Coronavirus Real Time Map • Hacker News Board

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#51

Post by infinity0 » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 1:33 PM UTC

99052882514569 wrote: post #45

infinity0 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about a 99.99% reduction in travel? Wuhan has 11 million and 1% of that is 100k, I'd imagine the quarantine is more successful than preventing 100k people from travelling.

I think their point is that with such a high reproduction number, the impact of anyone slipping through is amplified so much that reduction in travel alone will not do much to stop the spread.

> reduction in travel alone will not do much to stop the spread.

This is exactly what you can't conclude from the analysis that was done, the numbers matter significantly.

If a 99% restriction locally gives a 25% reduction globally, that tells us very little about what happens with a 99.99% restriction, which is probably closer to what has been achieved.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#52

Post by dahfizz » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 1:34 PM UTC

gdfasfklshg4 wrote: post #32

ohitsdom wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> even if half the people get infected You say "even" as if it's a conservative estimate, but to me 50% of the country's population being infected by the same virus sounds extreme. Wouldn't this be on the extreme side?

It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.

Have you ever been in a room or walking down the street and see every other person have a cold? That is extreme.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#53

Post by cthalupa » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 1:40 PM UTC

molteanu wrote: post #37

@mods, there was the news the other day about Kobe's death. It got flagged, and for good reason. Why is this coronavirus stuff not flagged also? There are currently 3 articles on the front page related to this. It just slipped or is there a reason for this?

It's a (mildly) scientific discussion. Lots of medical discussion happens on HN due to their scientific nature.

Kobe's death, while tragic, is more along the lines of current event discussion.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#54

Post by dis-sys » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 1:42 PM UTC

Scarblac wrote: post #47

akmarinov wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.

But that's deaths. Apparently a large part of surviving SARS patients still have significant health problems. And that's a coronavirus too.

That was largely caused by high dose of hormone used during treatment. I can be wrong but hormone is no longer used that often/much in the current outbreak.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#55

Post by tsukurimashou » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 1:48 PM UTC

tictok4 wrote: post #18

tsukurimashou wrote: post #15

I get: Fatal Errors Unable to load https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/content/item... status: 502 d@ https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:112:340 d@ https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:140:425 f@ https://js.arcgis.com/3.31/init.js:145:35 Maybe the load is a bit too heavy for the app at the moment EDIT: after a few attempts I was able to load the map, it is nicely done!

You probably have refer disabled or spoofed. "Fix" that and it may work

yeah no it was just load, otherwise it would not work randomly like that

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#56

Post by brigandish » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 1:53 PM UTC

infinity0 wrote: post #39

lysp wrote: post #35

Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v... Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions > Key findings: > ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating t…

What about a 99.99% reduction in travel? Wuhan has 11 million and 1% of that is 100k, I'd imagine the quarantine is more successful than preventing 100k people from travelling.

Figure 4 in the images from this tweet[1] (taken from the same paper above, page 8) show the effect of a 99% reduction in travel, over 65% of people in cities across China will become infected.

[1] https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#57

Post by Scarblac » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 1:53 PM UTC

dis-sys wrote: post #54

Scarblac wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's deaths. Apparently a large part of surviving SARS patients still have significant health problems. And that's a coronavirus too.

That was largely caused by high dose of hormone used during treatment. I can be wrong but hormone is no longer used that often/much in the current outbreak.

That is helpful to know, thanks.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#58

Post by hanklazard » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 1:55 PM UTC

dahfizz wrote: post #52

gdfasfklshg4 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.

Have you ever been in a room or walking down the street and see every other person have a cold? That is extreme.

Those colds that you’re seeing represent common symptoms of many viruses (metapneumovirus, paraflu, influenza, rhinovirus, RSV, etc, etc ... and many of these have multiple subtypes which can be concurrently circulating). In other words, you’re noticing common symptoms not necessarily the same virus.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#59

Post by kscriby » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 2:08 PM UTC

ShorsHammer wrote: post #50

kscriby wrote: post #41

For those who want something a little more mobile-friendly, we just built a similar map over the weekend: https://coronavirus.app/

Completely offtopic: I'm really impressed that I can get the basic mapping with all javascript turned off. Kudos for that. Half the pages you visit these days can't even show text or pictures without js.

Thanks! With this app, we just wanted to build something really basic that does its job with as little friction as possible, so glad you pointed that out.

Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map

#60

Post by TrickyRick » Tue, Jan 28, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

cthalupa wrote: post #53

molteanu wrote: post #37

@mods, there was the news the other day about Kobe's death. It got flagged, and for good reason. Why is this coronavirus stuff not flagged also? There are currently 3 articles on the front page related to this. It just slipped or is there a reason for this?

It's a (mildly) scientific discussion. Lots of medical discussion happens on HN due to their scientific nature. Kobe's death, while tragic, is more along the lines of current event discussion.

It's related to aviation which always tends to make the front page. While this particular thread I think very much belongs here, there have been a bunch of links to nothing more than news articles over the last few days which are of little interest from a HN perspective.