51–60 of 119 posts
Don't agree, comparing histories is not a reliable way to predict the future, I think we'll see the growth of governance level disruption, a pushback that will encourage home grown solutions for countries that are not necessarily aligned with US interests. That field is wide open and growing!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> it seems it is getting harder and harder to disrupt the Big Four Microsoft, IBM, Oracle... What is the other one? Or, right, wrong decade. (My point is, it completely not obvious if it is getting harder to disrupt the incumbents.)
> Microsoft, IBM, Oracle... What is the other one? Cisco, of course.
I've been thinking along the same line, albeit on a more personal take as a software engineer. Basically, starting around 15 years ago, there's the proliferation of bootcamps teaching fullstack development, because software startups were the new hot thing, and they desperately need generalist engineers that were capable of spinning up web app quickly. Rails was the hot thing those days because of this as well. Hence…
Isn't the perception of a saturated market persistent though? I mean, there were many social media apps when Facebook started. Twitter was created when microblogging had already become a trend.
I've been thinking along the same line, albeit on a more personal take as a software engineer. Basically, starting around 15 years ago, there's the proliferation of bootcamps teaching fullstack development, because software startups were the new hot thing, and they desperately need generalist engineers that were capable of spinning up web app quickly. Rails was the hot thing those days because of this as well. Hence…
Sure, that's what happened.
But what jumps out for me is that, at both ends of that range, users are relying on remote stuff for processing and data storage. Whether it's mainframe terminals or smartphones, you're still using basically a dumb terminal.
In the middle, there were personal computers. As in under our control. That's often not the case now. People's accounts get nuked, and they lose years of work. And there's typically no recourse.
As I see it, the next step is P2P.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't the perception of a saturated market persistent though? I mean, there were many social media apps when Facebook started. Twitter was created when microblogging had already become a trend.
Anecdotally, it seems like the rate of disruption in this space has been steadily slowing down.
I've been thinking along the same line, albeit on a more personal take as a software engineer. Basically, starting around 15 years ago, there's the proliferation of bootcamps teaching fullstack development, because software startups were the new hot thing, and they desperately need generalist engineers that were capable of spinning up web app quickly. Rails was the hot thing those days because of this as well. Hence…
I believe at least one more revolution would still be possible before we have a long period of evolution. It will be a shift from centralization to de-centralization (one more time), actually to federation. De-centralized federated systems might be able to get social networking and payments to the level where it finally works well and only needs to be gradually improved.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Until I have something resembling Iron Man's Jarvis with at least a subvocal interface, I think there's still a long way to go for "continuous" computing. I currently still have to pull out a discrete device and remove myself from other interactions to deal with it. If I'm not on that device all the time, then I don't have continuous computing. Maybe continuously available computing is more accurate?
Right -- today you need to remember to charge your phone, you don't take it everywhere (and don't have signal everywhere, especially internationally), and you need to take it out of your pocket to use it, and type into it with your thumbs (though voice "assistants" are here, and some people get use out of them.) The end-goal is being able to talk to anyone at any time, remember anything you've seen before, and know t…
The bottom line is everyone does have their phone charged and with them always, is probably out of their pocket most of the time anyway, and can get the answer to pretty much any question you can phrase that someone has already answered. The voice assistants will continue to improve, but some people actually prefer thumb-typing for various reasons.
And the "improvements" you suggest probably bring even more problems from privacy, security, and mental health issues than any plausible benefits they might provide.
That's possible, but I see things that lead to me think that we're not there.
Primarily, there are a number of rather serious problems with the cloud, some of which are inherent to the paradigm and likely can't be resolved -- we'll just have to live with them.
When a paradigm has such problems, the possibility always exists that a new way of doing things can come about that sidesteps those problems.