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Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

ir.tesla.com

51–60 of 346 posts

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#51
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Y will mostly cannibalize 3 sales, but will be good for a few quarters’ pop.

I thought the Y was most similar to the X? Am I missing something?

It's similar to a 3 and the X. Basically, the question is whether there are a large number of customers not buying Tesla's because an affordable model without 7 seats doesn't exist. From there, you have to question how many people who are currently deciding on 3s would decide to buy Ys.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#53
post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

Short squeeze I think.

this. It's still one of the most, if not the most shorted stock. As long as people keep shorting, the squeezes will keep propelling the stock higher, regardless of fundamentals. 1 week ago you might think it's overvalued and the meltup's run its course, but look where it's at AH today.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#54
post #50
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess they could also have lost an almost equally insane amount if things had gone south?

No... I wouldn't consider $500 in capital losses an "equally insane amount"...

I thought that you can only have such high leverage if you bought super meta products that expose risk, meaning you borrow money for that bet and which you‘d have to pay back if the hoped-for increase doesn’t come.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#55
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I thought the Y was most similar to the X? IMO, all Tesla vehicles (so far) are pretty similar to each other. On the one hand, Y is a less expensive X. On the other hand, Y is a bigger 3 with a hatch back. I'm not an expert in automotive consumer behavior, but I have to imagine that Y will cannibalize some amount of 3 sales. I also don't think that will matter that much - there is so much demand for Tesla vehicles…

Also, Ys are more expensive, meaning an increased bottomline if they really displace 3s.

Increasing the top line, not necessarily bottom line. There is nothing to indicate that Ys have better margins than 3s.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#56
post #47
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think so too, and I think they know that. It sounds like they are "only" planning to ramp US production from the current rate of ~400k total units per year to just over 500k per year. Of course, with China coming online, that still leaves a net increase. It sounds like they may have backed away from some of the more extreme high end projections for the Y. It looks like worldwide production may double within 1-2 yea…

According to their own figures, they have capacity to produce 650K, but only project 500K deliveries next year. Why is that?

Error margin

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#57
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the Y was most similar to the X? Am I missing something?

Its pretty in between as far as size goes. But it shares many parts with the 3 and most importantly is much closer to the 3 on price. The 3 Dual Motor Long Range is about $48k and the Y is $50k. The X Dual Motor Long Range is $80k. So if it will probably take some sales from both the 3 and X. But X sales aren't very significant compared to 3 sales anyway.

In terms of margin the X sales are still significant. S/X sales are still the only thing that provides any consistent profit to Tesla.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#58
post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

Stocks sometimes aren't rational. It's just speculation/hype.

I agree with your statement, but maybe it's more accurate to say its speculation/hype about future return on investment. I think the real question (for me at least) is whether that return on investment is in share price increase (like Amazon) or in dividends and the value of assets (like the majority of other public companies).

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#60
post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

I dunno. My bullish view has more to do with Tesla using the vehicle market as an entry point to the broader energy market.

If the Tesla cars start throwing off profit and make the company self-sustaining, their vertically-integrated energy thing opens the kind of insanely huge global energy market. They're not just going to eat Ford's lunch - but also Chevron, Saudi Aramco and your local energy company.

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