"right now, there are very few people, perhaps only dozens, for whom this phone is the right phone, given the current level of software support." I think he greatly underestimates the number of people with the interest and ability to do this kind of work. If it's easily available, I'll probably get one and hack on it, and maybe contribute to some projects. And I'm far from something special or unusual.
The countless commercial failures of such projects since OpenMoko proves otherwise.
1. The thing is reasonably cheap with "good enough" specs which makes it far easier to just buy it and accept that it may be just a toy in the worst case.
2. It's likely that the specs will be "good enough" for some time so the Hardware will not be terribly outdated the time the Software reaches a usable state.
3. Smartphone hardware and manufacturing matured a lot in general so it's likely easier to get sth. working with a limited budget. In comparison the Openmoko devices were reasonably advanced for their time but were also ridden by hardware bugs.