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Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

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Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#51
post #19
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but once the outbreak is at a low enough level, and you have sufficient test bandwidth, you can manage it via testing and tracing. Everyone who gets sick, with anything, gets tested (in some variants of the plan every everywhere gets tested every N days). If you find a positive, quarantine them and test everyone they came in contact with. Repeat. This reduces the rate of spread by catching community transmission…

That is very labor intensive and isn't sustainable. People will get complacent fast.

[deleted]

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#52

Won't this reignite the spreading of the virus? Like, they missed a few people who were asymptotic and not tested, and are roaming the streets with other people?

Almost certainly. Nobody realistically thinks that we'll be able to reach a steady state where new outbreaks never happen. But they were able to suppress the outbreak in Daegu, so there's reason to be confident they can do it again.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#53

how was south korea able to scale up their testing so fast. Where did the extra testing capacity come from. I've been really curious about this but haven't seen any good answers so far.

All rich countries have been able to scale up their testing similarly quickly, once they decided it was a national priority to do so.

then how come all rich countries don't have 'mass testing success' like the article claims happened in south korea.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#54

how was south korea able to scale up their testing so fast. Where did the extra testing capacity come from. I've been really curious about this but haven't seen any good answers so far.

It is am extremely stark example of the value of maintaining manufacturing capacity in your country. Korea can makes tests, so they have tests.

Seegene, a company that makes Covid-19 testing equipment is in Korea. They just needed approval and to ramp up manufacturing. For most countries, like the US, we don't have the manufacturing ability anymore, so we have to go beg and buy tests while we figure how to make again. Seegene alone has been responsible for 80% of the tests in Korea.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#55

To be clear, the Korean government officially still recommends social distancing. They are especially worried about the family picnics mentioned in the article, and have officially closed many public parks in response. To repeat: don't take this as a sign that Korea believes it has successfully managed the outbreak.

You can't top mitigation/supression until there is herd immunity. You can get the immunity only two ways 1) enough people have been gone trough the disease or 2) vaccination. South Korea must use mitigation/supression until they have enough people vaccinated or it flares up again. Complete eradication without immunity is not feasible unless you isolate whole country from the rest of the world permanently.

You don't have to completely isolate the country from the world. You just have to do testing and quarantining to ensure that infectious people and things aren't entering the country.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#56

To be clear, the Korean government officially still recommends social distancing. They are especially worried about the family picnics mentioned in the article, and have officially closed many public parks in response. To repeat: don't take this as a sign that Korea believes it has successfully managed the outbreak.

The article and discussions about Korea seem to mainly revolve around testing and contact tracing. These are complex and expensive, and substantially more difficult to manage in a country like the US which is 7x the population, and is somewhat decentralized (50 states). Meanwhile, the on the street observations in the article are: masks, masks, masks. Masks are cheap and easy. So let's start with masks, masks, masks…

Also, they are very meticulous about taking their shoes off before going into a home and about keeping their floors clean. Which may be more important, especially in dense locations, than we might be realizing.

A Chinese study found that the virus was probably being moved around by people's shoes https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All rich countries have been able to scale up their testing similarly quickly, once they decided it was a national priority to do so.

then how come all rich countries don't have 'mass testing success' like the article claims happened in south korea.

They took a long time to decide it was a national priority. At the point when Korea started heavily ramping up its testing program, most Western countries took roughly the same approach they took during SARS, where they contact traced and tested only the few cases they knew about with the expectation that'd be enough.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#58

how was south korea able to scale up their testing so fast. Where did the extra testing capacity come from. I've been really curious about this but haven't seen any good answers so far.

It is am extremely stark example of the value of maintaining manufacturing capacity in your country. Korea can makes tests, so they have tests. Seegene, a company that makes Covid-19 testing equipment is in Korea. They just needed approval and to ramp up manufacturing. For most countries, like the US, we don't have the manufacturing ability anymore, so we have to go beg and buy tests while we figure how to make again…

Afaik, the shortage in US is mainly of raw materials and commodity items like pipettes. How did Seegene ramp up its raw material pipeline so quickly. Really fascinating success.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't top mitigation/supression until there is herd immunity. You can get the immunity only two ways 1) enough people have been gone trough the disease or 2) vaccination. South Korea must use mitigation/supression until they have enough people vaccinated or it flares up again. Complete eradication without immunity is not feasible unless you isolate whole country from the rest of the world permanently.

You don't have to completely isolate the country from the world. You just have to do testing and quarantining to ensure that infectious people and things aren't entering the country.

You can still trade with the rest of the world - people are still doing that now, in fact, with international trade being universally exempted from travel bans. But I can't imagine tourism or business travel being compatible with the level of quarantine required to keep an endemic respiratory virus eradicated within your borders.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

then how come all rich countries don't have 'mass testing success' like the article claims happened in south korea.

They took a long time to decide it was a national priority. At the point when Korea started heavily ramping up its testing program, most Western countries took roughly the same approach they took during SARS, where they contact traced and tested only the few cases they knew about with the expectation that'd be enough.

I am unable to find any reliable data that shows the ramp up of testing capacity after deciding its a national priority by country. What is the basis for 'similarly quickly' ?

Sibling comment to your original comment seems to suggest US wasn't able to 'similarly quickly' due to lack of onsite manufacturing.

Even the article suggests this,

> The country was testing people for the virus at the fastest pace in the world

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