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Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

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Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#51

Post by sremani »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #6
mc32 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...

India, still a youngish population compared to China but with 1.4 billion people and still rapidly developing. Also helps they're strong in service industries, deliverable to the world.

I grew up in India and have family in India. India is not ready for PRIME TIME not in my life time.

It's complicated, its nation of nations. Still caste is a still is strong basis of political patronage. It has come a long way, but has long way to go!

India's Navy is a joke, Airforce is a flying junkyard and Army is an amalgam of bad ideas, and pension commitments.

I do not see India going anywhere. India has been hope of Asia since 1950s, and it will remain that way into 2050!

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#52

Post by beamatronic »

randogogogo wrote: post #4
H8crilA wrote: post #2

Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…

Queue the ZeroHedge style conspiracy theories and watch the sparks fly. That idea of a dethroned dollar is interesting, any thoughts at was is likely to take over? The Euro?

Coming from ZH? it must be gold.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#53

Post by roenxi »

dageshi wrote: post #29
anonuser123456 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of these days the gold bugs will be right. This might be the one...

I was one once, they may sort of be right. Gold will never become a "standard" again, but it could be extremely useful for preserving wealth from one standard to another. Gold has always been touted as a hedge against inflation, it's not, it's a hedge against financial system instability, inflation being a major symptom of such instability.

Since around 1970 (US leaves the gold standard) gold has slightly outpaced inflation according to the US BLS inflation calculator [0].

Calculator thinks $6,000/kg => $41,000/kg, actual price $6,000/kg to $48,000/kg. That makes sense because 'true' inflation (consumer goods + assets) probably outpaces official inflation (consumer goods only).

Gold can't exactly get more or less valuable over time. It is a rock. We have no practical uses for it.

[0] https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#54

Post by beamatronic »

moreorless wrote: post #15
toomuchtodo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India, still a youngish population compared to China but with 1.4 billion people and still rapidly developing. Also helps they're strong in service industries, deliverable to the world.

Doing the needful?

I haven’t heard that one in about 10 years.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#55

Post by jstewartmobile »

H8crilA wrote: post #2

Mortgage debt will probably not be a problem in this cycle. People have this bias to remember most recent event, but it's rarely the same thing twice in a row: https://imgur.com/a/0dT7iHK Corporate debt may be: https://imgur.com/a/b54hMSg And frankly with the amount of outstanding US govt debt and underfunded pension & healthcare liabilities the USD may either get dethroned and devalued or sent into the negative inte…

I'd put my bets on student loan debt. The push for forgiveness is so strong, there must be some other force at play--something more than just pandering to millenials.

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#57

Post by notyourday »

api wrote: post #39

I'm a founder and have been getting spammed hard-core lately for small business loans. There are many companies offering 5-6 digit business loans and revolving lines of credit to basically anyone who can fog glass, and there are salespeople and spammers pushing them. I'd say I average 2-3 e-mails or cold calls per day. Feels like they're trying to stuff loans down my throat. I've spoken to other founders and small bu…

Arent these loans based on receivables factoring?

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#58

Post by awinder »

landryraccoon wrote: post #38
mc32 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if the USD becomes weak, who out there could be in a position to become stronger? I don’t see any candidate. Euro growth is weak. CN bookkeeping’s suspect...

> CN bookkeeping’s suspect... IMO Americans are biased to overweight this. It doesn't matter as long as China can keep up appearances better than other countries for long enough. Investors will happily invest in a bubble believing that they are smart enough to get out before everyone else if things go south. Bad bookkeeping doesn't keep the NBA and Activision from kowtowing to China, I don't see why it would keep peo…

1. Yeah plenty of non-Americans think this too, _maybe_ if you said “westerners” it’d be defensible, but it’d still be wrong.

2. The nba & activision are selling goods to China, or maybe they put a little money into real assets to reach that audience. They’re not investing in Chinese financial instruments which is what the entire thread is about

Re: Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up

#59

Post by roenxi »

whiskyant wrote: post #28
richardknop wrote: post #23

I bought some gold today. Unrelated to this but I have recently decided to have 10% of my portfolio in gold as a safe guard.

Gold/Silver also tanked with the 2008 recession though.

Up to 2006 gold was priced less than $20,000/kg and after 2010 it has never dropped below $35,000/kg.

Anyone who had any large % of their wealth in gold felt & feels very, very clever. Saying 'tanked' is appropriate for day-trader thinking but for investors (which in my book implies return periods of 5-30 years) looking to preserve wealth they'd barely notice.

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