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Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

meltingasphalt.com

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Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#51

Post by laputan_machine »

40four wrote: post #24
svachalek wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CDC link is interesting stuff I haven't read before, but where does it say the acceleration phase stops before it reaches a significant percentage of the population? China contained and stopped the virus, it didn't just naturally decelerate.

Yeah, that CDC page is one of the best resources I’ve seen. Explains everyone great detail. I didn’t mean to make it sound like it happens naturally. I imagine it probably only happens through human intervention. It just says ” The duration and severity of each phase can vary depending on the characteristics of the virus and the public health response. So, as we are entering the early stages, the public health respon…

There is nothing more important than human life.

Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#52

Post by laputan_machine »

40four wrote: post #30
40four wrote: post #11

This stuff drives me crazy. I know the author of this (and of the linked Washington Post article) are trying to help people gain clarity, but it worries me that it only serves to accelerate fear and panic. These articles are making it sound as if the exponential part of the curve will just continue on forever until it consumes the whole population. The (self-admittedly) overly simplified simulations aren't helping ei…

Ok, a reply to my own rant, LOL. To be fair, the WaPo article is laced with caveats like ”without any measures to slow it down”, or ”If the number of cases were to continue to double every three days”. But there ARE measures to slow it down, and it certainly WON’T continue to double every three days. This is really my gripe with these articles. I like the tech. The interactive ’simulations’ are cool & fun. But I worr…

The UK government says worst case 80% of people are infected. That is absolute worst case, based on their modelling, so highly unlikely, but it is coming from the Chief Medical Officer himself. It is not panic.

Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#53

Post by Robin_Message »

laputan_machine wrote: post #51
40four wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that CDC page is one of the best resources I’ve seen. Explains everyone great detail. I didn’t mean to make it sound like it happens naturally. I imagine it probably only happens through human intervention. It just says ” The duration and severity of each phase can vary depending on the characteristics of the virus and the public health response. So, as we are entering the early stages, the public health respon…

There is nothing more important than human life.

That is certainly true, but the economy is connected to human life, in obvious (food to eat, medical insurance) and non-obvious ways (e.g. job loss linked to suicide https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/11/unemployment... )

So just stopping economic activity also has health downsides.

Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#54

Post by Consultant32452 »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #48
lostlogin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My favourite cruise ship fiasco this week has been the newly imposed rule in New Zealand - they can’t dock, go away. So hours before the ban was imposed one docked and dumped all it’s passengers in the capital. https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120298962/...

I got some stern comments that "laws should never apply retroactively" for saying this, but I still believe: all those border closings should apply immediately from the second they're announced, and all quarantine requirements for returning passengers should apply retroactively, from a day or two before they were announced. Because the story is the same all over the world. A country announces it'll close the borders…

Kind of related problem... A major city becomes an outbreak hot spot. The city enacts strict quarantine recommendations but they are not enforced by law and domestic travel is still permitted. People then flee the hot spot city and rapidly spread disease to other areas. This was a mistake Italy made that the US is repeating in places like NY, San Francisco, etc.

Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#55

Post by pavas »

40four wrote: post #30
40four wrote: post #11

This stuff drives me crazy. I know the author of this (and of the linked Washington Post article) are trying to help people gain clarity, but it worries me that it only serves to accelerate fear and panic. These articles are making it sound as if the exponential part of the curve will just continue on forever until it consumes the whole population. The (self-admittedly) overly simplified simulations aren't helping ei…

Ok, a reply to my own rant, LOL. To be fair, the WaPo article is laced with caveats like ”without any measures to slow it down”, or ”If the number of cases were to continue to double every three days”. But there ARE measures to slow it down, and it certainly WON’T continue to double every three days. This is really my gripe with these articles. I like the tech. The interactive ’simulations’ are cool & fun. But I worr…

This is assuming that we don't take quick and drastic action.

Which is where we were as a country less than a week ago, and it didn't seem inevitable at the time that we were going to take this as seriously as we should be.

These articles and tools warn of what will happen if we take the wrong path, and if they serve their purpose successfully will look overblown and unnecessarily alarmist once this is over.

Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#56

Post by pbhjpbhj »

wiz21c wrote: post #7

How can I model the type of interaction between people. For example :is school a stronger vector of propagation than workplace ? I ask because everybody in my country talks about what to stop (restaurants, culture,...) but never explain why working is considered less of a problem... (I have my little idea but well, ain't sure)

This https://www.pnas.org/content/116/27/13174 is a good paper, it gives numbers from actual school closures (in Russia), compares with areas where schools weren't closed, creates models for some scenarios too.

It would be interesting, possibly instructive to take a SIMS town and use it to model an epidemic.

Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#57

Post by pbhjpbhj »

baq wrote: post #9
wiz21c wrote: post #7

How can I model the type of interaction between people. For example :is school a stronger vector of propagation than workplace ? I ask because everybody in my country talks about what to stop (restaurants, culture,...) but never explain why working is considered less of a problem... (I have my little idea but well, ain't sure)

when economy shuts down, more people die of malnutrition than of the virus.

Covid19 doesn't seem deadly enough to get us to that stage, thankfully. Unlike MERS/SARS/Ebola.

Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#58

Post by fouc »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #48
lostlogin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My favourite cruise ship fiasco this week has been the newly imposed rule in New Zealand - they can’t dock, go away. So hours before the ban was imposed one docked and dumped all it’s passengers in the capital. https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120298962/...

I got some stern comments that "laws should never apply retroactively" for saying this, but I still believe: all those border closings should apply immediately from the second they're announced, and all quarantine requirements for returning passengers should apply retroactively, from a day or two before they were announced. Because the story is the same all over the world. A country announces it'll close the borders…

The border closings need to give notice, it doesn't really matter if some people notice and respond early to take advantage of the "loophole" because ultimately it's about controlling the spread, not stopping 100% (which is unrealistic)

Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#59

Post by Consultant32452 »

brigandish wrote: post #33
wiz21c wrote: post #7

How can I model the type of interaction between people. For example :is school a stronger vector of propagation than workplace ? I ask because everybody in my country talks about what to stop (restaurants, culture,...) but never explain why working is considered less of a problem... (I have my little idea but well, ain't sure)

Tell a child to stop touching things and see how many things they touch, where they put their fingers, how many times they pick their nose etc and then you'll know. It'll only take a few minutes.

My friend was in an airport recently. A mother dutifully used hand sanitizer on her 3 year old's hands. Within one minute the child had put their hands on every surface within a meter: arm rests, seat cushions, under the seat where the boogers and gum are, the floor, etc.

Re: Outbreak – playable simulations of a disease outbreak

#60

Post by gringoDan »

wiz21c wrote: post #7

How can I model the type of interaction between people. For example :is school a stronger vector of propagation than workplace ? I ask because everybody in my country talks about what to stop (restaurants, culture,...) but never explain why working is considered less of a problem... (I have my little idea but well, ain't sure)

Apparently school closures work very well because it also forces adults to stay home from work to take care of their children.

Source: https://samharris.org/podcasts/190-respond-coronavirus/

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