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End of a Decade

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Re: End of a Decade

#51

Post by randomsearch »

rhlsthrm wrote: post #50
randomsearch wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2020s = VR

Do you think VR will be more mainstream than AR? I tend to believe that once AR becomes really good it will be more mainstream than VR because it can integrate with your normal life and provide useful things like a HUD and also crazy cool things like interactive holograms.

I’m not an expert on VR, but it seems to me that the consensus is that AR will truly mature after VR. So maybe it doesn’t make sense to differentiate, because at that point AR will be “VR-lite” rather than VR evolving as “AR-heavy”.

My personal opinion is that full immersive VR will be more compelling, as it’s going to all be about people interacting and collaborating over distance, and VR will work better for that.

Re: End of a Decade

#52

Post by gsich »

pluma wrote: post #48
gsich wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not wrong. Gregorian starts at year 1. If you want a decade to be 10 years, it can't end with 10, that would be only 9 years. Daily usage differs from that definition of course, but that's not the point.

Yes wrong. The first decade was either 9 or 10 years (depending on whether you want to be weird and include 1 BC), every decade after that was 10 years starting at 'X0 and ending at 'X9. This is how the common usage defines the term. A lot of concepts in daily human lives get fuzzy near the edges. That's not a failing on humans, that's how language works. This isn't scientific or perfectly rational, yes, but neither…

Yes this is common usage. I'll use it that way too. It's still wrong based on the calendar.

It's not an edge case though.

Re: End of a Decade

#53

Post by gsich »

summonedskul wrote: post #44
gsich wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not wrong. Gregorian starts at year 1. If you want a decade to be 10 years, it can't end with 10, that would be only 9 years. Daily usage differs from that definition of course, but that's not the point.

No you are wrong - The word 'decade' is not tied to any specific set of 10 years, so you can mark off any set of 10 years and call it a decade: 2000-2009, or 2005-2014, for example. By your logic the year 2000 should be part of the 90's which it wasn't.

I'm not wrong. Read the "specs".

>By your logic the year 2000 should be part of the 90's which it wasn't.

It was according to the gregorian calendar.

Re: End of a Decade

#54

Post by SamuelAdams »

agentultra wrote: post #46

Teaching our kids about Siri and Alexa... and how to subvert it. By not participating. Reading books. Enjoying time together at a park. Finding mirth in games and late night conversations. By teaching them to pick up their own groceries, shop local, use the library, see local performances, and enjoying our neighbourhood. If 2010’s were all about staying in and binging on Netflix I hope the next decade will be about g…

The author's later point is that this may not be an option.

"Where a home just has one of these [AI / connected home]. Like an in-sink trash disposal, or an answering machine."

Consider phones. In the early 2000's, most people had a cell phone. By 2010, most people have a smart phone. These devices are much more capable than their predecessors. I've read books (Hans Rosling, Factfulness) that suggested communities with access to smartphones have a 3% GDP increase over communities with cell phones. That number may seem small, but remember it's a global scale. 3% is a significant amount.

The current state of AI is where cell phones were 20 years ago. We may get to a point where not using AI (as you said, "not participating") may put yourself at a clear disadvantage - you will not be as capable as your peers.

It's sort of like those 50-60 year olds in the workforce who refuse to use a computer. They've always done their job a particular way, but they are not as productive as some of the younger hires who use computers. Then they are shocked when they are laid off - their current (disadvantaged) output is far below what is expected, since technology has become ubiquitous and people expect you to be able to use a computer to do your job.

Re: End of a Decade

#55

Post by buboard »

rvz wrote: post #47

> The healthcare system is broken in ways that are hard to fix. So we need more of the same old FAANG guys to 'fix' this? Do we really want our health data to be controlled in the hands of these FAANG companies because they are able to disrupt anything they touch? I hope not. > What should we take away from the 2010 decade? 2010s: Was the discovery of democratising access to anything by 'programming an app for that'…

> Do we really want our health data to be controlled in the hands of these FAANG

Then we should stop deliberately giving it to them? E.g. in the name of privacy, Google has secured health data access for its own machine learning systems , to the exclusion of everyone else who is working on health ML. Laws like HIPPA were meant to facilitate the anonymous sharing of health data, not to block it. Health feels like a hugely lost opportunity exactly because nobody wants to touch that data with the current legal repercusions.

Re: End of a Decade

#57

Post by g4d »

thundergolfer wrote: post #31
csomar wrote: post #25

> With 6 billion people on the planet Did he just miss 1.7 billion people?

Yes, yes he did. To be honest this post is riddled with mistakes and weird assertions. It’s not very good.

I'm not sure I'd go as far as to say that it's not very good and anyway it's provided some good discussion here, so I've enjoyed that.

Re: End of a Decade

#58

Post by varjag »

imtringued wrote: post #45
varjag wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Its almost hard to imagine what life was like before things like twitter, uber, spotify, youtube, and to think that they were either only a few years old or barely taking their first steps at the beginning of the decade is mind-blowing. All things you listed were founded in the previous decade, and indeed nothing in tech of this decade would be shocking to someone in 2009. Based on this I expect the next decade wil…

The difference is that it is now part of daily life, even in developing nations. In the 00s it was mostly the early adopters in rich western countries that were using modern tech.

Not in 2009..

Re: End of a Decade

#59

Post by buboard »

chansiky wrote: post #15

I think for sure the rise of app and web economies have been the defining characteristic of this decade. They have had an unexpected monopoly on our attentions. From memes, to changes in consumer behavior, to social uprisings, to mass shootings, to instagram influencers, to determining elections, it would take a lot to convince me that there was not a single greater force that influenced us more in the past ten years…

The web preexisted. The app economy is only $16billion and probably past its peak already. There is a rising saas economy, but also of dubious sustainability beyond a downturn

Re: End of a Decade

#60

Post by buboard »

newshorts wrote: post #3

The comments about neo liberalization at the end make me wonder if the “20s” will be remember as an era of Anti globalization and nationalism. We saw it start to take hold about halfway through this decade and I wonder if the trend will continue.

My crystal ball says remote work will revolutionize lifestyles, we ll see huge changes in health tech (long overdue), and in governance. Nomadism is a 2010s trend and ,even if not scalable, it shows the way. The renationalisation experiments did not bear fruit, i think it s becoming increasingly evident. I think the 20s will be a good time for freedoms
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