Tesla Q1 2020 Update

They went from individual stampings welded together to very large die-cast parts.

As an investor, I like the format these results are presented in. The slide deck approach is a lot more approachable than the typical text-only SEC filing. An average investor is much more likely to open this and read it than the typical financial statement. It's not over-the-top marketing agency gloss, but it has some nice touches. Of course, you also get the text-only filing to follow.

As far as the key numbers, Tesla continues to push profitability and I think beat estimates by pulling off a profitable quarter in Q1. I can't imagine they will do it again in Q2, and they've suspended their guidance, but compare and contrast to, e.g. Ford, which is currently drawing all their credit lines to the max to stay afloat (to the tune of $15 billion).

They've never had spare inventory before, it will be interesting to see how fast they can clear it when things pick up. In a very long shutdown scenario, Tesla will come out way ahead of standard auto makers because their cars somewhat forego the "New Model Year" craze, and they can software update all their inventory. So while most carmakers will be looking at bursting full lots of "late model year" new cars, Tesla will be selling "Model 3" and "Model Y" through their configurator same as usual.

It's been fun watching the Munro tear-downs of the Model Y. I'm curious when and how quickly those improvements will make it back into a redesigned Model 3. They have definitely improved and simplified the design in important ways. They highlighted this in their slides at the end showing underbody components of Model 3 (70 pieces) vs Model Y (2 pieces, eventually 1).

Solar is unfortunately MIA in this report. Buffalo managed to get Solar Roof ramped up to 4MW per week (1,000 homes per week) just as the shutdown hit. I would imagine a lot of momentum has been lost in their installer recruitment and training efforts. I would have been very nice to see some ROI in 2020 from Solar Roof, but I'm not sure we'll get it this year.

Looking forward to getting to see a Model Y in person and feel how much more space it has. It seems like they've left a good deal of acceleration "in the tank" to unlock in future software updates, that will also be fun to see.

Batshit crazy? He just turned around Tesla, in an industry, where the last startup to succeed was over 80 years ago. Buy some Treasury bonds instead?

From what I understand, they are the same thing. And many CEOs are apparently sociopaths.

And I think Musk is clearly one of the better ones. Admittedly crazy and dangerous when he starts picking stupid internet fights, but when he focuses on building his companies, he seems to work miracles, and he does seem to care about people and the planet, which is more than I can say from many others. There are plenty of psychopathic CEOs that suck at their job (like the one currently in the White House).

I'm not the best in expressing this, but I believe to think like Elon Musk (except I'm lazy and not that bright), I think there are quite a few that think like Elon. Yes, I know how it sounds, but if you're obsessed about truth there's a chance you think like him as well.

IMO Elon Musk is rational and also expressive. He thinks from first principles (aka how does the world really work?) and he communicates that way.

Most people can't handle that. They can't handle when someone is expressive (aka the Tesla @ 420 tweet, he simply expresses his opinion) or reasoning from first principles (weed is legal right? Yea, might smoke it, might not, does it matter? New experience is new data, hmm, doesn't seem too interesting).

They think he's insane. He isn't. He does live a bit in a bubble where he sometimes forgets that other people are judgmental, mostly in a conservative sense (compared to how he thinks). But those judgmental people don't see one thing: the guy is hunting for truth, finding it and he applies it to its product.

Nothing beats truth* (the fact that we're using computers now and not an abacus is evidence of that)

* All the standard considerations of science apply (falsification, learning from your mistakes and so on).