Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? • Hacker News Board

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#51

Post by glofish » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:05 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #44

glofish wrote: post #42

Considering that Florida is slowly but surely going underwater it is weird to see it as the most popular destination to move to.

Lots of Florida will escape sea level rise, and the benefits (lower cost of living, no state income tax, tropic climate with no snow) can be realized immediately. You care even less if you’re a renter or >10 feet above sea level. Migration numbers don’t lie, lots of folks love Florida, or at least like it enough to move and stay put.

Are you saying that if you are 10 ft above water you'll be fine in Florida even when areas under 10ft flood?

I really doubt that. It is not about actually losing your home, it is about quality of life, the main reason for moving there in the first place.

There will be a big cost of any flooding, borne by all Floridians

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#52

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:06 PM UTC

glofish wrote: post #51

toomuchtodo wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of Florida will escape sea level rise, and the benefits (lower cost of living, no state income tax, tropic climate with no snow) can be realized immediately. You care even less if you’re a renter or >10 feet above sea level. Migration numbers don’t lie, lots of folks love Florida, or at least like it enough to move and stay put.

Are you saying that if you are 10 ft above water you'll be fine in Florida even when areas under 10ft flood? I really doubt that. It is not about actually losing your home, it is about quality of life, the main reason for moving there in the first place. There will be a big cost of any flooding, borne by all Floridians

Yes, and Florida real estate market fundamentals as well as the mortgage bond market and property insurance support my thesis. I specifically paid for sea level rise models before buying Florida real estate, and will likely sell before I die and sea level rise has meaningfully occurred. I-4 and I-75 will be untouched, and other infra is already designed around the Florida environment (hurricanes, high water table). Stay away from the coast, build to current code, and you’ll be fine. Storm surge is your primary coastal concern.

Miami aquifer sea water intrusion is a different issue, but I’m not in Miami. Due to Florida’s population, federal funds are likely to be requested and paid out to mitigate the worst effects. Plenty of water to desal with cheap wind and solar.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#53

Post by sct202 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:06 PM UTC

ourmandave wrote: post #5

The numbers are shown in tables with Net Migration (taxpayers and dependents) and their Average Income of departing taxpayers. So 75,386 (taxpayers and dependents) moved from IL to FL and their average income was $135K. That seems to imply that they all took their high paying jobs with them somehow.

So, the guy who sold RxBar ($600m in 2017) moved to Florida from Illinois (Chicago) in this time span, and I'm wondering thinking if that's partly why the Illinois to Florida avg income is so high compared to every other number on the state to state tables.

Edit for additional context, RxBar had no outside funding or venture capital, so that $600m went to the founders and maybe other early employees. https://www.inc.com/robbie-abed/this-chicago-startup-sold-it...

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#54

Post by freehunter » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:08 PM UTC

yboris wrote: post #14

freehunter wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Hemorrhaging” is a pretty common way to describe an exodus of people or money. It’s a common metaphor that’s also used in “stop the bleeding” or the similar “stem the tide”. Business is full of otherwise wildly inappropriate phrases, like “drink the kool-aid” in reference to the mass suicide of nearly 1000 people in the Jonestown cult. I have no idea how that’s considered an appropriate phrase for any situation but…

I think you're right in that it's a common phrase in conversation. It just doesn't seem appropriate for a new outlet that attempts to be more-objective than sensationalist. I do see this is an opinion rather than a regular article, but still ... "Hemorrhaging" evokes memories of bleeding, indicating severe danger. I pay a lot of attention to metaphors after reading "Metaphors We Live By" (an excellent classic book).

No, it’s quite common in all kinds of media outlets. Serious news, sports news, opinion pieces, left wing, right wing, entertainment, startups, investing... you’d be hard pressed to find a news outlet that doesn’t use the word “hemorrhaging” in reference to non-blood things. Most words have more than one meaning, this one included.

Here’s one from Entrepreneur: https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/284063

New York Times article saying companies are hemorrhaging money: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/25/health/antibiotics-new-re...

CBS Sports talking about how a football team is hemorrhaging players: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/cowboys-vs-eagles-injurie...

Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-investors-dont-care-that-sn...

LA Times: https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-bus-ridership-f...

Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/world/pope-laments-hemorrhaging-of-p...

The Motley Fool: https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/07/24/without-nest-alpha...

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#55

Post by jedberg » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

Every person I know who's left California did it because of housing costs (except for one, who did it to get away from "the damn liberal government that wants to take my guns").

We have a major housing cost crisis in this state, as well as a big NIMBY problem. There have been good solutions run up through the state house, that either fail to pass or get so watered down they are no longer effective, in large part because the most liberal parts of the state happen the also be the wealthiest, so they vote against it.

It's one of the few areas in California where the GOP and the Dems agree.

They only want to help poor people if it doesn't affect their property value.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#56

Post by sudosteph » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:18 PM UTC

Native North Carolinian checking in.

I'm from Charlotte and I can honestly say that I grew up with more friends who had parents from New York than from NC. A lot of middle class people from upstate NY settled in Charlotte due to the economic opportunities and weather.

I'd wager that this migration really started about 30 years ago, and we're seeing the numbers increase even further due to network effects. For example, we've got a sizeable community of former Buffalo residents who gather over football games at restaurants that are run by other Buffalo natives.

For what it's worth, New Yorkers seem to be very culturally compatible with North Carolinians, we get along just fine. I feel like I've seen a bit less animosity for New Yorkers in NC than I saw for Californians in Seattle. There are jokes (ie, the town of Cary in the NC Triangle is sometimes said to stand for "Containment Area for Relocated Yankees"), but it never feels like genuine resentment.

I may just be biased though because buffalo-style pizza in particular has spoiled every other style of pizza for me. Please Buffalo peeps: keep coming here and sharing your food culture with us.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#57

Post by jimhefferon » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:20 PM UTC

option wrote: post #25

triceratops wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> $600k avg home price. > homeless encampments on our bike trails These seem linked somehow...

Are they really? An honest question - suppose the housing does a nosedive to 100K. I still find it hard to believe that those living on the streets in tents with no jobs will rush to buy houses. The other category of “invisible” homeless - those living in cars and at friends places/garages will of course benefit if the average price of the housing drops

> Are they really? An honest question

Not an economist. But many of us perceive that in the US today the middle class is contracting. A few people from that class may migrate to the upper class-- good for them-- but probably the overwhelming majority of folks migrate downwards.

So if OP means that in a context where there is a lot of quite expensive real estate you would expect also to find a good number of people who are so marginalized that they are living in their cars or on the streets, then yes, they are linked.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#58

Post by zone411 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:21 PM UTC

glofish wrote: post #48

zone411 wrote: post #30

We made a map using domestic migration data: https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1202655115628466177

the direction (your arrows) are too small and hard to see, yet the most important part of a visualization perhaps put the arrow at the end, that way one can see which connection is a source and which one is a target

The ends are actually pointed towards the destination state. I think the direction is pretty visible once you expand https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ELCwc3xWkAEEbgW?format=jpg&name=... but point taken, thanks.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#59

Post by Ididntdothis » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:25 PM UTC

dfsegoat wrote: post #4

Sonoma County, CA here. We've lost more people from our county than any other in the state between 2017-2018 [1], and it is only continuing. From the few of these people I have spoken with - anecdotally: - None left because of the fire risk, specifically. [though some obviously did - 2] - Most left because of the cost of living: $600k avg home price. - Some also left because of political and human environment: We hav…

I work remotely but just moved to Sonoma county because my partner got a job here. The house prices are really insane. Seems most people here are either rich retirees or people whose families have lived here for a long time and made a ton of money with real estate bought before prices exploded. I don’t see any jobs here that would even remotely justify the house prices. It’s a beautiful area but the economy is pretty weird.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#60

Post by magduf » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

OrangeMango wrote: post #35

blululu wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may be slightly skewed by the effect of retirees (people earn the most before they retire). Illinois has high taxes and terrible weather. A lot of affluent people leave the state and retire to Florida. I'm not sure if the article's analysis is really concerned with these nuances.

> Illinois has high taxes and terrible weather Illinois has a flat income tax; at $135k income you would only be beat by the states that have no income tax (like Florida). Most of the states on that list also have weather that is either terrible in the summer or terrible in the winter, so I doubt that weather is really a factor in people moving.

You'd be surprised; I've met plenty of people that talk about how much they like warm weather and want to move south for that reason. Personally, I lived in Arizona for a while and have no desire to live in a hot climate again.