect those at all.

SARS-CoV-2 is not airborne. https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-t...

> In an analysis of 75,465 COVID-19 cases in China, airborne transmission was not reported.

Some animals can get it, but don't appear to be a major source of transmission to humans.

The pipes thing is unconfirmed and that's in one special case of broken plumbing. https://cph.temple.edu/about/news-events/news/can-coronaviru...

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#55

Post by bonzini »

hartator wrote: post #48
dominotw wrote: post #29

I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…

Or lockdowns are not significantly slowing down the virus to be statically visible. The thing is airborne, can spread to animals, and into the pipes. Lockdowns don’t affect those at all.

If the growth is not exponential anymore, the effect of lockdown is already very much statistically significant.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#56

Post by ballenf »

HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

Here's the 2 numbers that matter:

- Covid w/o a shutdown

- Overall deaths from lockdown w/o Covid

Neither number can ever do more than guess at and fight at which statistical model lies less.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#57

Post by rossdavidh »

It should be said, there's all kinds of situations where it makes sense to compare apples and oranges. You could compare their nutrition, to see which you should eat. You could compare their price, to see which you should buy. As long as you're aware that you're comparing two things that aren't identical (and you always are), it's often perfectly valid to compare apples and oranges. Just don't claim they're both apples.

I don't think anyone comparing Covid-19 and influenza, is unaware that they are different viruses. But, as when we compare gun violence to drug overdoses to traffic fatalities, it is often a useful and justifiable thing to do, to compare different dangers. Should I take the risk of flying (e.g. after 9/11), or drive 500 miles? Well driving and flying are very different, but it can make sense to compare them.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#58

Post by Mary-Jane »

ceejayoz wrote: post #54
hartator wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or lockdowns are not significantly slowing down the virus to be statically visible. The thing is airborne, can spread to animals, and into the pipes. Lockdowns don’t affect those at all.

SARS-CoV-2 is not airborne. https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-t... > In an analysis of 75,465 COVID-19 cases in China, airborne transmission was not reported. Some animals can get it, but don't appear to be a major source of transmission to humans. The pipes thing is unconfirmed and that's in one special case of broken plumbing. https://cph.temple.edu/about/news-events/news/can-coronaviru...

So what's the point of wearing masks then?

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#59

Post by Pxtl »

HPsquared wrote: post #25

Flu or not, it's possible to compare all-cause mortality this year against previous years. That's about as hard data as it gets. How does Covid compare to "seasonal all-cause-winter-deaths"? That's what people are interested in - how unprecedented is the death rate?

One problem with comparing excess deaths is that automotive traffic deaths are down, and automotive traffic deaths are a very large slice of the pie in many countries (including the USA).

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#60

Post by natch »

I have a friend who works in a stroke unit and he says almost nobody is coming in for strokes. Instead some people are just suffering or dying at home. Of strokes. Not every single one of them, but some alarming and as yet unknown number.

All that sounds unrelated to Covid-19. But the reason they are not going to the hospital is because they fear going into a medical facility, for fear of Corona virus. Should these deaths be counted as Covid-19 deaths? As shelter in place deaths? Or just as strokes? I'm not sure. It's complicated to sort this stuff out.

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