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How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

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Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#51
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can they at this point? It seems like their authority has been emasculated.

I don't understand what you mean by this.

"Emasculated" is a bizarre word to use, but I assume it's in reference to Trump putting Pence, rather than anyone at the CDC or HHS, in charge of official messaging around COVID-19.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#52
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add a little context: I’m currently scheduled to attend a ~50000 attendee international conference in the U.S. My employer has sponsored - and I’m not in a position to refuse to attend (yet). The host org is standing firm on pushing forward as scheduled, but has released a bunch of PR B.S. communications about hand sanitizer, face masks, etc. being provided and quarantine of symptomatic individuals at the event (n…

I’ve been seeing quite a lot of major conferences being cancelled and/or large companies deciding not to attend. In many cases they’ve waited as long as possible before officially cancelling to see if things improve. I would think you have the right to express your concerns and decide not to attend - if enough people do the same, the event may be postponed or cancelled.

They (HIMSS PR) blocked me for asking about the preparedness plan (which is completely inadequate) on Twitter... maybe I should have asked via email, but it seemed like a conversation that the community would have interest in. They seem to be in complete “protect sunk costs at all measures” mode.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#53
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can they at this point? It seems like their authority has been emasculated.

I don't understand what you mean by this.

VP Pence has been given veto authority over all messaging, and the CDC’s funding in this area was gutted early in the administration.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#54
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add a little context: I’m currently scheduled to attend a ~50000 attendee international conference in the U.S. My employer has sponsored - and I’m not in a position to refuse to attend (yet). The host org is standing firm on pushing forward as scheduled, but has released a bunch of PR B.S. communications about hand sanitizer, face masks, etc. being provided and quarantine of symptomatic individuals at the event (n…

Panic is unwarranted. On the cruise ship, which is known for being full of old people, there were 3 deaths out of ~750 known cases. Almost everyone dying so far has had another medical issue or been very old. Reports now say that many people testing positive have no symptoms at all and aren't getting sick. There have been zero deaths of children so far, which is unlike the flu. The youngest death was in his mid 30s.…

Quick fact check: first of all, 3 deaths out of 750 isn't relevant without knowing the timeline of transmission, as most deaths occur 3-4 weeks post infection.

Second, there have deaths of people in there 20's a casual google search of 'youngest death coronavirus' yields that information as the first result.

And if you believe every young death (or every death) in Hubei province is being publicized, you haven't been paying attention.

I do agree that it's important not to panic, but we absolutely should be taking social distancing measures to reduce the r0.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#55

For those of you reading this from the bay area, we already have suspected community transmission 50 miles away, in a town with a lot of people who commute to the Bay. If it's easy for you to work from home, consider doing so, giving explicit permission to your reports to do so, and asking your manager to give permission to their reports to do so. We're fortunate to be in an industry where WFH has relatively little c…

I'm not sure why officials haven't come out suggesting things like this. And to avoid non-mandatory travel. It's probably a bit late for this stuff from a containment perspective. But it would help reduce the r0. Speaking personally, I have to decide by mid March if we should take our trip to Legoland in San Diego. Right now I'm leaning towards "no". And I don't imagine the outlook will be much better in just 2 weeks…

Because they're balancing being extra-cautious with the serious risks of overreacting.

The worst case scenario right now is that some people might lose their grandparents a couple years early -- which is obviously incredibly sad, but also not something worth crashing the world economy over.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#56
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add a little context: I’m currently scheduled to attend a ~50000 attendee international conference in the U.S. My employer has sponsored - and I’m not in a position to refuse to attend (yet). The host org is standing firm on pushing forward as scheduled, but has released a bunch of PR B.S. communications about hand sanitizer, face masks, etc. being provided and quarantine of symptomatic individuals at the event (n…

Panic is unwarranted. On the cruise ship, which is known for being full of old people, there were 3 deaths out of ~750 known cases. Almost everyone dying so far has had another medical issue or been very old. Reports now say that many people testing positive have no symptoms at all and aren't getting sick. There have been zero deaths of children so far, which is unlike the flu. The youngest death was in his mid 30s.…

So... if we’re not in the high mortality demographic we should just engage in activities that could be a catalyst for pandemic and significant loss of life? Not sure I follow your thinking.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#57

> In 1918, medicine had barely become modern; some scientists still believed “miasma” accounted for influenza’s spread. Does anyone know where I can learn more about the "miasma" model of disease? Whenever I'm looking up old plagues / diseases / etc. etc., they bring up the "miasma" model. But what is the miasma theory (or pseudo-science?) that people used to believe in? And how does it differ from our modern germ th…

I dislike this idea of calling theories that ended up being wrong as "pseudo-science". Not all wrong ideas were just random ramblings. Miasma Theory came from imperfect knowledge and not understanding the mechanisms of some of their observations. If you read the debates on how miasma works, you can totally see reasonable rational arguments if you strip away a few generations of scientific knowledge.

My understanding is that the term 'pseudo-science' refers to theories that people pretend have scientific backing but really don't, as opposed to theories that just eventually prove to be false. So I might claim that homeopathy is based on the principle of 'like-heals-like' and claim that it is based in science, but in reality there is no scientific evidence to back that idea and so homeopathy would then be pseudo-science.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#58
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add a little context: I’m currently scheduled to attend a ~50000 attendee international conference in the U.S. My employer has sponsored - and I’m not in a position to refuse to attend (yet). The host org is standing firm on pushing forward as scheduled, but has released a bunch of PR B.S. communications about hand sanitizer, face masks, etc. being provided and quarantine of symptomatic individuals at the event (n…

Panic is unwarranted. On the cruise ship, which is known for being full of old people, there were 3 deaths out of ~750 known cases. Almost everyone dying so far has had another medical issue or been very old. Reports now say that many people testing positive have no symptoms at all and aren't getting sick. There have been zero deaths of children so far, which is unlike the flu. The youngest death was in his mid 30s.…

> Almost everyone dying so far has had another medical issue or been very old

I agree with not fomenting panic. However, "had another medical issue" means diabetes, which alone covers 11% of the US population, and has so far been associated with a mortality rate of about 8%. This likely includes at least one family member in more or less every US family.

It's entirely reasonable to view that as a compelling reason to avoid things like major conferences with significant inter- and trans-national mass transit.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#59

> In 1918, medicine had barely become modern; some scientists still believed “miasma” accounted for influenza’s spread. Does anyone know where I can learn more about the "miasma" model of disease? Whenever I'm looking up old plagues / diseases / etc. etc., they bring up the "miasma" model. But what is the miasma theory (or pseudo-science?) that people used to believe in? And how does it differ from our modern germ th…

I dislike this idea of calling theories that ended up being wrong as "pseudo-science". Not all wrong ideas were just random ramblings. Miasma Theory came from imperfect knowledge and not understanding the mechanisms of some of their observations. If you read the debates on how miasma works, you can totally see reasonable rational arguments if you strip away a few generations of scientific knowledge.

I agree. It becomes pseudoscience when it contradicts existing scientific knowledge without any rationale or explicitly comes from a a rejection of the scientific method. There's a difference between being pseudoscientific and being wrong. A lot of hypothesis about how the world works today, including some seemingly strong beliefs backed by pots of evidence, will be found to be wrong or incomplete as we move forward and develop better tools and science.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#60

For those of you reading this from the bay area, we already have suspected community transmission 50 miles away, in a town with a lot of people who commute to the Bay. If it's easy for you to work from home, consider doing so, giving explicit permission to your reports to do so, and asking your manager to give permission to their reports to do so. We're fortunate to be in an industry where WFH has relatively little c…

A friend of mine flew back from Japan yesterday. They were involved with providing food to the passengers quarantined on the Diamond Princess. He worked about an hour away from the cruise ship.

This friend called the Center for Disease Control before flying back and asked them if he should do anything, like maybe quarantine himself in his home; they said no. No one questioned him when be boarded the plane to the states. When he left the plane he was asked if he had traveled to China and he said no; they waved him through.

My friend feels reasonable safe, their thinking was is that since they worked a good distance from the cruise ship, they should be fine. They are quarantining themselves for the two weeks, on their own, out of their own personal sense of caution.

IMHO, the CDC should be more careful. Japan continues to see more cases show up.[1] It doesn't seem unreasonable to me that the CDC should quarantine everyone coming from Yokohoma, Japan. Especially if their work was somehow related to the quarantined cruise ship.

Science reported three days ago[0] that maybe people who directly interacted with the cruise ship maybe weren't careful enough...

"Normally, those supporting a quarantine don’t have to be quarantined themselves, presuming they use personal protection equipment (PPE)—masks, gloves, goggles, and gowns. 'But the available evidence suggests that PPE was not appropriately used on board,' Hunter says. He believes the officers who worked onboard the Diamond Princess should have been quarantined once the problems with infection control came to light. If such lax management had resulted in the infection of government officials in the United Kingdom, 'I suspect criminal proceedings would follow,' Hunter says."

[0]: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/coronavirus-infectio...

[1]: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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