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Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

arstechnica.com

51–60 of 351 posts

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#51
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Next week, Musks inbox is flooded with "Weld 28467 is looking slightly bubbly. It'll probably be okay, but wanted to pass the buck to you".

That was my first thought as well - how does the spiritus movens behind both Tesla and SpaceX have the bandwidth to pull off that level of (micro)management?

He doesn't, plain and simple. So either it is propaganda or dilution or hybris. Probably a combination of all three.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#52

Humans are not biologically adapted to surviving on Mars, and for that reason, any settlement to Mars is bound to fail in the long term.

Humans are not adapted to live in space either. But because of a couple brave people, we now know a little about how to counteract zero gravity's degradation on the body (Bone and muscle loss -> stricter workout regiment). Bound to fail in the long term is quite the statement to make given our ability to build tools based on data that could increase our chance of survival.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#53
post #28

Excerpt: "Just iterate, baby" "I’ve spoken with plenty of the earliest engineers who worked at SpaceX, and almost all of them have noted that Musk tackles the hardest engineering problems first. For Mars, there will be so many logistical things to make it all work, from power on the surface to scratching out a living to adapting to its extreme climate. But Musk believes that the initial, hardest step is building a re…

> for the extremely hard problem of getting a super-large vehicle out of Earth’s gravity well into orbit Why does it need to be super-large? To simulate gravity?

Basically to drive down the cost of payload mass as much as possible. First you have to build a lot of rocket to get anything up into space. If it only launches 1kg of payload, that's going to be a very expensive kilogram. As you continue to scale the rocket up, assuming you can design for a decent payload ratio, the amount of cargo capacity increases and the cost per kilogram drops.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#54

Humans are not biologically adapted to surviving on Mars, and for that reason, any settlement to Mars is bound to fail in the long term.

The alternative is we either go extinct on earth or find another earth-like planet to go to, which won't have humans on in and may not be able to support us any better than mars

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#55
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for the extremely hard problem of getting a super-large vehicle out of Earth’s gravity well into orbit Why does it need to be super-large? To simulate gravity?

>Why does it need to be super-large? To simulate gravity? Rocket efficiency scales infinitely with size.

The rocket equation [0] disagrees: "In what has been called 'the tyranny of the rocket equation', there is a limit to the amount of payload that the rocket can carry, as higher amounts of propellant increment the overall weight, and thus also increase the fuel consumption"

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#56
The pace of innovation here is absolutely ludicrous. They designed and built a custom welding machine _and_ a custom x-ray machine for building tank domes in four weeks? They've gone from a production rate of one prototype in 8 months to one prototype every 2 weeks in less than a year. They doubled the size of their workforce in less than 48 hours. I'm gonna have to agree with the article author here: this is absolutely mad.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#57
Slightly off-topic but apart from Mars-related things, I don't think are appreciating how big of a deal Starship/Super Heavy will be.

Because space is hard and expensive, when designing payloads, they also have to be over-engineered to make sure you're getting the most out of your ride, which then makes the rockets over-engineered and expensive to make sure they don't blow up carrying the precious cargo. It's a positive feedback loop. So we end up with incredible telescopes like Hubble or James Webb, but it's literally a once-in-a-generation event. There's no tolerance for failure, so budgets and timelines ballon.

What if you knew you could get a cheap ride anywhere anytime? Why not mass-produce slightly lower quality telescopes instead of these masterpieces. The JWST's successor is LUVOIR, slated for sometime in the 2040s (!!), why not build a dozens JWST-like telescopes and use interferometry to build giant telescopes larger than the earth with higher light-gathering ability than even ground-based telescopes? This is the technique used by Event Horizon Telescope to capture the first picture of a black hole last year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Very-long-baseline_interferome...

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#58

I don't know about the Starship a week but he definitely fulfils his hyperbolic bullshit per day quota. And it's mostly "our" fault, "we" let him getaway with so much shit ( from market manipulation to criminal workplace offences ) because he entertains our egos with the promise of getting all our problems solved ( which is ridiculous at so many levels ). OK let's pretend Elon builds one Starship a week, at which cos…

The only reason why we have the prosperity that we have today is because inventive people built things that people like you said were not worth the time.

>The only reason why we have the prosperity that we have today is because inventive people built things that people like you said were not worth the time.

Does it? Do you have some examples? As far as I can tell, societal progress moves slowly and incrementally, with many people contributing by building on the works of others.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why does it need to be super-large? To simulate gravity? Rocket efficiency scales infinitely with size.

The rocket equation [0] disagrees: "In what has been called 'the tyranny of the rocket equation', there is a limit to the amount of payload that the rocket can carry, as higher amounts of propellant increment the overall weight, and thus also increase the fuel consumption" [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation

[deleted]

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#60
post #45
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Musk has come to believe the only way to realistically achieve this is through trial and error, by iterating closer and closer to the right design" This how everything is made. Revolutionary.

No, not in aerospace. The common approach is to spend years designing, simulating, and then actual tests come at the very end, and sometimes you don't even test because you can't or it would be too expensive. That's what Boeing are doing with their own rockets; Mars missions until now didn't really go through an iterative process; satellites are usually manufactured only by one and they better work once in orbit.

> years designing, simulating

So trial and error, but virtually.

You're telling me we went to the moon on the first try? We went into space on the first try? The Wright brothers were successful on their first flight?

No, it was all trial and error.

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