In fact, one thing I have noticed is that the people who I consider to be good software developers barely ever apply for jobs at all. Good point. The best developers I ever hired were (a) already working, (b) not looking, (c) referred, and (d) without a current resume. Therefore, the people who I consider to be good software developers probably don't have a current resume. Therefore, the top 1% of good software devel…
Just to play devil's advocate, doesn't that rest on the assumption that the top 1% of software developers are also strong enough networkers that they can get a job pretty much anywhere without using the formal channels which would require item (d)? I'm not at all convinced that's the case, even though I understand that there's some truth to the conclusion.
I think this is largely true, though it takes a while for reputation to spread. There are some brilliant young developers who haven't yet been noticed by anybody in a position to hire them -- but they won't stay in that situation more than a couple of years.
The exception is somebody who is excellent, but stuck inside one company and not producing any publicly-available code. If she isn't actively promoting herself, it's possible nobody will ever notice her talent.