What happens if we run the simulation backwards through time?
Browser-based climate change simulation
51–60 of 276 posts
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
It helps to show that we're screwed. But the degree to how screwed we are can vary a bit.
We're not screwed if it's limited to just a degree. Things start getting dicy at 2 degrees, more severe at 3, and so on. To what extent society can adapt and mitigate is a guess. The climate modes are about the climate, not how human civilization handles it.
We are are already screwed at the current temperature the 2 degrees is just the point that the politicians thought they could sell to each other.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#53The authors don't include some extremely nasty feedback loops the appear to currently be happening. For example, methane release from permafrost melt. As a result, the simulation appears to be misleadingly optimistic. - This tool is based on climate interactive's previous one, C-Road. - in the C-Road simulation when you click on parameters -> assumptions to add parameters about methane release through permafrost melt…
While negative feedback loops are big in the media, they are not well understood and difficult to model. Also, other feedback mechanisms seem to get little attention. Are we only looking to model the feedback mechanisms that reinforce a narrative of cataclysm? Don't other feedback mechanisms exist that lessen CO2 concentrations, or temperature dissipation?
No. They aren't "only looking at feedback mechanisms that reinforce cataclysm." Modelers include every feedback that they can quantify well enough to include and the ones they don't understand well enough are studied carefully to be able to work out what the uncertainties are.
Scientists 50 years ago predicted that we would be at around 1C (1.8F) of warming by 2020 with a 40% over preindustrial co2 level. That's exactly what we have now. They predicted almost perfectly today's climate decades before it came to pass. That may not seem like a big deal until you understand that global temperatures haven't been this high in 130,000 years.
It isn't being recognized properly yet in the media, but the stunning accuracy of predictions by climate modelers is one of the greatest achievements in the history Earth sciences.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#54it'd be nice to have a body count somewhere...
Well a good start would be to try to predict agriculture outputs with those temperature. Honestly I tried asking this question but got no answer.
Cereals might be just fine, and growing food in places where it's not possible to grow food is also a solution. But I'm terribly curious about the impact on food.
Heatwaves will probably cause a lot of deaths at first, but once it happens, there are easy things cities can do to mitigate them.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#55I'm curious what those carbon removal techs are exactly.
Because a lot of the CO2 tends to stay in the atmosphere.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#56Refuses to run for me. with Mozilla/5.0 (X11; Linux x86_64; rv:71.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/71.0
"Detected Characteristics - Mobile browser"
Don't tell me the web developers now assume that Linux == Android...
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#57If you drag all of the bars to their ideal position (lowest on the bad things, highest on the good things) the temperature still goes up by more than a degree.
There is warming that we are committed to at this point even if we could magically turn off the tap and stop emitting greenhouse gasses all of the sudden.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#58What happens if we run the simulation backwards through time?
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Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#59Interesting tool. It basically says you can: - Tax coal, oil, natural gas, bioenergy - Subsidize renewables, nuclear, new technology - Increase efficiency and electrification of transports, buildings, and industry - Reduce population growth - Reduce economic growth - Reduce deforestation - Increase afforestation For an effect that puts us at +2.1C by 2100 https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?p1=120..…
There comes a point where the model no longer accepts any progress beyond a +1.0C increase. No matter how many additional actions taken, the floor is +1.0C. It seems the immediate extinction of the human race would still result in an increase in temperature. Is there research that backs this up?
Its basic physics. We have more heat trapping gasses literally all around us, in our very air. This will cause less snow and ice cover, meaning less reflectivity, meaning more warming where there used to be ice.
The polar regions will be decimated even if we manage to save ourselves.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#60High taxation of fossil energy together with rolling-out of new energy/carbon-removal technology seem to be a real way out of this catastrophe. Does anyone have a list of startups and established companies actively working on any of those crucial solutions? Only found this through a quick Github search: https://github.com/flamato/awesome-climate-change-ressources...
Don't solutions already exist? There is a lot to do with engine size and vehicle size and weight, especially in the US. Nuclear energy and trains are possible, even if they require electrifying the railroads. Drastically reduce beef consumption is also a thing to do. Not sure about those "carbon removal" techs. A lot of the CO2 tends to go in the atmosphere. The biggest problem is a political one: You can't fight une…
> The biggest problem is a political one: You can't fight unemployment and inequality and try to reduce emissions.
Why do you believe this is true? It seems to me like many efforts to reduce emissions are also likely to reduce inequality, some also increase employment. For instance:
* Make public transport free and increased capacity, good on all three counts
* CO2 tax on big emitters will reduce profits of these companies, which are usually high margin industries with few unskilled/low-pay workers
* Higher taxes on air travel affect poor people less than rich people
* Current trends point towards rich countries committing to subsidise emissions reductions in poor countries