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Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

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Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#51

Post by kazinator »

munk-a wrote: post #44
jshevek wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "China is responsible for this whole thing" This is actually pretty racist China is in fact responsible for the global pandemic. How is this racist?

Because it isn't a fact and is downright false. China isn't great for a number of reasons and their suppression of information may have made this worse but blaming them wholesale for this outbreak is just silly.

The pandemic is the result of unsafe handling of infected meat in in China. It had to cross the Chinese border in order to be present elsewhere.

Moreover, it was predicted that such a pandemic would start in China, for exactly the reasons that it happened, yet China did nothing to prevent it.

Smithsonian Magazine, 2017: "Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic?"

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/china-ground-z...

On top of that, the egregiously deadly 1918 Spanish Flu, and numerous other viral epidemics, have historically come from China.

National Geographic, 2014: "1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say"

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/1/140123-spanis...

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#52

Post by jshevek »

munk-a wrote: post #44
jshevek wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "China is responsible for this whole thing" This is actually pretty racist China is in fact responsible for the global pandemic. How is this racist?

Because it isn't a fact and is downright false. China isn't great for a number of reasons and their suppression of information may have made this worse but blaming them wholesale for this outbreak is just silly.

Did you think I said exclusively responsible for each step?

Also, do you have any defense for claiming this is racist?

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#53

Post by lukifer »

thedance wrote: post #34
lukifer wrote: post #17

I find it curious that in our current political climate / party system, liberals seem to be more okay with mandatory lockdown procedures, whereas conservatives are pushing back. The latter may be partially due to prior ideological commitments [0], but it's also somewhat counter-intuitive considering the known correlation between authoritarianism and germaphobia. It may be that our two-party dynamic, being focused pri…

Merely exercising state powers is not authoritarianism. There are other necessary aspects that must exist. If a popularly-elected government orders a curfew that is not necessarily authoritarianism.

It's a semantic argument, but I generally agree. I'd say authoritarianism is an extremist endpoint on a spectrum. It's become a dirty word for obvious reasons, but I'm using the term in a relatively value-neutral / non-pejorative sense.

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#54

Post by jshevek »

munk-a wrote: post #42
MikeAmelung wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a good thing there is no history before the coronavirus. Not to mention, the most authoritarian large country, China, is responsible for this whole thing.

> China, is responsible for this whole thing. Please leave the racism at the door. China didn't develop or intentionally spread anything and this whole "chinese virus" meme just needs to die already. Even Fox seems to have abandoned it.

>> China, is responsible for this whole thing.

>Please leave the racism at the door.

Making spurious accusations of racism does not help the conversation.

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#55

Post by jeffdavis »

netcan wrote: post #45
conjectures wrote: post #24

This is junk. Possibly even a case study exemplar of spurious correlations. Take a small set of units (high false positive rate, inter alia). Take some vaguely relevant sounding metrics (entry point for p-hacking). Does a bunch of regressions. Here's the next paper from the group: Distance from equator is predictive of authoritarianism. The more constant daily cycle causes a yearning for rigid routines, predisposing…

Whatever the specific case here, I think we're hitting some sort of epistemological point with after-the-fact data analysis. Pseudoscience, basically. I realise that the term is inflammatory but ultimately it comes down to some fundamentals. There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them. Testability is a fundamental. Untestable theories are…

"There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them."

Exactly.

There's something that's always bothered me about the "evolution by natural selection is science and everyone who doesn't immediately buy into every aspect of it is an idiot".

I personally believe in evolution. It probably makes quite a few good predictions. And I'm sure some experiments have rigor.

But a lot of it seems pretty untestable. Add a stress to a population, and it will either die off or evolve to improve fitness. If it dies off, does that contradict the theory because no evolution happened? If it evolves, how much will it evolve? Will the population reach a smaller equilibrium, larger, or the same? Does any change count as "evolution" or is someone quantifying which ones actually improve fitness? What about changes that don't seem obviously connected to fitness, like ridiculous peacock feathers, would those be predicted? Are we coming up with falsifiable predictions before the tests, or just explanations afterward?

I'm sure someone with more knowledge of the field has answers to all of these questions. But my guess is that they are more nuanced than the "evolution is science and if you question any aspect you are an idiot".

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#56

Post by lukifer »

clairity wrote: post #35
lukifer wrote: post #17

I find it curious that in our current political climate / party system, liberals seem to be more okay with mandatory lockdown procedures, whereas conservatives are pushing back. The latter may be partially due to prior ideological commitments [0], but it's also somewhat counter-intuitive considering the known correlation between authoritarianism and germaphobia. It may be that our two-party dynamic, being focused pri…

restating a prior sentiment: such dichotomies--left/right, authoritarian/libertarian--and their cross-products are cognitive traps. they inhibit understanding and obscure solution pathways. so don't worry about the axis affiliations and critique the ideas themselves (as you imply you already do by not judging a priori ). fear-driven decision environments (as with the current pandemic) are ripe for power seizures (eve…

> left/right, authoritarian/libertarian--and their cross-products are cognitive traps

No dispute. It's a classic leaky-abstraction problem; some models can be helpful in reasoning, but they're always imperfect at describing messy complex reality. (While it too is imperfect, I'm rather fond of the 8-axis political compass! [0])

A lot of our weird tribal coalitions are byproducts of a First-Past-The-Post voting system, which necessarily results in two parties, game-theoretically. IMO there is no more urgent policy issue than electoral reform, to something like Ranked Choice or Approval, so that our representatives are more reflective of our preferences.

> fear-driven decision environments (as with the current pandemic) is ripe for power seizures

This is true; I'm a big fan of Chomsky's admonition that "the burden of proof is on state power to justify itself". While I'm grateful for how many people are doing the right thing voluntarily (I'm genuinely surprised at the trust of citizens in science, at least in my neck of the woods), I do think a pandemic is a situation where judicious use of state power can be justified (forbidding gatherings over N people, for instance). It's a balancing act, and we must be very vigilant to see that "emergency" powers do not persist indefinitely, as they so often do (Patriot Act, etc).

[0] https://8values.github.io/

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#57

Post by jshevek »

kazinator wrote: post #51
munk-a wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it isn't a fact and is downright false. China isn't great for a number of reasons and their suppression of information may have made this worse but blaming them wholesale for this outbreak is just silly.

The pandemic is the result of unsafe handling of infected meat in in China. It had to cross the Chinese border in order to be present elsewhere. Moreover, it was predicted that such a pandemic would start in China, for exactly the reasons that it happened, yet China did nothing to prevent it. Smithsonian Magazine, 2017: "Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic?" https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/china-…

Thank you. We can't solve a problem if we cannot discuss it accurately. The Chinese regime is invested in controlling the narrative, and is taking advantage of our deep concerns about racism to convince people to assist them in that control.

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#58

Post by [deleted] »

jshevek wrote: post #57
kazinator wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pandemic is the result of unsafe handling of infected meat in in China. It had to cross the Chinese border in order to be present elsewhere. Moreover, it was predicted that such a pandemic would start in China, for exactly the reasons that it happened, yet China did nothing to prevent it. Smithsonian Magazine, 2017: "Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic?" https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/china-…

Thank you. We can't solve a problem if we cannot discuss it accurately. The Chinese regime is invested in controlling the narrative, and is taking advantage of our deep concerns about racism to convince people to assist them in that control.

[deleted]

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#59

Post by kingbirdy »

thedudeabides5 wrote: post #46
conjectures wrote: post #24

This is junk. Possibly even a case study exemplar of spurious correlations. Take a small set of units (high false positive rate, inter alia). Take some vaguely relevant sounding metrics (entry point for p-hacking). Does a bunch of regressions. Here's the next paper from the group: Distance from equator is predictive of authoritarianism. The more constant daily cycle causes a yearning for rigid routines, predisposing…

Yup, or maybe it's the same "Global North" vs "Global South" thing where the rich countries of the world are predominantly in the temperate north. There's just not that much land in the temperate south. In the middle you have the Caribbean/Northern Latin America, Central Africa and then like Indonesia out in Asia. A lot of warm, wet places with lots of history of malaria, other parasites, and terrible economic develo…

> What's interesting and cuts the other way right now is the small evidence that warmer and wetter makes COVID less infectious/effective. Have yet to see a good reason 'why' that's the case here

My understanding is that coronaviruses such as the SARS-CoV family or influenza die more quickly in warmer, more humid conditions. Some sources:

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-se...

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#60

Post by [deleted] »

lukifer wrote: post #17

I find it curious that in our current political climate / party system, liberals seem to be more okay with mandatory lockdown procedures, whereas conservatives are pushing back. The latter may be partially due to prior ideological commitments [0], but it's also somewhat counter-intuitive considering the known correlation between authoritarianism and germaphobia. It may be that our two-party dynamic, being focused pri…

[deleted]
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