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Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

science.sciencemag.org

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Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#51

Post by orbifold »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #37
orbifold wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah no this is not happening, the young people will revolt before that. You can suspend civil liberties for a few months, that's fine, but not intermittently over several years. No way that governments in western countries will get away with that. I expect this to be an event that will remove most baby-boomers from power and bring in the millennial generation, they expect us to support ~5 old people through most of…

Lmfao you are far too optimistic about the revolutionary potential of westernized young people. They will not revolt. They won't take power. They don't even vote today.

I think you underestimate how things can go from apathetic to extremely violent in a short period of time. There have been lots of violent (and non-violent) mass protests in several countries of Europe, for far smaller reasons, during last few years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots, France has the yellow west movement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_-W2_X5yS8 (this is happening despite the shutdown), Spain violently shut down Catalan independence last year, Italy is governed by a protest party, Germany had the Pegida and Friday's for Future Protests).

Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#52

Post by ejstronge »

ejstronge wrote: post #18
eloff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The common cold is dangerous to people? The flu, sure, but I never heard of people dying from a cold. I'm sure it happens, but in comparable numbers though? I don't think so.

You may already know this, but for the sake of others, it’s important to realize that many viruses cause what we refer to as ‘common cold’. Coronaviruses are only a minor component of this set of viruses, as low as 1-2% in a study I read (can’t find it now; this value also depends on lots of factors).

Too late to edit my comment, but a somewhat authoritative source claims 10-15% of colds are caused by coronaviruses (UpToDate, if you're curious). The study I read may have been referring to a specific coronavirus that was mentioned in the original post.

Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#53

Post by guscost »

guscost wrote: post #43
eloff wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. I'm unable to find any source with numbers. At best I've seen the statement "it's rarely fatal except in very rare circumstances". Like the flu, you don't die from the flu, but really it's the last straw on top of other issues that pushes people over the edge. But the flu is far more deadly than the common cold, it's misleading to talk about them together like that.

There are no numbers. Nobody has ever bothered to measure it separately from pneumonia. It’s hardly ever tested for or listed under cause of death, even when it’s obviously a factor. Once things change in the aftermath of all of this, we will see if your instinct is correct.

Well it turns out I'm wrong about this, there are some studies with numbers but they're pretty rare:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3655081/

> Twenty-two percent of all subjects with isolated coronavirus were hospitalized, but in the population aged ≥60 years this increased to 73%. While our study design precludes the determination of exact hospitalization rates as a result of coronavirus infections, the hospitalization rates were similar to those for influenza.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4181476/

> The high proportion of non-influenza infection in this study (72%) underscores the importance of non-influenza viral infection in contributing to severe illness necessitating hospital and ICU admission in adults, as has been found by others.

Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#54

Post by raphlinus »

raphlinus wrote: post #8
JetSetWilly wrote: post #4

This paper seems to have every imaginable scenario of which 2022 is a worst case. But, now actual data is starting to come in - such as the extremely interesting serum testing in Scotland (1) - which suggests that the infection rate is much much higher than previously supposed. The Scotland serum testing shows that around 35000 people were infected at a time when only 110 cases were known officially, and strongly sug…

That's a lot of interpretation from 6 cases. There's a lot of serological testing being done right now, and we'll have hard data soon, but from what I see from expert epidemiologists (disclosure: I'm not one myself), the idea that we have a vast number of completely asymptomatic cases is wishful thinking.

Here's an expert thread (for example): https://twitter.com/richardneher/status/1250533354560159745

Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#55

Post by redis_mlc »

ummonk wrote: post #50
guscost wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It happens all the time, in exactly the same sense that people are dying “from” COVID-19 (i.e. usually combined with other morbidities). How much of this pandemic is due to the disease actually being worse than other coronavirus diseases, and how much is simply due to the rapid spread/no pre-existing immunity, remains to be seen. Who else here remembers learning that AIDS patients (people with acquired immunodeficien…

Covid-19 is killing healthy young people with no known pre-existing conditions at very high rates. It just happens to be killing the elderly and those with comorbidites (which includes normal ailments like diabetes and obesity) at even higher rates. It isn’t just some new common cold that we don’t have herd immunity for. Different viruses have different lethality; common cold corona viruses are far milder than SARS-N…

Is it corona virus, or ventilators, killing them?

When you have a mortality rate of 66% to 90% for something tha isn't a hemorrhagic fever, it's the ventilator.

Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#56

Post by redis_mlc »

ummonk wrote: post #47
Jeema101 wrote: post #5

This article brings up something I was thinking about when this all first started: cross-immunity with other coronaviruses and whether or not infection with one of them could at least give partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2. As the study points out, there are less harmful human coronaviruses which are thought to cause around 15% of common colds worldwide. I wonder if anybody has thought to research using these viruses as…

Yeah I’ve been asking about this for a while with no good answers. Why aren’t we looking into whether it would be helpful to enable every healthy person to get the Coronavirus common cold to help boost herd immunity?

Normally modern medicine doesn't make people sick deliberately, because some percentage will always have some time of reaction. And the US is also a litigious society.

However, I'm in favor of ending lockdown and letting corona virus run its course, just like the flu every year. That's the fastest way to get herd immunity.

Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#57

Post by redis_mlc »

aaron695 wrote: post #12

It's mind blowing we are not putting more money, Billions of dollars, into why people are getting reinfected and around antibodies. It is fully expected people will be able to get the disease again in years. But it might be much sooner. And when you get it a second time it might not be as easy as the first. Your third winter and third time getting it might be death. This variable turns SARS-CoV-2 from it's current me…

Actually we don't have to do anything except let corona virus run its course. Just saved you billions in research.

Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#58

Post by javagram »

ummonk wrote: post #44
cm2187 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And also a similar study in Germany with similar results [1]. The result is of course to mechanically reduce the fatality rate to a number close to that of the flu (the problem for hospitals being not so much the fatality rate than the high number of infections), and well within the 0.1-1% range that US health authorities have been advertising for a while. Regarding models, it seems 0.15% is the new basis [2]. Even o…

South Korea’s fatality ratio at the time was obviously lagging, and has since gone above 1%. The true infection fatality rate might still be low but certainly the final case fatality rate won’t be, even with their mass testing.

As of April 9, according to Wikipedia, the CFR of covid-19 in South Korea reached 1.95%

The early pointing to South Korea’s CFR as low turned out to be misleading in the end due to I guess some issues relating to the data (probably because many cases were ongoing and the persons had neither died nor recovered).

Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#59

Post by javagram »

redis_mlc wrote: post #55
ummonk wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid-19 is killing healthy young people with no known pre-existing conditions at very high rates. It just happens to be killing the elderly and those with comorbidites (which includes normal ailments like diabetes and obesity) at even higher rates. It isn’t just some new common cold that we don’t have herd immunity for. Different viruses have different lethality; common cold corona viruses are far milder than SARS-N…

Is it corona virus, or ventilators, killing them? When you have a mortality rate of 66% to 90% for something tha isn't a hemorrhagic fever, it's the ventilator.

People were dying without ventilators in Wuhan and elsewhere. (E.g. all the people in NYC who are dying at home, something like 100 a day last I saw)

The ventilator from what people are saying doesn’t seem to help as much as was hoped, but it’s not like hospitals are killing the patients by putting them on a vent, which is what your comment seems to imply?

Re: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through postpandemic period

#60

Post by javagram »

redis_mlc wrote: post #57
aaron695 wrote: post #12

It's mind blowing we are not putting more money, Billions of dollars, into why people are getting reinfected and around antibodies. It is fully expected people will be able to get the disease again in years. But it might be much sooner. And when you get it a second time it might not be as easy as the first. Your third winter and third time getting it might be death. This variable turns SARS-CoV-2 from it's current me…

Actually we don't have to do anything except let corona virus run its course. Just saved you billions in research.

“Run its course” = 2-3% of the population die due to the virus.

I think the billions in research might be a more humane alternative.

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