Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#51

Post by joemi » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:40 PM UTC

knocte wrote: post #8

QuesnayJr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will turn that wearing masks has a much bigger effect than anticipated. (I suppose that's a form of social distancing.)

Agree with this. I live in Hong Kong and there was no forced lockdown here either because 95% of the people wear them voluntarily.

It almost certainly has more to do with your society's overall approach to sickness than it does with just masks specifically. Here in NYC, loads of sick people have no qualms with squeezing in between two people on the subway, coughing into the same hand they're about to use to turn a doorknob with, and so on. Wearing masks might help a tiny bit against inconsiderate people like that, but not a lot. I'm sure such inconsiderate people exist in Hong Kong too, but I'd be willing to bet that there are fewer, and that wearing masks is an indicator that more people are actually considerate about their sicknesses in HK than in the US.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#52

Post by exegete » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:41 PM UTC

The number of deaths seems to be tracking with South Korea’s trend [1] while the number of positive tests are much lower [2]. That does seem to indicate the testing is not matching up with South Korea’s at least. 1. https://covid19dashboards.com/compare-country-death-trajecto... 2. https://covid19dashboards.com/compare-country-trajectories/

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#53

Post by saluki » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:41 PM UTC

daxfohl wrote: post #30

I wonder if "no shoes in the house" plays a role.

We don't wear outside shoes in our house. (Midwest US) Not sure it would play a role with viruses but definitely keeps out dirt and other contaminants, just makes for a cleaner environment.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#54

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:41 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #29

Reedx wrote: post #26

Healthier population and strong pre-existing social norms/habits conducive to limiting spread?

Those are definitely some “pros” but a big “con” is they have the oldest general population of any country.

[deleted]

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#55

Post by hkmurakami » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:42 PM UTC

ysw0 wrote: post #38

thelittleone wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent some time in Japan for work and was always amazed how many people had face masks on (even when there is no pandemic) and the prevalent of wearing gloves (driving etc). With my limited time there it seemed to be one of the most proactively sanitary cultures I’ve seen. Also it seemed to me that at business meetings generally people bow instead of shaking hands. And I wonder if this reflects the general approach…

I think this is the case. Japanese (and other East Asians) already have a pre-existing mask culture. Wearing a mask is normal over there and is encouraged. They also do not hug, shake hands and have body contact with does that are not family or close friends. Another big factor is that they tend to follow the rules unlike in Italy or America where social distancing suggestions were not taken seriously by a large chun…

Also generally speaking the culture doesn't have too much "family style" eating habits which helps at the margins.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#56

Post by teddyvangogh » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:43 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #34

bruxis wrote: post #5

> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more . This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception. As a resident, I'm quite concerned ab…

Japan has the oldest population of any country with a median age of almost 50 years old. I can see the virus spreading silently among the young and healthy. But Seattle and Italy have showed us that it’s very clear when the very old start catching it. Doesn’t this suggest that Japan truly isn’t experiencing a wave of silent infections?

Japan is lying. its a cover up.

not the first time they covered something up.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#57

Post by _9ijd » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:43 PM UTC

I’m here in japan and have been trying to find an answer to this for the past week. It has to be the masks.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#58

Post by Reason077 » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:44 PM UTC

nabla9 wrote: post #2

In South Korea epidemic was started with one sick cult member spreading it to wast number of people. In Italy the person who started Lombardy cluster was first asymptomatic for weeks, was later misdiagnosed and spreading the disease in hospital. It seems that the epidemic is starting without similar super-spreaders in Japan. Case fatality deaths to recovered rate in Japan is 18%. In South Korea it's 6.6%. This might…

Notably, there's a big difference between South Korea - which seems to largely have largely gotten the epidemic under control, and Italy where it seems to be totally out of control despite a severe lockdown.

Whats a key difference between South Korea and Italy? Widespread use of face masks.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#59

Post by corpMaverick » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:45 PM UTC

michaf wrote: post #49

tomerico wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extreme testing policies wouldn’t hide exponential growth - if it is growing exponentially, you’d expect the number of people meeting the criteria to also grow exponentially.

If the number of tests administered is the limiting factor, and if you only increase the number of tests linearly in time, then case numbers would grow linear as well.

I suppose that in that case you would see an increase of deaths and also the count of respiratory illnesses(covid-19 missclassified).

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#60

Post by yurlungur » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 6:45 PM UTC

sendos wrote: post #16

People are mentioning this is due to lack of testing, but if that were the case wouldn’t hospitals be overwhelmed like they have been in Italy and elsewhere? Testing or no testing if hospitals run out of ventilators for people in need, or out of masks, that would still happen if the disease was spreading like it does elsewhere

I think due to the nature of (generally) exponential growth, no country can be expected to be able to "cover" a true outbreak. However, it's also true that the spike in cases will only happen in a very short period of time so it's not very informative to look at hospital beds if the peak is not there yet.

That said, I would expect Japan to be further on the growth curve compared to other Western countries, so not sure what's going on especially given the limited information.