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What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

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Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#51

Post by karatestomp »

oceanghost wrote: post #22
droithomme wrote: post #4

I got randomly selected for the long one in 2010. There were several questions I was not able to answer but providing incorrect information is a crime and not answering is a crime. So I did nothing. They sent one or two threatening follow ups. Then an in-person enumerator showed up and ran me through the short-form questions only, which was fine.

I had the same thing happen. I sat down to do the long-form and it asked fairly invasive questions like what chronic diseases I had, and IIRC even how many sexual partners I'd had. I pitched the thing, but they came to the door several times until I did the short-form.

Oof, yeah, I'm not filling out something that invasive. They can serve a warrant to Google if they need info like that about me.

Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#52

Post by ikeboy »

anadem wrote: post #47
lsiebert wrote: post #26

This is worth quoting here IMHO: "However, even if you don't get fined for not filling out the census form, there are some good reasons you should do it anyway. Seats in the House of Representatives seats are apportioned by population, with the most populous states receiving the most seats. Federal and state governments rely on census data to budget for social welfare programs that assist the poor, elderly, disabled…

> not filling out the census form may cost you something in the long run. On the average each uncounted person loses their district $2,000 per year in federal payments (i.e. tax money returning to the district). Losing $20,000 over the ten years between censuses is a big deal for school and other program funding. PLEASE BE COUNTED!

Got a citation for that? You're suggesting $600B+ is allocated by the federal government based on census numbers?

Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#53

Post by onionisafruit »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #33
lsiebert wrote: post #26

This is worth quoting here IMHO: "However, even if you don't get fined for not filling out the census form, there are some good reasons you should do it anyway. Seats in the House of Representatives seats are apportioned by population, with the most populous states receiving the most seats. Federal and state governments rely on census data to budget for social welfare programs that assist the poor, elderly, disabled…

>Seats in the House of Representatives seats are apportioned by population, with the most populous states receiving the most seats. People in the minority party in solidly red/blue states would want their state to lose votes in order to increase the representation of their party.

Not everything is about national politics. I live in a Republican controlled state, and even though I’m not a Republican, I want us to be represented and properly funded. So I will fill out my census form. Just because I don’t have the same political views as my neighbors doesn’t mean I want to disenfranchise them (and myself while I’m at it).

Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#54

Post by thechao »

ajross wrote: post #49
dmurray wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are the apportionments done based on the number of census forms returned, though, or based on the Census Bureau's best estimate of population? Presumably the Bureau have a better guess than that, using an adjustment factor that could be different for each state.

Apportionment is based on direct census count only. Indeed there is better science available for population estimation (and IIRC some of it indeed gets done by the Census Bureau's reporting), but that's not how the law was written.

It's called the "American Community Survey" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Community_Survey). It's a great piece of high-quality, modern, scientifically valid demographic work that the C.B. does between its enforced stints with 18th c. `demographicology' that the constitution requires.

Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#55

Post by ken »

The US census was infamously used to assist in rounding up Americans of specific ethnic backgrounds for concentration camps.

It would go a long way to easing people’s minds if they had some way to guarantee that this could not happen again. I realize there is value in gathering attributes beyond just “one person”, but storing these attributes in a way that can be connected to addresses seems seriously problematic.

Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#56

Post by mr_toad »

hurricanetc wrote: post #45
stonogo wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Counting everyone in the country" is one aspect of the census effort. Looking at where they live, what they do for a living, and if they live alone or with others are other aspects. In the US, when someone moves from one state to another, they're not required to notify the US government in any way. Most states have rules about getting your vehicles licensed within a certain time frame after settling in a state, or r…

The idea that the US federal government doesn’t know where people are and who they are talking to is hilarious. We have the biggest spying apparatus in human history. This is 100% political.

The census predates mass surveillance. The bureaucracy changes slowly.

I doubt the agencies with the surveillance data want to share it.

The data isn’t a count of people. It’s one record per conversation, or whatever. It’s probably riddled with errors and duplicates, incorrect names, dates of birth etc. It probably misses a lot of people (like children). Getting a unique count of individuals, with accurate addresses and demographic information would be a Sisyphean task.

Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#57

Post by onionisafruit »

rolleiflex wrote: post #46
danso wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide any technical detail as to how a real-time count of every person is possible? What databases are used to track births and deaths and emigration in real time? How about income/housing/education characteristics? Are you a Turkish citizen? If so, are you able to query the government for the exact population count right now?

The population counts are released yearly and I believe you can do what is the Turkish version of FOIA request to get the live count, though don’t quote me on the latter part. Turkey has a central database, called TCKN, that everyone is assigned by birth or by getting an immigration visa. The births and deaths are tracked by hospitals and the Revenue Service. Income / education / housing - all of these are tracked by…

How do they count undocumented immigrants? If you don’t go to school or have an “on the books” job, are you going to show up in the count?

Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#58

Post by vilhelm_s »

ikeboy wrote: post #52
anadem wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not filling out the census form may cost you something in the long run. On the average each uncounted person loses their district $2,000 per year in federal payments (i.e. tax money returning to the district). Losing $20,000 over the ten years between censuses is a big deal for school and other program funding. PLEASE BE COUNTED!

Got a citation for that? You're suggesting $600B+ is allocated by the federal government based on census numbers?

https://gwipp.gwu.edu/counting-dollars-2020-role-decennial-c...

They calculate that in 2017 there were $1,504,191,364,000 in Federal spending guided by the census numbers, which is about $4,600 per capita.

In this paper [1] they look at some specific programs:

> Five grant programs administered by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) use the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP), based on the 2010 Decennial Census population count, to determine reimbursements to and payments from each state government (totaling $286.1 billion in Fiscal Year 2015). The five FMAP-guided programs are Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, Title IV-E Foster Care, Title IV-E Adoption Assistance, and the Child Care and Development Fund. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2015, reimbursements to and payments from state governments under these five programs totaled $286.1 billion (48.1% of all federal grants to states and 13.0% of all state budgets).In FY2015, 37 states forfeited a measurable amount of funds for each person missed in the 2010 Census.

> Among these 37 states, the median FY2015 loss per person missed in the 2010 Census was $1,091. FY2015 loss per person missed ranged from $533 for Utah to $2,309 for Vermont. The median state is Tennessee.

[1] https://gwipp.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs2181/f/downloads/G...

Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#59

Post by Fezzik »

ikeboy wrote: post #52
anadem wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not filling out the census form may cost you something in the long run. On the average each uncounted person loses their district $2,000 per year in federal payments (i.e. tax money returning to the district). Losing $20,000 over the ten years between censuses is a big deal for school and other program funding. PLEASE BE COUNTED!

Got a citation for that? You're suggesting $600B+ is allocated by the federal government based on census numbers?

It certainly seems possible. That’s not even 7% of the annual budget. We spend a lot of money. Can’t find a citation on my phone though.

Re: What happens if I don't fill out my census form? (2019)

#60

Post by [deleted] »

ikeboy wrote: post #52
anadem wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not filling out the census form may cost you something in the long run. On the average each uncounted person loses their district $2,000 per year in federal payments (i.e. tax money returning to the district). Losing $20,000 over the ten years between censuses is a big deal for school and other program funding. PLEASE BE COUNTED!

Got a citation for that? You're suggesting $600B+ is allocated by the federal government based on census numbers?

[deleted]
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