This is your brain on a crashing stock market • Hacker News Board

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#51

Post by ruste » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:20 PM UTC

throwaway_Bees wrote: post #31

Clearly not the brains of those certain congressmen and women that sold off before the crash...not to mention their constituents they likely gave the tip to while maintaining a different political posture publicly. Curious what kinds of bucket loads of cash they made and continue to make shorting with continued access to inside info including classified intelligence.

Okay, really though, what information did they have access to that wasn't publicly available already? It's one thing to trade on the knowledge of a bill or piece of legislation that you're voting on, especially if you're a deciding vote, but unless I'm misunderstanding that didn't happen here. It doesn't seem like they had any information that wasn't public knowledge at that point. The whole economy was just slow to react to this. I've been paying attention to coronavirus news and honestly would have sold around the time they did had I had any exposure at the time. I get that it's easy to be mad about and makes a good headline, but I just don't see it. Maybe I'm just out of the loop though.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#52

Post by davidw » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:20 PM UTC

azinman2 wrote: post #32

davidw wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd focus on the immediate needs like food and rent and let stocks take care of themselves once things are better. Food and rent are a much more real and present anxiety than stock prices, even if the latter certainly does affect the 'mood'.

Except if you’re unemployed, you might have to sell stock to focus on food and rent.

Uh, most of those people don't have stocks in the first place.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#53

Post by munk-a » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:21 PM UTC

gchokov wrote: post #40

qntty wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My investment in 100 pallets of toilet paper isn't crashing

Bad investment. For this kind of money you'd buy a japanese bidet, with buttons all in japanese, so that you are constantly entertained.

As an aside, hooking a hand bidet up to my water line beside the toilet has taught me how extremely cold cold water can be.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#54

Post by munk-a » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

ruste wrote: post #51

throwaway_Bees wrote: post #31

Clearly not the brains of those certain congressmen and women that sold off before the crash...not to mention their constituents they likely gave the tip to while maintaining a different political posture publicly. Curious what kinds of bucket loads of cash they made and continue to make shorting with continued access to inside info including classified intelligence.

Okay, really though, what information did they have access to that wasn't publicly available already? It's one thing to trade on the knowledge of a bill or piece of legislation that you're voting on, especially if you're a deciding vote, but unless I'm misunderstanding that didn't happen here. It doesn't seem like they had any information that wasn't public knowledge at that point. The whole economy was just slow to…

These folks were still actively spinning "Oh don't you worry, golly gee wilikers this will all just blow over and, besides, on April 1st it'll stop being a thing." - while dumping their portfolio. They clearly acted immorally, they also pretty clearly broke a number of laws around senate behavior (insider trading is a thing for senators), and I think one of the best outcomes at the end of this might be forcing all elected officials to commit their assets to blind trusts.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#55

Post by throwaway_Bees » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

stuff4ben wrote: post #44

throwaway_Bees wrote: post #31

Clearly not the brains of those certain congressmen and women that sold off before the crash...not to mention their constituents they likely gave the tip to while maintaining a different political posture publicly. Curious what kinds of bucket loads of cash they made and continue to make shorting with continued access to inside info including classified intelligence.

Was it classified? Did we all not see what happened in China and think it couldn't happen here? People like to knock Burr and all, but I don't think there was anything special he saw that the rest of us didn't see coming. I didn't act, but I'm not going to fault those that did. And what if he did say something to everyone? That would have caused a panic then and there, people would make a run on the banks, and the ma…

Certainly it goes without saying the head of the Senate intelligence committee has access to classified and top secret information.

He sold nearly 100% of his net worth in stocks and his public political position is inconsistent with the sale of the stock which he has at least admitted was influenced by public news reporting. It leaves one to wonder why the public news would guide his financial decisions, when as a Senator he had a different political position. Not to mention its is established he dropped the market crash tip at a $10,000/plate campaign fundraiser dinner.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#56

Post by admiral33 » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

munk-a wrote: post #27

thephyber wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Health includes some component of hope and perception of security. It’s not clear to me that a person living check-to-check in a rented property with no stable income can remain healthy without economic stability. For better or worse, Wall Street news pervades our perception of whether times are good or bad.

I really strongly disagree. This narrative is aggressively pushed and everyone from the president to folks on Wall Street think that market health is everything to everyone, but people with no skin in the game really don't care. A lot of Americans have no idea what a DOW even is and only know the stock market as "that place where folks gamble". Additionally those folks with mutual funds are mostly ignorant to the mar…

You are underestimating the massive amounts of layoffs that have been happening in the past week and a half. That's the market dying. It's not just stocks.

If valuation goes down, that usually means less revenue coming in, which means less money to pay employees, which leads to them getting fired, which leads to less spending, which leads to less revenue going in...

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#57

Post by OJFord » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:27 PM UTC

dwater wrote: post #50

Retric wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, looking at P/E ratios based before COVID most companies only fell to a reasonable level. I’m looking at the market and thinking it’s still a little high. A rising or falling stock market is not inherently good or bad thing. It’s only really relevant as a prediction of future trends.

Yes, I heard a "market analyst" on the radio this morning talking about how the market is probably near the bottom now that COVID19 has been priced in, and it's time to start thinking about economic recovery. Meanwhile, a reasonable analysis of the medical situation in the US leads one to expect there's a lot more downside to be exposed. What will happen to the market when people who thought they had good health cove…

> near the bottom now that COVID19 has been priced in, [...] Meanwhile, a reasonable analysis of the medical situation in the US leads one to expect there's a lot more downside to be exposed.

That's exactly what they mean that's been 'priced in'.

I don't happen to agree, but you can't say 'the situation hasn't been priced in, because the situation is going to get worse', because the whole point of 'pricing in' is that it's taking into account whatever thing we're pricing in, wherever we're going.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#58

Post by munk-a » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:28 PM UTC

dwater wrote: post #50

Retric wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, looking at P/E ratios based before COVID most companies only fell to a reasonable level. I’m looking at the market and thinking it’s still a little high. A rising or falling stock market is not inherently good or bad thing. It’s only really relevant as a prediction of future trends.

Yes, I heard a "market analyst" on the radio this morning talking about how the market is probably near the bottom now that COVID19 has been priced in, and it's time to start thinking about economic recovery. Meanwhile, a reasonable analysis of the medical situation in the US leads one to expect there's a lot more downside to be exposed. What will happen to the market when people who thought they had good health cove…

It's my estimation that farming and food manufacturing sectors will be able to ride out this issue without feeling much hurt, but I think it's too early to definitively say. Right now tech stocks aren't doing terrible but if service companies start actually shuttering their doors then we're in for a lot more market dropping.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#59

Post by azinman2 » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:29 PM UTC

munk-a wrote: post #38

azinman2 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except if you’re unemployed, you might have to sell stock to focus on food and rent.

I'd be concerned for your financial stability if you need to liquidate assets as soon as you might miss out on two weeks' pay. There are a lot of people that will really struggle in the coming weeks or months, but the venn diagram of those folks and people with a significant presence in the stock market is really quite small.

Not sure where you're getting 2 weeks pay from. Many in the professional class will lose their jobs in a contracting market (there will be losers), and finding a new job will take much more than 2 weeks. In the mean time, there's still rent/mortgage to pay amongst other expenses. Not everyone keeps a lot of cash liquid.

There's also a difference between selling some stocks and liquidating your portfolio. It's not all one or the other.

Re: This is your brain on a crashing stock market

#60

Post by throwaway_Bees » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:31 PM UTC

ruste wrote: post #51

throwaway_Bees wrote: post #31

Clearly not the brains of those certain congressmen and women that sold off before the crash...not to mention their constituents they likely gave the tip to while maintaining a different political posture publicly. Curious what kinds of bucket loads of cash they made and continue to make shorting with continued access to inside info including classified intelligence.

Okay, really though, what information did they have access to that wasn't publicly available already? It's one thing to trade on the knowledge of a bill or piece of legislation that you're voting on, especially if you're a deciding vote, but unless I'm misunderstanding that didn't happen here. It doesn't seem like they had any information that wasn't public knowledge at that point. The whole economy was just slow to…

>what information did they have access to that wasn't publicly available already?

Both classified and top secret information.

For example, changes to China's production, mobilization, expenditure (sale of stocks, debts, etc...), changes to net imports/decreases in net exports, satellite imagery, State Dept/CIA field officers analysis/reports, etc...